173 Gregory Dean Ln · Paxton, FL 32433

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,836 sqft · Manufactured public records · 723 Days on market

Built 2023 1.25 ac lot Est $226k · 14% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Turkey Creek Woodlands! Seller is offering up to $5,000 towards buyer closing costs! Home warranty is included! The lots are over 1 ACRE! A large custom covered porch adorns this NEW 2023 Champion Prime home! This 4/2 top-of-the-line home comes with a modern, open-concept floor plan with 1,813 square feet of living space. This estate size family home features spacious living room, family size dining area and beautiful well equipped kitchen, large family room, privately located master bedroom with glamorous ensuite bath, three king size guest bedrooms with lots of walk-in closet space and roomy second bathroom. Save thousands on utility bills with a well and septic tank! Convenien

Key facts

• Covered porch
• 1.25 acre lot
• Built 2023

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• ESTATE SIZE FAMILY HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; fees cover structure maintenance and repairs/maintenance; Subdivision: Turkey Creek Woodlands

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service; Private well; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Built in 2023
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composite shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Open deck; Covenants and restrictions; Survey available; Access via county and private roads; graded/maintained

Interior

• Kitchen: Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; master bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; High-efficiency central AC; Electric heat controls
• Interior features: Recessed lighting; Washer/dryer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#861 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mossy Head School (math 72% / reading 57%, grade B, #525 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 439 students, 86% FRL); Walton High School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 856 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 723 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 723 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,828
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
174 Gregory Dean Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,813 (-1%)	2mo	$195,000	$108	88
240 Lee Ann Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,813 (-1%)	2mo	$195,000	$108	84
260 Lee Ann Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,813 (-1%)	4mo	$195,000	$108	84
289 Gregory Dean Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,813 (-1%)	8mo	$195,000	$108	83
81 Lee Ann Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,580 (-14%)	3mo	$195,000	$123	57
99 Lady Fish Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,580 (-14%)	18mo	$195,000	$123	47
19 S Sally Jean Rd	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,580 (-14%)	15mo	$195,000	$123	44
61 Granger Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-15%)	22mo	$206,300	$132	37
46 Bully Boy Blvd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-14%)	19mo	$190,000	$120	36
26 Bully Boy Blvd	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,580 (-14%)	23mo	$220,000	$139	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $114,978
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $331,558
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32433

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,395/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,555

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 723 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 722 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 721 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 720 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 718 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 717 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 715 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 714 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 713 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 712 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 709 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 708 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 707 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 706 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 705 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 704 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    status Active
18. 2025-11-18
    status Active
19. 2024-09-24
    price $195,000
20. 2024-06-19
    listed $220,000 Active
21. 2024-04-17
    historical $1,750
22. 2024-03-27
    listed $1,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,395 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,618 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$224/yr (+$19/mo · 16.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,395
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$1,624
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$390
• After-tax cash flow: $2,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Paxton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #22199

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 19,746
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,746
• Household income: $52,199
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 356.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.77%
• Current HPI: 367.046
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+11042.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Relisted — ECAR
• 2025-11-18 Relisted — ECAR
• 2024-09-24 Price Changed $195,000 ECAR
• 2024-06-19 Listed $220,000 ECAR
• 2024-04-17 Rental Removed $1,750 ECAR
• 2024-03-27 Listed for Rent $1,750 ECAR

Property tax history

+103.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,395 · +3298.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.