2430 Pine Grove Dr · Mount Shasta, CA 96067

$585,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,404 sqft · Manufactured · 91 Days on market

Built 2005 3.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Pine Grove property of 3+ acres with two separate homes! One a 3 bedroom, 2 bath with vaulted ceilings and 9 foot walls overlooking the 3 acres. It has a large, expansive great room that leads into a spacious kitchen with large pantry and entry into mudroom and laundry room. Plenty of closets and storage throughout the home. The second home is a 800 ft. ² building completely contained and permitted studio, 1 bath home with a full kitchen and great room. Home inspection and pest inspection have been completed. Most items have been repaired per owner. Located just a few miles from town this property has a lot to offer . The accuracy of the information provided is deemed re

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Two separate homes
• Expansive great room

Tags

• 3 ACRES
• TWO SEPARATE HOMES
• EXPANSIVE GREAT ROOM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE PANTRY
• MUDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R1; Directions: Lassen Lane to Pine Grove

Exterior

• Home design: Single-story; Manufactured home (residential)
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Sloped lot; Lot approximately 3.3 acres; Lot dimensions approximately 492 x 393

Interior

• Interior features: Electric range; Refrigerator; Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $585k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $585k).
• Recommended offer: $532k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.8% in Mount Shasta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#405 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Siskiyou Union High (rural): math 25% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #763 of 1,400 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($532k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $532,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.44%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-4,180
• Equity at exit: $87,225

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $112,543
• Equity at exit: $50,580

Cash invested: $163,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96067

• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,068
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,392/yr
• Insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,334
• Net cashflow: $1,426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,550

Max offer price $585,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,757	-5% $1,591	+0% $1,426	+5% $1,260	+10% $1,094
Rent	-10% $924	-5% $1,175	+0% $1,426	+5% $1,677	+10% $1,928
Rate	-1.0pp $1,720	-0.5pp $1,574	base $1,426	+0.5pp $1,274	+1.0pp $1,120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $146,250
• Closing costs: $17,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
940 Douglas Ln Mount Shasta, CA	3.0	3.0	2526	$6,000	$2.38	21d	1	1.27mi
700 N Old Stage Rd Mount Shasta, CA	3.0	2.0	2527	$6,750	$2.67	13d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $585,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $585,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $585,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $585,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $585,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $585,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $585,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $585,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $585,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $585,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $585,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $585,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $585,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $585,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $585,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $585,000 Active 71 DOM
17. 2026-03-20
    listed $585,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,392 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,446 · $370/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,054/yr (+$88/mo · 31.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $76,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,769
• − Property taxes: −$3,392
• − Insurance: −$2,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,100
• − Management: −$6,100
• − Depreciation: −$17,018
• Taxable income: $7,946
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,907
• After-tax cash flow: $15,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Siskiyou Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636940
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,293
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9605
• State rank: #763 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Mount Shasta

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #13833

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,800
• Population (ZIP): 7,800

Population outlook (Siskiyou County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,337 people
• By 2030: 36,930 · -6.1%
• By 2040: 32,367 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 29,030 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 23,534 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 19,312 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Pacific Islander 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Russian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Siskiyou

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 38.8% · R 58.0% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+20.7 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.87%
• Current HPI: 115.4662
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $585,000 SMLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,392 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.