9221 Rainbow Ln · Jasmine Estates, FL 34668

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,487 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1978 5,100 sqft lot Est $291k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming single-level bungalow offers a wonderful blend of character and modern convenience. The exterior features a welcoming front facade with a tile walkway and a private backyard with a privacy fence and an outdoor shed for additional storage. Inside, the home boasts a formal living room and dining room, complemented by tile and hardwood flooring throughout. The kitchen is designed for functionality with bar top seating, while the sun-filled Florida room and exterior patio provide excellent spaces for relaxing or entertaining guests. HWH-2019; HVAC-2012; ROOF- 2011

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Privacy fence
• Outdoor shed

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• PRIVACY FENCE
• OUTDOOR SHED
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• BAR TOP SEATING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R3; Lot size approximately 0.12 acres; Living area about 1,487 sq ft (per public records); Building area about 2,037 sq ft (per public records); Unit is unfurnished
• HOA & community: No HOA/association; Pets allowed (cats and dogs OK)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway, ground-level parking; Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; East-facing entry; Completed condition; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of existing development
• Exterior features: Patio; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Shed(s); Accessible approach with ramp; Level lot; Sidewalk; Asphalt road, public maintained

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Breakfast room (separate); Family room; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($684/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Jasmine Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#555 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fox Hollow Elementary School (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 97%, 653 students, 88% FRL); Chasco Middle School (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 688 students, 84% FRL); River Ridge High School (math 50% / reading 54%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,802 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 48% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 582 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,870/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 2699% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $240k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,989 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.02%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,452
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9310 Mark Twain Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,487 (0%)	2mo	$235,000	$158	95
9401 Glen Moor Ln	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,472 (-1%)	2mo	$180,000	$122	71
7410 Mayfield Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,545 (+4%)	1mo	$303,000	$196	64
7311 San Moritz Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,467 (-1%)	1mo	$290,000	$198	63
9641 Morehead Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-5%)	2mo	$307,000	$217	63
7823 Radcliffe Cir	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,446 (-3%)	0mo	$150,000	$104	59
9313 Wolcott Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,268 (-15%)	2mo	$320,000	$252	58
8201 Sudbury Dr	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,365 (-8%)	2mo	$279,000	$204	55
8326 Luray Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-8%)	2mo	$295,000	$216	55
7206 San Moritz Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,578 (+6%)	2mo	$250,000	$158	52
9135 Farmington Ln	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,659 (+12%)	1mo	$280,000	$169	49
8641 Shadblow Ct #2	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,270 (-15%)	0mo	$134,900	$106	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-38,543
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-41,979
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 582
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $746/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,798

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $125	+0% $57	+5% $-11	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-91	-5% $-17	+0% $57	+5% $131	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $178	-0.5pp $118	base $57	+0.5pp $-5	+1.0pp $-68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8026 Colrain Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,545	$1.43	26d	1	0.16mi
9100 Hunt Club Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1365	$1,850	$1.36	23d	1	0.18mi
9105 Hermitage Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,900	$1.32	26d	1	0.23mi
9300 Whitman Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	920	$1,695	$1.84	26d	1	0.25mi
9310 Whitman Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	980	$1,350	$1.38	13d	1	0.26mi
7605 Embassy Blvd Unit 1 Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,350	$1.60	26d	1	0.31mi
7605 Embassy Blvd Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,350	$1.84	14d	1	0.31mi
9202 Suffolk Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,450	$1.40	26d	1	0.35mi
9202 Suffolk Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,450	$1.40	16d	1	0.35mi
8910 Elm Leaf Ct Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,650	$1.32	6d	1	0.35mi
9141 Suffolk Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,775	$1.17	0d	1	0.37mi
9130 Chatam Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1212	$1,623	$1.34	23d	1	0.39mi
9211 Chatam Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,215	$1.88	22d	1	0.41mi
7501 San Moritz Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,600	$1.13	26d	1	0.44mi
8151 Hixton Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,699	$1.57	18d	1	0.45mi
8247 Saybrook Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	980	$1,550	$1.58	25d	1	0.46mi
7435 San Miguel Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1136	$1,500	$1.32	22d	1	0.49mi
7815 Treasure Pointe Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1682	$2,024	$1.20	22d	1	0.53mi
7318 Vienna Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1530	$1,841	$1.20	21d	1	0.57mi
9820 Rainbow Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,325	$1.02	16d	1	0.63mi
7741 Forest Trl #3 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1010	$1,500	$1.49	26d	1	0.63mi
7301 Moravian Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,806	$1.36	6d	1	0.69mi
7325 Ivanhoe Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,800	$1.83	12d	1	0.72mi
9808 Glen Moor Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,975	$1.27	1d	1	0.74mi
7205 Moravian Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,845	$1.22	21d	1	0.76mi
9845 Lake Chrise Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,961	$1.21	26d	1	0.76mi
8437 Luray Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1038	$1,595	$1.54	6d	1	0.76mi
9136 Lometa Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1574	$1,795	$1.14	19d	1	0.80mi
8019 Portage Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1078	$2,000	$1.86	18d	1	0.83mi
7224 Potomac Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,595	$1.32	26d	1	0.84mi
7034 Coral Reef Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,795	$1.35	26d	1	0.84mi
7210 Parrot Dr Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1772	$2,700	$1.52	1d	1	0.89mi
7125 Sandalwood Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1324	$1,681	$1.27	6d	1	0.92mi
7015 Ingleside Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1243	$2,045	$1.65	0d	1	0.95mi
6935 Twilite Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,450	$1.41	18d	1	0.97mi
8228 Chasco Woods Blvd Port Richey, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	966	$1,760	$1.82	0d	22	1.00mi
9304 Saint Regis Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1356	$1,550	$1.14	23d	1	1.01mi
10225 Gardenia Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1042	$1,495	$1.43	16d	1	1.04mi
9425 Saint Regis Ln Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1380	$1,700	$1.23	26d	1	1.06mi
7040 Brentwood Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	880	$1,600	$1.82	22d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-22
   pricedays on market $239,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 580-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    listed $244,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,991 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,245/yr (+$104/mo · 166.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$746
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$3,514
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$843
• After-tax cash flow: $1,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jasmine Estates

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #10561

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasmine Estates, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+222.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-10 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-07 Price Changed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-19 Price Changed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-02 Listed $142,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $75,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $746 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.