1807 N Wheeler St · Victoria, TX 77901

$39,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,730 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1954 5,662 sqft lot ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment Opportunity – 1807 N Wheeler St Great opportunity to own property at 1807 N Wheeler St. This property has a generous lot with plenty of potential for renovation, redevelopment, or building something new. investors, builders, or buyers looking to create their vision in a convenient location. Highlights: • Spacious lot • Excellent potential for improvement or new construction • Utilities available on site • Strong opportunity for investment or future development

Key facts

• Generous lot
• 5,662 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• POTENTIAL FOR RENOVATION
• POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT
• UTILITIES AVAILABLE ON SITE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; 1 covered carport space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Block foundation; Composition shingle roof; Year built reported by owner
• Exterior features: City lot; Less than quarter acre; Paved road access; No water features listed

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $746 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.2% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Patti Welder Middle (math 8% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,556 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 638 students, 79% FRL); Victoria West H S (math 18% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,766 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.98%
• DSCR: 4.65
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,660
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2011 N Jecker	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,525 (-12%)	1mo	$43,000	$28	56
1705 N Vine St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,534 (-11%)	6mo	$260,000	$169	46
702 E Airline Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,485 (-14%)	2mo	$211,000	$142	45
1311 E Park Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-12%)	2mo	$170,000	$112	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $37,445
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.26×
• Total profit: $79,307
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77901

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $746

Break-even live

Break-even rent $341

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $773	-5% $759	+0% $746	+5% $733	+10% $719
Rent	-10% $644	-5% $695	+0% $746	+5% $797	+10% $848
Rate	-1.0pp $766	-0.5pp $756	base $746	+0.5pp $736	+1.0pp $726

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 E Sabine St Unit A Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	1224	$1,150	$0.94	46d	1	0.02mi
408 E North St Unit Dwnstrs Victoria, TX	2.0	1.0	2092	$1,200	$0.57	46d	1	0.60mi
3001 Arroyo Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	857	$1,330	$1.55	46d	4	0.79mi
1709 Navidad St Victoria, TX	4.0	1.0	1457	$1,595	$1.09	46d	1	0.92mi
1810 E Colorado St Victoria, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,425	$1.57	46d	8	0.94mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $39,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,000 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-24
    status Active
19. 2026-04-07
    status Pending
20. 2026-03-18
    listed $39,000 Active
21. 2026-02-28
    historical
22. 2026-02-05
    price $59,950
23. 2025-12-24
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,234
• − Management: −$1,234
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $8,858
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,126
• After-tax cash flow: $6,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, TX
• County: Victoria County · 69,915 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,854
• Household income: $57,923
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1802.0

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.62%
• Current HPI: 138.3569
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $39,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $59,950 CTXMLS
• 2025-12-24 Listed $65,000 CTXMLS

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,386 · -19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.