1150 W Winton Ave #123 · Hayward, CA 94545

$189,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 880 sqft · Manufactured · 22 Days on market

Built 1970 $215/sqft · 5% below area Est $200k · 6% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity!! Clean, Cozy and ready for your ideas and upgrades! 2 bed/2 bath mobile home in the Eden Gardens Estates Mobile Home Park, a Senior Community. It's L-shaped living and dining rooms open to the galley kitchen. Dining room has a built in china hutch. Kitchen has a gas cooktop and the Refrigerator stays. Interior laundry with Washer & Dryer. 2 Storage Sheds, covered parking for 2 cars and plenty of space for that back yard dream garden :) Easy access to the Interstate 880, San Mateo Bridge, and various shops. One buyer must be 55 years or older, all others, no. younger than 18. Space rent is $823.73 per month

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Interior laundry
• Built in china hutch

Tags

• BUILT IN CHINA HUTCH
• GAS COOKTOP
• REFRIGERATOR STAYS
• INTERIOR LAUNDRY
• 2 STORAGE SHEDS
• COVERED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $807 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $186k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.1% in Hayward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in CA, #4,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, cost of living F.
• Hayward Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #935 of 1,400 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $189k implies a 372% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $186,165 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.31%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,000
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -5.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1150 W Winton Ave #123	0.00mi	2/2.0	880 (0%)	0mo	$185,000	$210	100
1150 W Winton Ave #204	0.06mi	2/2.0	880 (0%)	1mo	$200,000	$227	96
1200 W Winton Ave #89	0.13mi	2/1.0	880 (0%)	11mo	$135,000	$153	81
1200 W Winton Ave #59	0.09mi	2/1.0	900 (+2%)	11mo	$162,000	$180	79
1200 W Winton Ave #124	0.12mi	2/1.0	832 (-6%)	15mo	$180,000	$216	69
1200 W Winton Ave #224	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+14%)	6mo	$205,000	$205	66
1200 W Winton Ave #90	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,010 (+15%)	2mo	$265,000	$262	63
1150 W Winton Ave #530	0.06mi	2/1.0	800 (-9%)	19mo	$160,000	$200	62
1200 W Winton Ave #173	0.13mi	2/2.0	800 (-9%)	20mo	$198,000	$248	62
1200 W Winton Ave #168	0.13mi	2/15.0	800 (-9%)	2mo	$120,000	$150	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $19,790
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $79,353
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94545

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,675 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $807

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $938	-5% $873	+0% $807	+5% $742	+10% $677
Rent	-10% $596	-5% $702	+0% $807	+5% $913	+10% $1,019
Rate	-1.0pp $903	-0.5pp $855	base $807	+0.5pp $758	+1.0pp $709

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25000 Copa del Oro Dr #201 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	855	$3,000	$3.51	44d	1	0.63mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22846 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1053	$3,795	$3.60	0d	1	0.81mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22854 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$3,195	$4.27	44d	1	0.81mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22856 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	744	$3,995	$5.37	0d	1	0.81mi
25800 Industrial Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,893	$3.53	0d	11	0.93mi
21600 Westpark St Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,795	$2.56	44d	1	1.00mi
22211 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,145	$2.38	6d	2	1.03mi
1256 Stanhope Ln Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	748	$2,650	$3.54	44d	1	1.03mi
22230 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,500	$3.57	6d	1	1.04mi
24663 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	745	$2,195	$2.95	12d	2	1.18mi
20913 Royal Ave Hayward Acres, CA	2.0	1.0	675	$2,800	$4.15	44d	1	1.21mi
24650 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	822	$2,788	$3.39	0d	15	1.21mi
22078 Arbor Ave Hayward Acres, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	649	$2,140	$3.29	21d	1	1.23mi
24660 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$2,600	$4.16	0d	3	1.23mi
21944 Arbor Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,895	$3.62	44d	1	1.27mi
894 Blaine Way Unit ADU Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$2,700	$3.18	44d	1	1.30mi
25021 Cypress Ave Apt 6 Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$2,050	$3.42	44d	1	1.33mi
280 Flint Ct Hayward Acres, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,250	$3.21	4d	1	1.36mi
25341 Cypress Ave Unit 41 Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	528	$1,825	$3.46	25d	1	1.40mi
25355 Cypress Ave Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	626	$1,995	$3.19	44d	1	1.42mi
25401 Cypress Ave Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	830	$2,390	$2.88	44d	2	1.46mi
25401 Cypress Ave Unit 2 ground floor Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	620	$1,995	$3.22	21d	1	1.46mi
25401 Cypress Ave Unit 24 Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	1040	$2,390	$2.30	6d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 636-char remark

   Show marketing remark (636 chars)

   Great opportunity!! Clean, Cozy and ready for your ideas and upgrades! 2 bed/2 bath mobile home in the Eden Gardens Estates Mobile Home Park, a Senior Community. It's L-shaped living and dining rooms open to the galley kitchen. Dining room has a built in china hutch. Kitchen has a gas cooktop and the Refrigerator stays. Interior laundry with Washer & Dryer. 2 Storage Sheds, covered parking for 2 cars and plenty of space for that back yard dream garden :) Easy access to the Interstate 880, San Mateo Bridge, and various shops. One buyer must be 55 years or older, all others, no. younger than 18. Space rent is $823.73 per month

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $189,000 Active 636-char remark

   Show marketing remark (636 chars)

   Great opportunity!! Clean, Cozy and ready for your ideas and upgrades! 2 bed/2 bath mobile home in the Eden Gardens Estates Mobile Home Park, a Senior Community. It's L-shaped living and dining rooms open to the galley kitchen. Dining room has a built in china hutch. Kitchen has a gas cooktop and the Refrigerator stays. Interior laundry with Washer & Dryer. 2 Storage Sheds, covered parking for 2 cars and plenty of space for that back yard dream garden :) Easy access to the Interstate 880, San Mateo Bridge, and various shops. One buyer must be 55 years or older, all others, no. younger than 18. Space rent is $823.73 per month

3. 2000-02-25
   soldstatus $40,000 111-char remark

   Show marketing remark (111 chars)

   CHECK IT OUT! NICELY MAINTAINED 2 BD, 2 BA. NICE GARDEN AREA. CLOSE TO SOUTHLAND SHOPS, BUS AND FREEWAY ACCESS.

4. 2000-01-16
   historical 111-char remark

   Show marketing remark (111 chars)

   CHECK IT OUT! NICELY MAINTAINED 2 BD, 2 BA. NICE GARDEN AREA. CLOSE TO SOUTHLAND SHOPS, BUS AND FREEWAY ACCESS.

5. 1999-12-20
   listed $41,000 111-char remark

   Show marketing remark (111 chars)

   CHECK IT OUT! NICELY MAINTAINED 2 BD, 2 BA. NICE GARDEN AREA. CLOSE TO SOUTHLAND SHOPS, BUS AND FREEWAY ACCESS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,568
• − Management: −$2,568
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $7,102
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,705
• After-tax cash flow: $7,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hayward Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616740
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,326
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #11241
• State rank: #935 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayward

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #4294

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayward, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 191,800
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,843
• Household income: $114,356
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 42% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 8% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 43% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 26% Tagalog/Filipino 14% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -974.17%
• Current HPI: 304.698
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+361.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $189,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2000-02-25 Sold (MLS) $40,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2000-01-16 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-12-20 Listed $41,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR