3130 W Young · Show Low, AZ 85901

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 285 Days on market

Built 1999 6,969 sqft lot $198/sqft · 6% below area Est $319k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the peaceful Park Valley subdivision of Show Low, Arizona, 3130 W Young offers a comfortable and convenient living experience. This 1,512 sq ft manufactured home, built in 1999, features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, making it ideal for families or those seeking extra space. The open floor plan includes a vaulted ceiling, split-bedroom layout. Functional Design: The kitchen and dining areas are combined, providing a central hub for daily activities. The home also boasts a utility room for laundry convenience. The home has new flooring, WH, paint inside and out. A new metal roof was installed March 2026

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Split-bedroom layout
• Utility room

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILING
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• COMBINED KITCHEN AND DINING
• UTILITY ROOM
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $716 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 285 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $299k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 285 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.26%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,076
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -6.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3198 W Young --	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	8mo	$325,000	$201	80
2899 W Whipple St	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	0mo	$155,000	$108	78
3030 W Young --	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-11%)	4mo	$325,000	$242	75
2455 W Whipple	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+3%)	7mo	$374,900	$240	66
590 S 26th Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-4%)	15mo	$292,000	$201	66
3051 W Young	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-11%)	9mo	$295,900	$220	66
640 S 27th Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-11%)	4mo	$273,000	$203	65
2380 W Zuni Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-2%)	13mo	$369,750	$249	63
2820 W Reidhead	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-11%)	10mo	$320,000	$237	61
1061 S Hacienda Pines Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-1%)	9mo	$395,000	$263	58
2340 W Hacienda Way	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,703 (+13%)	10mo	$339,000	$199	48
1241 S Deer Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+10%)	9mo	$430,000	$258	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-3,005
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $55,492
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $676/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $716

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,214

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $885	-5% $800	+0% $716	+5% $631	+10% $547
Rent	-10% $469	-5% $593	+0% $716	+5% $839	+10% $962
Rate	-1.0pp $866	-0.5pp $792	base $716	+0.5pp $638	+1.0pp $560

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
311 S 16th Ave Unit 1545774P Show Low, AZ	3.0	2.0	1797	$4,355	$2.42	14d	1	1.01mi
2890 W Villa Loop Unit 1 Show Low, AZ	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,700	$1.63	44d	1	1.09mi
2850 W Villa Loop Unit 1 Show Low, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,700	$1.66	14d	1	1.11mi
4680 W Mogollon Dr Show Low, AZ	2.0	2.0	1152	$2,500	$2.17	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,000 Active 285 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 284 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 283 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 282 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 281 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 279 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,000 Active 278 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 275 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 274 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 273 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 272 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 269 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 268 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 267 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 266 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 265 DOM
17. 2026-04-04
    price $299,000 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Park Valley subdivision of Show Low, Arizona, 3130 W Young offers a comfortable and convenient living experience. This 1,512 sq ft manufactured home, built in 1999, features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, making it ideal for families or those seeking extra space. The open floor plan includes a vaulted ceiling, split-bedroom layout. Functional Design: The kitchen and dining areas are combined, providing a central hub for daily activities. The home also boasts a utility room for laundry convenience. The home has new flooring, WH, paint inside and out. A new metal roof was installed March 2026

18. 2026-04-03
    status Active 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Park Valley subdivision of Show Low, Arizona, 3130 W Young offers a comfortable and convenient living experience. This 1,512 sq ft manufactured home, built in 1999, features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, making it ideal for families or those seeking extra space. The open floor plan includes a vaulted ceiling, split-bedroom layout. Functional Design: The kitchen and dining areas are combined, providing a central hub for daily activities. The home also boasts a utility room for laundry convenience. The home has new flooring, WH, paint inside and out. A new metal roof was installed March 2026

19. 2026-03-16
    historical 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Park Valley subdivision of Show Low, Arizona, 3130 W Young offers a comfortable and convenient living experience. This 1,512 sq ft manufactured home, built in 1999, features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, making it ideal for families or those seeking extra space. The open floor plan includes a vaulted ceiling, split-bedroom layout. Functional Design: The kitchen and dining areas are combined, providing a central hub for daily activities. The home also boasts a utility room for laundry convenience. The home has new flooring, WH, paint inside and out. A new metal roof was installed March 2026

20. 2026-03-13
    status Pending Take Backup 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Park Valley subdivision of Show Low, Arizona, 3130 W Young offers a comfortable and convenient living experience. This 1,512 sq ft manufactured home, built in 1999, features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, making it ideal for families or those seeking extra space. The open floor plan includes a vaulted ceiling, split-bedroom layout. Functional Design: The kitchen and dining areas are combined, providing a central hub for daily activities. The home also boasts a utility room for laundry convenience. The home has new flooring, WH, paint inside and out. A new metal roof was installed March 2026

21. 2026-03-13
    status Active 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Park Valley subdivision of Show Low, Arizona, 3130 W Young offers a comfortable and convenient living experience. This 1,512 sq ft manufactured home, built in 1999, features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, making it ideal for families or those seeking extra space. The open floor plan includes a vaulted ceiling, split-bedroom layout. Functional Design: The kitchen and dining areas are combined, providing a central hub for daily activities. The home also boasts a utility room for laundry convenience. The home has new flooring, WH, paint inside and out. A new metal roof was installed March 2026

22. 2026-02-10
    status Pending 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Park Valley subdivision of Show Low, Arizona, 3130 W Young offers a comfortable and convenient living experience. This 1,512 sq ft manufactured home, built in 1999, features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, making it ideal for families or those seeking extra space. The open floor plan includes a vaulted ceiling, split-bedroom layout. Functional Design: The kitchen and dining areas are combined, providing a central hub for daily activities. The home also boasts a utility room for laundry convenience. The home has new flooring, WH, paint inside and out. A new metal roof was installed March 2026

23. 2026-01-28
    status Active 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Park Valley subdivision of Show Low, Arizona, 3130 W Young offers a comfortable and convenient living experience. This 1,512 sq ft manufactured home, built in 1999, features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, making it ideal for families or those seeking extra space. The open floor plan includes a vaulted ceiling, split-bedroom layout. Functional Design: The kitchen and dining areas are combined, providing a central hub for daily activities. The home also boasts a utility room for laundry convenience. The home has new flooring, WH, paint inside and out. A new metal roof was installed March 2026

24. 2025-12-01
    historical 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Park Valley subdivision of Show Low, Arizona, 3130 W Young offers a comfortable and convenient living experience. This 1,512 sq ft manufactured home, built in 1999, features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, making it ideal for families or those seeking extra space. The open floor plan includes a vaulted ceiling, split-bedroom layout. Functional Design: The kitchen and dining areas are combined, providing a central hub for daily activities. The home also boasts a utility room for laundry convenience. The home has new flooring, WH, paint inside and out. A new metal roof was installed March 2026

25. 2025-10-24
    price $279,000 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Park Valley subdivision of Show Low, Arizona, 3130 W Young offers a comfortable and convenient living experience. This 1,512 sq ft manufactured home, built in 1999, features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, making it ideal for families or those seeking extra space. The open floor plan includes a vaulted ceiling, split-bedroom layout. Functional Design: The kitchen and dining areas are combined, providing a central hub for daily activities. The home also boasts a utility room for laundry convenience. The home has new flooring, WH, paint inside and out. A new metal roof was installed March 2026

26. 2025-07-22
    price $289,000 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Park Valley subdivision of Show Low, Arizona, 3130 W Young offers a comfortable and convenient living experience. This 1,512 sq ft manufactured home, built in 1999, features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, making it ideal for families or those seeking extra space. The open floor plan includes a vaulted ceiling, split-bedroom layout. Functional Design: The kitchen and dining areas are combined, providing a central hub for daily activities. The home also boasts a utility room for laundry convenience. The home has new flooring, WH, paint inside and out. A new metal roof was installed March 2026

27. 2025-05-19
    listed $299,000 Active 618-char remark

    Show marketing remark (618 chars)

    Nestled in the peaceful Park Valley subdivision of Show Low, Arizona, 3130 W Young offers a comfortable and convenient living experience. This 1,512 sq ft manufactured home, built in 1999, features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, making it ideal for families or those seeking extra space. The open floor plan includes a vaulted ceiling, split-bedroom layout. Functional Design: The kitchen and dining areas are combined, providing a central hub for daily activities. The home also boasts a utility room for laundry convenience. The home has new flooring, WH, paint inside and out. A new metal roof was installed March 2026

28. 2023-02-17
    soldstatus $130,000 Closed 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    This spacious double wide has 3 bedrooms & 2 baths. Great location, close to all amenities in town.

29. 2023-02-17
    soldstatus $130,000

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    This spacious double wide has 3 bedrooms & 2 baths. Great location, close to all amenities in town.

30. 2023-02-03
    historical 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    This spacious double wide has 3 bedrooms & 2 baths. Great location, close to all amenities in town.

31. 2022-12-08
    price $215,000 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    This spacious double wide has 3 bedrooms & 2 baths. Great location, close to all amenities in town.

32. 2022-11-08
    listed $265,000 Active 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    This spacious double wide has 3 bedrooms & 2 baths. Great location, close to all amenities in town.

33. 2006-06-28
    soldstatus $139,982
34. 2003-04-04
    soldstatus $89,500
35. 1993-09-30
    soldstatus $17,090

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,973 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,297/yr (+$108/mo · 191.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$676
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,995
• − Management: −$2,995
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $3,831
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$920
• After-tax cash flow: $7,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1649.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $299,000 WMMLS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — WMMLS
• 2026-03-16 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2026-03-13 Pending — WMMLS
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — WMMLS
• 2026-02-10 Pending — WMMLS
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — WMMLS
• 2025-12-01 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $279,000 WMMLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $289,000 WMMLS
• 2025-05-19 Listed $299,000 WMMLS
• 2023-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-17 Sold (MLS) $130,000 WMMLS
• 2023-02-03 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2022-12-08 Price Changed $215,000 WMMLS
• 2022-11-08 Listed $265,000 WMMLS
• 2006-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $139,982 Public Records
• 2003-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records
• 1993-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $17,090 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $676 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.