73 John A Gaskins Rd · Ray City, GA 31635

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2004 1.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your perfect blend of comfort and space! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath, home sits on a generous 1.2-acre lot, offering plenty of room to relax, entertain, and enjoy outdoors. The fenced backyard provides security and ideal for pets, gardening, children, family gathering and includes a convenient storage shed for all your tools, toys, and equipment, Inside, you'll find a well-maintained home complete with essential appliances such as stove, refrigerator, washer and dryer making it move-in ready. Recent updates include a new metal roof(September 2024), new AC unit (May 2025), new well pump(February 2026), 62-gallon hot water heater tank, giving you peace of mind and energy effici

Key facts

• New metal roof
• New ac unit
• Garden

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW AC UNIT
• NEW WELL PUMP
• GARDEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R3; Lot approximately 1.2 acres

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Microwave; Refrigerator; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $569 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.0% in Ray City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#260 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Lanier County (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 174 in GA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 35 units permitted in Lanier County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.74%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $66,848
• Equity at exit: $82,448

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.99×
• Total profit: $173,196
• Equity at exit: $138,027

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31635

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $444/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $569

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,157

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23 Osprey Cv Lakeland, GA	4.0	2.0	1372	$2,000	$1.46	44d	1	1.13mi
97 Mill Pond Pl Lakeland, GA	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,750	$1.24	21d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-22
   status Active
3. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
4. 2026-05-11
   listed $155,000 Active
5. 2022-04-27
   soldstatus $120,000
6. 2022-03-16
   listed $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $444 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,426 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$982/yr (+$82/mo · 221.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$444
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $4,520
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,085
• After-tax cash flow: $5,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lanier County
• NCES district ID: 1303240
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,019
• Composite: 29.6/100
• National rank: #6476
• State rank: #67 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ray City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #14250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,978

Population outlook (Lanier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,743 people
• By 2030: 10,892 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 10,975 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 10,764 · +0.2%
• By 2075: 9,418 · -12.3%
• By 2100: 7,419 · -30.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lanier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.3) · D 26.6% · R 73.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -46.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.3 2020: R+41.7 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+23.8 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Current HPI: 201.1664
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+34.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-05-22 Relisted — SGMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $155,000 SGMLS
• 2022-04-27 Sold (MLS) $120,000 SGMLS
• 2022-03-16 Listed $115,000 SGMLS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $444 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.