405 E Waring St · Dayton, TX 77535

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2010 0.49 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This sale is for 3 lots which include a 1972 mobile home and an unfinished home. The 3 lots total 0.4929 acres. The only entrance to the property is on E. Waring St. The mobile home is 672 sq ft and has a wood canopy over the top which includes carport. The incomplete home on the property is 1295 sqft with a large covered deck. City water & sewer available. Incomplete home status is unknown. The incomplete home was not permitted and will require special provisions to receive a permit to be completed.

Key facts

• 3 lots
• Carport
• City water

Tags

• 3 LOTS
• WOOD CANOPY
• CARPORT
• LARGE COVERED DECK
• CITY WATER
• CITY SEWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has additional parcels

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Detached carport; Driveway; One-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Asphalt road access
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Built in 2010; Single-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Cement siding; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Subdivision with side yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor (each approximately 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor (approximately 6 x 6)
• Interior features: No fireplaces; 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1209 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.07%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $3,069
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $26,474
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1209
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,268/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
704 E Waring St Dayton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	798	$1,200	$1.50	1d	14	0.26mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    listed $95,000 Active
15. 2005-05-20
    soldstatus
16. 2005-05-13
    soldstatus
17. 2005-05-07
    historical
18. 2005-01-29
    listed $45,000
19. 1997-02-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,268 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$471/yr (+$39/mo · 37.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,268
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,134
• − Management: −$1,134
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,079
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$499
• After-tax cash flow: $2,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, TX
• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+111.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2005-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-05-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-01-29 Listed $45,000 HARMLS
• 1997-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,268 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.