3738 Pineland Point Rd · Gladwin, MI 48624

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · SingleFamily · 141 Days on market

0.90 ac lot $180/sqft · 14% below area Est $321k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Pinelands Point where you will enjoy this amazing Point, 180 feet on the water and million dollar views of Secord Lake! Just imagine sitting in your yard and being able to watch the spectacular sunrises and sunsets on Secord Lake with views in almost every direction. This 3 BD/ 2bath home sits on 2 lots with a stunning waterfront peninsular point of Secord Lake. This lake home has a very large living room and kitchen with that open concept feel. Step down into the living room where you can enjoy the beauty of a natural wood burning fireplace. Enjoy your beautiful lake views from the living room and screened in porch off the living room. There is room for you to put your own finishing touches on this home and possibly update the kitchen to make it your own. Featuring an attached garage and plenty of beautiful yard space, also home is sitting back off the road for a little more privacy. Don't miss out on this opportunity as it wont last long!

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Beautiful yard space
• 0.9 acre lot

Tags

• 180 FEET ON THE WATER
• WATERFRONT PENINSULAR POINT
• NATURAL WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• BEAUTIFUL YARD SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 7.6% in Gladwin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Gladwin Community Schools (town): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #232 of 540 in MI (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Gladwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gladwin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $214,012 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.96%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,900
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -14.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3818 Pinelands Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-4%)	24mo	$240,000	$165	62
3831 Lakeshore Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,356 (-11%)	10mo	$319,500	$236	51
3436 Lakeshore Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-15%)	12mo	$250,900	$194	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-56,652
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-64,843
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48624

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,140 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$324 /mo · $3,889/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,381

Max offer price $241,411

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-34	-5% $-112	+0% $-190	+5% $-268	+10% $-346
Rent	-10% $-359	-5% $-275	+0% $-190	+5% $-106	+10% $-21
Rate	-1.0pp $-52	-0.5pp $-120	base $-190	+0.5pp $-261	+1.0pp $-334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $275,000 Pending 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $275,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $275,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $275,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-01-16
    listed $275,000 Active 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Welcome to Pinelands Point where you will enjoy this amazing Point, 180 feet on the water and million dollar views of Secord Lake! Just imagine sitting in your yard and being able to watch the spectacular sunrises and sunsets on Secord Lake with views in almost every direction. This 3 BD/ 2bath home sits on 2 lots with a stunning waterfront peninsular point of Secord Lake. This lake home has a very large living room and kitchen with that open concept feel. Step down into the living room where you can enjoy the beauty of a natural wood burning fireplace. Enjoy your beautiful lake views from the living room and screened in porch off the living room. There is room for you to put your own finishing touches on this home and possibly update the kitchen to make it your own. Featuring an attached garage and plenty of beautiful yard space, also home is sitting back off the road for a little more privacy. Don't miss out on this opportunity as it wont last long!

11. 2016-10-11
    historical
12. 2016-10-11
    historical
13. 2016-10-09
    historical
14. 2016-04-11
    listed $185,000
15. 2016-04-11
    listed $185,000
16. 2016-04-09
    listed $185,000
17. 2015-11-15
    historical
18. 2015-11-15
    historical
19. 2015-11-15
    historical
20. 2015-06-15
    listed $199,500
21. 2015-06-15
    listed $189,500
22. 2015-06-15
    listed $199,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,889 · $324/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,062 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: +$173/yr (+$14/mo · 4.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$3,889
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,055
• − Management: −$2,055
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$7,096
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,703
• After-tax cash flow: $-579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gladwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2615990
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,917
• Composite: 32.93/100
• National rank: #5595
• State rank: #232 of 540 in MI

Livability — Gladwin

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #6296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,269

Population outlook (Gladwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,440 people
• By 2030: 22,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 19,867 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 17,667 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 12,909 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 8,629 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gladwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.67%
• Current HPI: 238.0744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+37.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Listed $275,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-10-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-10-11 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-10-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-04-11 Listed $185,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-04-11 Listed $185,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-04-09 Listed $185,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-11-15 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-11-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-11-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-06-15 Listed $199,500 REALCOMP
• 2015-06-15 Listed $189,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-06-15 Listed $199,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,889 · -37.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.