7 Horseshoe Dr · Holbrook, NY 11741

$605,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1995 9,148 sqft lot $323/sqft · 20% below area Est $761k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Hi Ranch for sale located on quiet block. Currently occupied and being sold as is.

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1995

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Aluminum siding construction
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Finished full basement; Crawl attic
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $605k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $376k (37.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $395k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $376k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#658 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Nokomis School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 527 students, 31% FRL); Seneca Middle School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B+, #136 of 729 statewide, top 20%, 973 students, 22% FRL); Sachem High School North (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,923 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($587k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $430k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $375,954 (37.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.18%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $760,535
• List price: $605,000
• Delta: -20.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
60 Holbrook Rd	0.06mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (+7%)	9mo	$590,000	$295	73
100 Lexington Ave	0.45mi	4/2.5	1,971 (+5%)	1mo	$735,000	$373	67
116B Holbrook Rd	0.21mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,062 (+10%)	2mo	$760,000	$369	67
2 Alan St	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,852 (-1%)	6mo	$695,000	$375	65
25 Windham Ln	0.69mi	4/1.5	1,925 (+3%)	1mo	$630,000	$327	60
110 Geery Ave	0.56mi	4/2.5	1,800 (-4%)	10mo	$750,000	$417	57
51 Avis Dr	0.34mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,704 (-9%)	10mo	$740,000	$434	56
1663 Claas Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,698 (-9%)	3mo	$735,000	$433	53
142 Pond Rd	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,718 (-8%)	14mo	$689,000	$401	50
149 Avenue C	0.74mi	4/1.5	1,703 (-9%)	4mo	$610,000	$358	45
20 Tarkington Rd	0.56mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,088 (+12%)	12mo	$680,000	$326	40
132 Smith Ave	0.49mi	4/3.0	1,600 (-14%)	13mo	$580,000	$363	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-162,604
• Equity at exit: $90,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-167,233
• Equity at exit: $52,309

Cash invested: $169,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11741

• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,173
• Tax from tax record: −$989 /mo · $11,867/yr
• Insurance: −$252
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$829
• Net cashflow: $-1,297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,587

Max offer price $375,954

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-954	-5% $-1,125	+0% $-1,297	+5% $-1,468	+10% $-1,639
Rent	-10% $-1,608	-5% $-1,452	+0% $-1,297	+5% $-1,141	+10% $-985
Rate	-1.0pp $-992	-0.5pp $-1,143	base $-1,297	+0.5pp $-1,453	+1.0pp $-1,613

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $151,250
• Closing costs: $18,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 Fairfield Dr Holbrook, NY	3.0	2.5	2200	$4,200	$1.91	26d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-02-23
   listed $605,000 Active 82-char remark
2. 2006-12-11
   soldstatus $430,000
3. 1995-05-02
   soldstatus $156,000
4. 1994-10-18
   soldstatus $43,500
5. 1994-06-06
   soldstatus $34,000
6. 1994-01-06
   soldstatus $80,000
7. 1990-10-12
   soldstatus $93,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,867 · $989/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,867 · $989/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,889
• − Property taxes: −$11,867
• − Insurance: −$3,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,788
• − Management: −$3,788
• − Depreciation: −$17,600
• Taxable loss: −$26,609
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,386
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holbrook

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #658
• US rank: #12283

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holbrook, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 26,667
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,667
• Household income: $144,346
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.71%
• Current HPI: 328.9231
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.30%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+547.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Listed $605,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $430,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $156,000 Public Records
• 1994-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $43,500 Public Records
• 1994-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 1994-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1990-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,867 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.