Plan 1631 Modeled Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$216,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,631 sqft · SingleFamily · 692 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

• Smart thermostat
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 692 days

Tags

• SMART THERMOSTAT
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• ENERGY STAR CERTIFIED HOME

🏗️ New construction. The $216,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $265,055.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $217k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-318 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.5% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia El (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1924 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 692 days — a 12% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $190,955 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 692 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.14%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,055
• List price: $216,995
• Delta: -18.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
232 Harlingen Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+0%)	2mo	$259,990	$159	85
214 Amarillo Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,611 (-1%)	1mo	$245,000	$152	80
833 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	3mo	$242,995	$149	78
810 Mustang Ridge Ter	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,609 (-1%)	2mo	$220,995	$137	77
257 Harlingen Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,459 (-10%)	0mo	$274,990	$188	70
692 Appaloosa Meadow Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	10mo	$252,799	$155	67
701 Appaloosa Meadow Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,631 (0%)	11mo	$249,995	$153	65
30102 Dunlevy St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+10%)	8mo	$349,990	$194	57
627 Coyote Canyon Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,407 (-14%)	21mo	$269,000	$191	52
213 Harlingen Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,841 (+13%)	21mo	$299,990	$163	47
7890 Alset Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (-3%)	17mo	$296,900	$188	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $119,118
• Equity at exit: $238,783

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $357,617
• Equity at exit: $514,944

Cash invested: $74,215 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.0 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $280,494 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 135 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1924
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,976/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,319

Max offer price $219,086

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-135	-5% $-226	+0% $-318	+5% $-409	+10% $-501
Rent	-10% $-469	-5% $-393	+0% $-318	+5% $-242	+10% $-166
Rate	-1.0pp $-184	-0.5pp $-250	base $-318	+0.5pp $-386	+1.0pp $-456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,264
• Closing costs: $7,952
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
41523 Stampede Strem Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	73d	1	0.12mi
627 Coyote Canyon Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,799	$1.28	7d	1	0.18mi
240 Country Crossing Cir Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1779	$1,766	$0.99	35d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $216,995 Active 692 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $216,995 Active 690 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $216,995 Active 686 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $216,995 Active 685 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $216,995 Active 684 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $216,995 Active 681 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $216,995 Active 680 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $216,995 Active 679 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $216,995 Active 678 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $216,995 Active 677 DOM
11. 2026-04-11
    price $216,995 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

12. 2026-03-28
    price $215,995 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

13. 2026-01-22
    price $214,995 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

14. 2025-12-17
    price $224,995 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

15. 2025-12-16
    price $229,995 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

16. 2025-12-16
    price $224,995 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

17. 2025-11-18
    price $229,995 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

18. 2025-09-16
    price $224,995 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

19. 2025-08-16
    price $221,995 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

20. 2025-05-02
    price $216,995 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

21. 2025-02-01
    price $218,995 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

22. 2024-11-01
    status Active 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

23. 2024-11-01
    price $216,995 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

24. 2024-08-01
    historical 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

25. 2024-07-13
    price $231,995 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

26. 2024-04-23
    listed $241,995 Active 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Open floor plan * Spacious laundry room * Gas range * Low-E windows * Tile flooring at wet areas * Kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging port * 6-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Picnic area * Community park * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to family friendly parks

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,998
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,847
• − Property taxes: −$3,976
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − Depreciation: −$7,711
• Taxable loss: −$8,540
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,050
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Magnolia, TX is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both smart home integration — increases convenience and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia El F TX #3,013/4,322 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle Magnolia J H F TX #805/1,662 Nat'l #7,206/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $216,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $215,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $214,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $224,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $229,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $224,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $229,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $224,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $221,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $216,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $218,995 Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Price Changed $216,995 Zillow
• 2024-08-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-07-13 Price Changed $231,995 Zillow
• 2024-04-23 Listed $241,995 Zillow