11 Woodland Cir S · Mountain Lodge Park, NY 10950

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 798 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1935 0.25 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NICE CIOUNTRY HOME RIGHT NOW SET UP FOR SEASIONAL USE . COULD MAKE NICE YEAR ROUND HOME. HOME COMES COMPLETELY FURNISHED OWNER SAYS YOU CAN PUT IN YOUR OWN WELL. GREAT INVESTMENT PROPERTY NEW HOT WATE HEATER & PLUMBING WELL MAINTAI NED

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1935

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association covers water

Exterior

• Parking: Private parking; 1-car carport; Total 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric service by Orange & Rockland; Public water available; No sewer service
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Wood siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard; Garden; Sloped lot; Wooded lot; Views; Borders state land; Near public transit; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Loft; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Utilities: electricity available, water available, private trash collection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 5.3% in Mountain Lodge Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#308 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Washingtonville Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #288 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Round Hill Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 653 students, 38% FRL); Washingtonville Middle School (math 21% / reading 50%, grade F, #473 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 900 students, 35% FRL); Washingtonville Senior High School (math 92% / reading 89%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,318 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 34% FRL vs 16% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $85k implies a 240% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.09%
• DSCR: 3.45
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Sylvan Trl	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	784 (-2%)	4mo	$259,900	$332	76
14 Woodland South Cir	0.02mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-6%)	13mo	$40,000	$53	73
3 Sunrise Trl	0.70mi	2/1.0	802 (+0%)	6mo	$210,000	$262	61
59 Orchard Trl	0.47mi	2/1.0	850 (+6%)	8mo	$217,500	$256	61
22 Claremont Trl	0.51mi	2/1.0	836 (+5%)	10mo	$250,000	$299	60
70 Sylvan Trl	0.35mi	2/1.0	700 (-12%)	9mo	$210,000	$300	56
9 Ludwig Dr	0.73mi	2/1.0	838 (+5%)	2mo	$285,000	$340	55
15 Herbst Dr	0.70mi	2/1.0	876 (+10%)	2mo	$339,000	$387	50
4 Wildwood Trl	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	883 (+11%)	11mo	$255,000	$289	42
5 Beverly Trl	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (+13%)	3mo	$315,000	$350	41
14 Claremont Trl	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	911 (+14%)	13mo	$255,000	$280	35
20 Windsor Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+13%)	9mo	$284,000	$316	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $52,504
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $122,141
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10950

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,314 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,050/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $1,093

Break-even live

Break-even rent $931

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Woodland Cir S Monroe, NY	3.0	1.0	750	$2,100	$2.80	14d	1	0.03mi
11 Utopian Trl Monroe, NY	1.0	1.0	682	$1,500	$2.20	14d	1	0.07mi
12 Utopian Trl Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$2,150	$2.53	14d	1	0.10mi
26 Oakwood Trl S Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	696	$1,750	$2.51	14d	1	0.16mi
357 Mountain Lodge Rd Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	760	$2,000	$2.63	14d	1	0.37mi
25 Gloria Trl Monroe, NY	3.0	1.0	835	$2,200	$2.63	14d	1	0.41mi
66 Higgins Trl Blooming Grove, NY	2.0	1.5	800	$1,700	$2.12	14d	1	0.48mi
32 Cedar Trl Monroe, NY	3.0	1.0	825	$2,200	$2.67	23d	1	0.49mi
2 Edgewood Trl Monroe, NY	2.0	1.0	959	$2,400	$2.50	14d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-28
    status Active
18. 2026-05-07
    listed $85,000 Active
19. 2002-12-20
    soldstatus $25,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    NICE CIOUNTRY HOME RIGHT NOW SET UP FOR SEASIONAL USE . COULD MAKE NICE YEAR ROUND HOME. HOME COMES COMPLETELY FURNISHED OWNER SAYS YOU CAN PUT IN YOUR OWN WELL. GREAT INVESTMENT PROPERTY NEW HOT WATE HEATER & PLUMBING WELL MAINTAI NED

20. 2002-11-21
    historical 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    NICE CIOUNTRY HOME RIGHT NOW SET UP FOR SEASIONAL USE . COULD MAKE NICE YEAR ROUND HOME. HOME COMES COMPLETELY FURNISHED OWNER SAYS YOU CAN PUT IN YOUR OWN WELL. GREAT INVESTMENT PROPERTY NEW HOT WATE HEATER & PLUMBING WELL MAINTAI NED

21. 2002-10-05
    listed $25,000 244-char remark

    Show marketing remark (244 chars)

    NICE CIOUNTRY HOME RIGHT NOW SET UP FOR SEASIONAL USE . COULD MAKE NICE YEAR ROUND HOME. HOME COMES COMPLETELY FURNISHED OWNER SAYS YOU CAN PUT IN YOUR OWN WELL. GREAT INVESTMENT PROPERTY NEW HOT WATE HEATER & PLUMBING WELL MAINTAI NED

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,050 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,050 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,767
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$3,050
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,221
• − Management: −$2,221
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $12,615
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,028
• After-tax cash flow: $10,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washingtonville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630030
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $89,379
• Composite: 48.15/100
• National rank: #2178
• State rank: #288 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mountain Lodge Park

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #308
• US rank: #5092

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mountain Lodge Park, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,136
• Household income: $78,931
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3149.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · German/W. Germanic 52% Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.81%
• Current HPI: 314.2081
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.50%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+240.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $85,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-12-20 Sold (MLS) $25,000 HGMLS
• 2002-11-21 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2002-10-05 Listed $25,000 HGMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,050 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.