13713 Stone Falcon North Dr · Utica, MI 48315

$639,490

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,172 sqft · SingleFamily · 85 Days on market

Built 2026 0.28 ac lot $202/sqft · 21% below area Est $809k · 21% under $103/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

TO BE BUILT! Build time is approx. 9-10 mths. New Homes in Utica Schools. The Princeton has an open concept Kitchen, Nook & Great Room that would be perfect to spend time with loved ones. Enjoy a cozy loft to watch your favorite show or read your favorite book. Unwind in your Master Bedroom w/ beautiful En-Suite. When you're away from home, take advantage of everything that is nearby. Close to Partridge Creek mall for eating, shopping, and much more! We include 10 Year Structural & Basement Waterproofing Warranties! Photos are of a decorated model or previously built home.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $639k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-612 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $551k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $495k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $495k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Utica — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#106 in MI, #2,586 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, employment D.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richard J Duncan Elementary (math 49% / reading 67%, grade C+, #229 of 1,397 statewide, top 17%, 701 students, 29% FRL); Eisenhower High School (math 44% / reading 66%, grade C, #107 of 713 statewide, top 15%, 1,835 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($601k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $495,000 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.10%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $809,370
• List price: $639,490
• Delta: -20.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13914 Leeward Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5	3,149 (-1%)	1mo	$886,554	$282	91
13702 Ridge Oak Ln	0.32mi	4/3.5	3,148 (-1%)	4mo	$939,015	$298	76
13702 Ridge Oak Ln #23	0.32mi	4/3.5	3,148 (-1%)	4mo	$939,015	$298	76
14103 Regatta Bay Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,839 (-10%)	1mo	$824,171	$290	67
56159 Sailmast Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5	3,546 (+12%)	2mo	$781,708	$220	67
55641 Laurel Oaks Ln #8	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,834 (-11%)	6mo	$715,656	$253	65
55641 Laurel Oaks Ln	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,834 (-11%)	6mo	$715,656	$253	65
57116 Veridian Dr. Dr	0.55mi	4/3.5	3,250 (+2%)	4mo	$855,000	$263	63
55438 Bay Oaks Ct #21	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,834 (-11%)	6mo	$886,215	$313	60
55438 Bay Oaks Ct	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,834 (-11%)	6mo	$886,215	$313	60
14278 Larkspur Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	3,007 (-5%)	1mo	$650,000	$216	56
57165 Willow Ridge Blvd	0.64mi	4/3.5	3,005 (-5%)	4mo	$590,500	$197	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-142,457
• Equity at exit: $95,350

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-173,669
• Equity at exit: $55,291

Cash invested: $179,057 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48315

• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,354
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$799 /mo · $9,592/yr
• Insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$103
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,040
• Net cashflow: $-612

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,725

Max offer price $550,951

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-170	-5% $-391	+0% $-612	+5% $-833	+10% $-1,054
Rent	-10% $-1,003	-5% $-807	+0% $-612	+5% $-416	+10% $-221
Rate	-1.0pp $-290	-0.5pp $-449	base $-612	+0.5pp $-778	+1.0pp $-946

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $159,872
• Closing costs: $19,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
55740 Beacon Shore Dr Utica, MI	5.0	4.0	3385	$4,950	$1.46	3d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $103 · $1,236/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $639,490 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $639,490 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $639,490 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $639,490 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $639,490 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $639,490 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $639,490 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $639,490 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $639,490 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $639,490 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $639,490 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $639,490 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $639,490 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $639,490 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $639,490 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $639,490 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    TO BE BUILT! Build time is approx. 9-10 mths. New Homes in Utica Schools. The Princeton has an open concept Kitchen, Nook & Great Room that would be perfect to spend time with loved ones. Enjoy a cozy loft to watch your favorite show or read your favorite book. Unwind in your Master Bedroom w/ beautiful En-Suite. When you’re away from home, take advantage of everything that is nearby. Close to Partridge Creek mall for eating, shopping, and much more! We include 10 Year Structural & Basement Waterproofing Warranties! Photos are of a decorated model or previously built home.

17. 2026-04-28
    price $639,490 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    TO BE BUILT! Build time is approx. 9-10 mths. New Homes in Utica Schools. The Princeton has an open concept Kitchen, Nook & Great Room that would be perfect to spend time with loved ones. Enjoy a cozy loft to watch your favorite show or read your favorite book. Unwind in your Master Bedroom w/ beautiful En-Suite. When you’re away from home, take advantage of everything that is nearby. Close to Partridge Creek mall for eating, shopping, and much more! We include 10 Year Structural & Basement Waterproofing Warranties! Photos are of a decorated model or previously built home.

18. 2026-03-28
    listed $631,490 Active 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    TO BE BUILT! Build time is approx. 9-10 mths. New Homes in Utica Schools. The Princeton has an open concept Kitchen, Nook & Great Room that would be perfect to spend time with loved ones. Enjoy a cozy loft to watch your favorite show or read your favorite book. Unwind in your Master Bedroom w/ beautiful En-Suite. When you're away from home, take advantage of everything that is nearby. Close to Partridge Creek mall for eating, shopping, and much more! We include 10 Year Structural & Basement Waterproofing Warranties! Photos are of a decorated model or previously built home.

19. 2026-03-28
    listed $631,490 Active 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    TO BE BUILT! Build time is approx. 9-10 mths. New Homes in Utica Schools. The Princeton has an open concept Kitchen, Nook & Great Room that would be perfect to spend time with loved ones. Enjoy a cozy loft to watch your favorite show or read your favorite book. Unwind in your Master Bedroom w/ beautiful En-Suite. When you're away from home, take advantage of everything that is nearby. Close to Partridge Creek mall for eating, shopping, and much more! We include 10 Year Structural & Basement Waterproofing Warranties! Photos are of a decorated model or previously built home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,821
• − Property taxes: −$9,592
• − Insurance: −$3,197
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,752
• − Management: −$4,752
• − HOA: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$18,603
• Taxable loss: −$18,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,453
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634470
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $65,953
• Composite: 40.52/100
• National rank: #3709
• State rank: #126 of 540 in MI

Livability — Utica

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #2586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 28,428

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 4% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 9% Arabic 4% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.36%
• Current HPI: 194.9368
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+1.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $639,490 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $639,490 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-28 Listed $631,490 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-28 Listed $631,490 MiRealSource-MiMLS