139 County Road 2221 · Troy, AL 36079

$200,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured · 20 Days on market

Built 2017 6.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6 acre lot
• Built 2017
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential manufactured home; Make: CAVALIER

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single level
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Porch; Level wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Hot water heating; Electric heating; Central air; Electric cooling; Heat pump
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Kitchen island; Window coverings and blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.0% in Troy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#148 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Pike County (rural): math 19% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #68 of 129 in AL (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Goshen Elementary School (math 14% / reading 44%, grade F, #379 of 627 statewide, top 61%, 462 students, 72% FRL); Goshen High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 387 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 42 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,036 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.39%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $95,906
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $292,728
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36079

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $170,369

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-67	-5% $-136	+0% $-205	+5% $-274	+10% $-343
Rent	-10% $-323	-5% $-264	+0% $-205	+5% $-146	+10% $-87
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-154	base $-205	+0.5pp $-257	+1.0pp $-309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $200,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $200,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,431
• − Management: −$1,431
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,998
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,440
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 0102790
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,318
• Composite: 25.85/100
• National rank: #7348
• State rank: #68 of 129 in AL

Livability — Troy

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #13713

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety B- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,143
• Population (ZIP): 9,282

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,683 people
• By 2030: 35,552 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 37,056 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 38,617 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 43,393 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 45,455 · +31.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 37.1% · R 62.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -15.2pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+20.3 2012: R+13.7 2008: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.16%
• Current HPI: 270.67
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $200,000 WBR