5208 9th St · Keyes, CA 95328

$237,600

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1977 5,662 sqft lot Est $458k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks

Located at 5208 9th St in the charming city of Keyes, California, this HUD-owned residential property presents a great investment opportunity for the discerning buyer or the handy homeowner ready to invest some sweat equity. Imagine the possibilities within the living room, where a beamed ceiling adds architectural interest and a sense of spaciousness, creating an inviting atmosphere for relaxation and entertaining. Envision yourself enjoying the sunroom, a tranquil space bathed in natural light, perfect for cultivating indoor plants or simply unwinding with a good book. The kitchen features a wood-like wall, adding a touch of rustic charm and character to this essential space. The bar also

Key facts

• Numerous sheds
• Balcony
• Sunroom

Tags

• BEAMED CEILING
• SUNROOM
• WOOD-LIKE WALL
• PATIO
• BALCONY
• NUMEROUS SHEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.0% in Keyes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,280 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,290 (7.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.75%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $457,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5415 Tanya Way	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,399 (-3%)	6mo	$445,000	$318	65
5405 Cora Way	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,399 (-3%)	15mo	$502,000	$359	64
5412 7th St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	14mo	$400,000	$298	64
5341 10th St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,363 (-5%)	21mo	$385,000	$282	63
4513 Christine Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,264 (-12%)	17mo	$410,000	$324	52
5517 8th St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,653 (+15%)	5mo	$415,000	$251	52
5521 8th St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,300 (-10%)	15mo	$435,000	$335	48
5530 Stella Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+11%)	12mo	$525,000	$328	46
5519 Stella Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+11%)	15mo	$530,000	$331	45
5121 Bogart Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,259 (-13%)	5mo	$357,000	$284	42
4908 Audra Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+12%)	16mo	$485,000	$302	37
5523 9th St	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	22mo	$257,000	$206	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $146,097
• Equity at exit: $214,049

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.27×
• Total profit: $416,914
• Equity at exit: $461,605

Cash invested: $66,528 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95328

• Home prices YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,246
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,585/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,870

Max offer price $237,600

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,400
• Closing costs: $7,128
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5232 Clark St Keyes, CA	3.0	2.0	1133	$2,200	$1.94	14d	1	0.10mi
3824 Hollywood Dr Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,220	$2.02	44d	1	0.60mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,585 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,806 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$220/yr (+$18/mo · 13.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,309
• − Property taxes: −$1,585
• − Insurance: −$1,188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,115
• − Management: −$2,115
• − Depreciation: −$6,912
• Taxable loss: −$789
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$189
• After-tax cash flow: $3,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Keyes

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1280
• US rank: #26476

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keyes, CA
• City population: 3,939
• Population (ZIP): 3,939

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% Two or more races 33% White 16% Asian 13% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada
• Languages at home: 29% English-only · Spanish 60% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.97%
• Current HPI: 418.8737
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,585 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.