12622 Timberwood Ct · Meadow Oaks, FL 34669

$215,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,108 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1980 4,623 sqft lot Est $242k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NESTLED ON A CORNER LOT WITH GORGEOUS POND & WOODED VIEWS: THIS LOVELY 2/2/1 IS LOCATED IN A FAMILY NEIGHBORHOOD; OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH TILE ENTRY, LIVING ROOM/DINING ROOM COMBO WITH SOLAR TUBE PLUS TRUE EAT-IN-KITCHEN; 7X20 ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM IS DUCTED & INCLUDED IN LA; 12X21 VINYL ENCLOSED SCREENED LANAI OVERLOOKS PEACEFUL REAR PRIVACY; FRESH PAINT INSIDE & OUTSIDE; CEILING FANS GALORE; CERAMIC TILE IN KITCHEN & DINING ROOM; NEUTRAL CARPETING; OVER SIZED GARAGE & DOUBLE DRIVEWAY; HOME IS ON DEAD END STREET & AVAILABLE WITH MOST FURNISHINGS. NOT A FORECLOSURE. NOT A SHORT SALE.

Key facts

• Enclosed sunroom
• Screened lanai
• Versatile floor plan

Tags

• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• SCREENED LANAI
• FULL BATHROOM IN GARAGE
• VERSATILE FLOOR PLAN
• NEWER AC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces west; PUD zoning
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.11-acre lot
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Formal/dining area; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat; Window treatments; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($263/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.6% in Meadow Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#794 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moon Lake Elementary School (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 579 students, 70% FRL); Crews Lake Middle School. (math 47% / reading 39%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 834 students, 67% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 48% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 303 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $215k implies a 252% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,787 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,544
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11972 Lakewood Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,072 (-3%)	4mo	$190,000	$177	73
12830 Lake Tree Ln	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+1%)	1mo	$145,000	$129	68
12412 Hollybrook Ln	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,169 (+6%)	7mo	$255,000	$218	63
12800 Kellywood Cir	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,002 (-10%)	6mo	$215,000	$215	63
12439 Willow Tree Ave	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,206 (+9%)	8mo	$225,000	$187	62
12529 Knollbrook Ln	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,032 (-7%)	9mo	$205,000	$199	61
12836 Kellywood Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	976 (-12%)	3mo	$215,000	$220	52
12260 Great Basin Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (+10%)	0mo	$271,490	$222	50
12284 Great Basin Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (+10%)	1mo	$285,990	$234	48
12192 Isle Royale Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (+10%)	0mo	$259,990	$213	48
12308 Great Basin Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (+10%)	1mo	$272,000	$222	47
12205 Isle Royale Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (+10%)	2mo	$270,000	$221	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-33,425
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-27,234
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,888 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,029/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,860

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $83	+0% $22	+5% $-39	+10% $-100
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-53	+0% $22	+5% $96	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $77	base $22	+0.5pp $-34	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13341 Tropical Breeze Way Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,000	$1.37	7d	1	0.77mi
12405 Shearwater Dr Unit 12405 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	5d	1	0.88mi
11550 Baywood Meadows Dr #7 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,495	$1.48	26d	1	1.05mi
12135 Environmental Dr #4 New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,800	$1.45	26d	1	1.09mi
12065 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,200	$1.53	19d	1	1.29mi
12245 Grizzly Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1207	$2,280	$1.89	26d	1	1.32mi
11630 Bayonet Ln New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.5	923	$1,150	$1.25	22d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $215,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $215,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $215,000 Active
16. 2015-03-31
    soldstatus $61,000
17. 2015-03-20
    soldstatus $61,000 Sold 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (625 chars)

    NESTLED ON A CORNER LOT WITH GORGEOUS POND & WOODED VIEWS: THIS LOVELY 2/2/1 IS LOCATED IN A FAMILY NEIGHBORHOOD; OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH TILE ENTRY, LIVING ROOM/DINING ROOM COMBO WITH SOLAR TUBE PLUS TRUE EAT-IN-KITCHEN; 7X20 ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM IS DUCTED & INCLUDED IN LA; 12X21 VINYL ENCLOSED SCREENED LANAI OVERLOOKS PEACEFUL REAR PRIVACY; FRESH PAINT INSIDE & OUTSIDE; CEILING FANS GALORE; CERAMIC TILE IN KITCHEN & DINING ROOM; NEUTRAL CARPETING; OVER SIZED GARAGE & DOUBLE DRIVEWAY; HOME IS ON DEAD END STREET & AVAILABLE WITH MOST FURNISHINGS. NOT A FORECLOSURE. NOT A SHORT SALE.

18. 2015-03-06
    historical Contingent - Inspections 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (625 chars)

    NESTLED ON A CORNER LOT WITH GORGEOUS POND & WOODED VIEWS: THIS LOVELY 2/2/1 IS LOCATED IN A FAMILY NEIGHBORHOOD; OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH TILE ENTRY, LIVING ROOM/DINING ROOM COMBO WITH SOLAR TUBE PLUS TRUE EAT-IN-KITCHEN; 7X20 ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM IS DUCTED & INCLUDED IN LA; 12X21 VINYL ENCLOSED SCREENED LANAI OVERLOOKS PEACEFUL REAR PRIVACY; FRESH PAINT INSIDE & OUTSIDE; CEILING FANS GALORE; CERAMIC TILE IN KITCHEN & DINING ROOM; NEUTRAL CARPETING; OVER SIZED GARAGE & DOUBLE DRIVEWAY; HOME IS ON DEAD END STREET & AVAILABLE WITH MOST FURNISHINGS. NOT A FORECLOSURE. NOT A SHORT SALE.

19. 2015-02-09
    listed $69,500 Active 625-char remark

    Show marketing remark (625 chars)

    NESTLED ON A CORNER LOT WITH GORGEOUS POND & WOODED VIEWS: THIS LOVELY 2/2/1 IS LOCATED IN A FAMILY NEIGHBORHOOD; OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH TILE ENTRY, LIVING ROOM/DINING ROOM COMBO WITH SOLAR TUBE PLUS TRUE EAT-IN-KITCHEN; 7X20 ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM IS DUCTED & INCLUDED IN LA; 12X21 VINYL ENCLOSED SCREENED LANAI OVERLOOKS PEACEFUL REAR PRIVACY; FRESH PAINT INSIDE & OUTSIDE; CEILING FANS GALORE; CERAMIC TILE IN KITCHEN & DINING ROOM; NEUTRAL CARPETING; OVER SIZED GARAGE & DOUBLE DRIVEWAY; HOME IS ON DEAD END STREET & AVAILABLE WITH MOST FURNISHINGS. NOT A FORECLOSURE. NOT A SHORT SALE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,029 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,029 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,029
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,812
• − Management: −$1,812
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$3,372
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$809
• After-tax cash flow: $1,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Meadow Oaks

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #794
• US rank: #18203

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadow Oaks, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+209.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-20 Sold (MLS) $61,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-06 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-09 Listed $69,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,029 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.