1875 County Road 3155 · Dawson, TX 76639

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,158 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1955 0.46 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits just under a mile from Navarro Mills Lake! Nestled on a quiet country road between Corsicana and Waco, this unfinished home is ready for someone with vision to bring it to life. Whether you're looking to create a weekend lake retreat, an investment property, or your own custom country getaway, the groundwork is already here—just waiting for the right finishing touches. This home has the potential to be finished as a 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom residence. Surrounded by peaceful countryside, this property offers the kind of setting buyers are searching for—wide open skies, fresh air, and room to make it your own. With close proximity to the lake, you’ll enjoy easy access to fishing, boating, and outdoor recreation while still being conveniently located between two growing areas. Located just about 2 hours from both Dallas and Fort Worth, this property makes for an ideal escape from the city without sacrificing accessibility. The structure is in place but not complete, giving you the flexibility to finish it out to your style and needs from the ground up. If you’ve been looking for a project with potential in a great location, this is your chance to create something special near the lake. Bring your ideas, your plans, and turn this into the country retreat you’ve been dreaming of. Buyer and buyer’s agent to verify all information.

Key facts

• Peaceful countryside
• Navarro mills lake
• Unfinished home

Tags

• NAVARRO MILLS LAKE
• UNFINISHED HOME
• PEACEFUL COUNTRYSIDE
• EASY ACCESS TO FISHING
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash; Second mortgage: No; Loan type: Treat As Clear
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Co-op electric; Co-op water; Electricity available and connected; Septic
• Home design: Single family residence; Attached property; One story; Built in 1955; Located in the Smith subdivision, faces medium geocode confidence
• Construction: Built in 1955
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lot (~0.465 acres); Navarro Mills waterbody nearby; Horse permitted

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Natural woodwork; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; 2 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: No appliances included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#493 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dawson ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #558 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dawson El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 281 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 59% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 522 units permitted in Navarro County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Navarro County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.47%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $63,660
• Equity at exit: $67,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.07×
• Total profit: $169,537
• Equity at exit: $145,709

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76639

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,082 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $864/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $629

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $75,000 Active 1398-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1398 chars)

    Opportunity awaits just under a mile from Navarro Mills Lake! Nestled on a quiet country road between Corsicana and Waco, this unfinished home is ready for someone with vision to bring it to life. Whether you're looking to create a weekend lake retreat, an investment property, or your own custom country getaway, the groundwork is already here—just waiting for the right finishing touches. This home has the potential to be finished as a 3-bedroom, 3-bathroom residence. Surrounded by peaceful countryside, this property offers the kind of setting buyers are searching for—wide open skies, fresh air, and room to make it your own. With close proximity to the lake, you’ll enjoy easy access to fishing, boating, and outdoor recreation while still being conveniently located between two growing areas. Located just about 2 hours from both Dallas and Fort Worth, this property makes for an ideal escape from the city without sacrificing accessibility. The structure is in place but not complete, giving you the flexibility to finish it out to your style and needs from the ground up. If you’ve been looking for a project with potential in a great location, this is your chance to create something special near the lake. Bring your ideas, your plans, and turn this into the country retreat you’ve been dreaming of. Buyer and buyer’s agent to verify all information.

17. 2026-05-13
    listed $75,000 Active
18. 2026-04-30
    listed $75,000 Active
19. 2007-08-01
    soldstatus
20. 1999-12-29
    soldstatus
21. 1996-09-13
    soldstatus
22. 1991-08-29
    soldstatus
23. 1971-07-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $864 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$508/yr (+$42/mo · 58.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$864
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,039
• − Management: −$1,039
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $3,284
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$788
• After-tax cash flow: $3,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dawson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816380
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,210
• Composite: 28.45/100
• National rank: #6754
• State rank: #558 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dawson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #493
• US rank: #9763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,005

Population outlook (Navarro County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,397 people
• By 2030: 48,096 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 47,394 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 46,541 · -3.8%
• By 2075: 44,940 · -7.1%
• By 2100: 42,288 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Navarro

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.7% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -33.1pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+48.8 2012: R+42.4 2008: R+33.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.45%
• Current HPI: 225.4263
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $75,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $75,000 NTREIS
• 2007-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1971-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $864 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.