22438 Pleasant Morning Dr · Connerton, FL 34637

$410,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,896 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $142/sqft · 9% below area Est $450k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This single-family home boasts five bedrooms across two stories. A versatile flex room sits off the foyer and a modern open-concept design brightens the kitchen, dining room and family room. The sprawling owner's suite enjoys privacy on the ground floor with a full-sized bathroom and walk-in closet, while the remaining four bedrooms and spacious loft are upstairs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 49 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $411k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $390k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $341k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Connerton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 503 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($399k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $341,187 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.51%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $450,169
• List price: $410,990
• Delta: -8.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22438 Pleasant Morning	0.00mi	5/2.5	2,896 (0%)	1mo	$410,990	$142	100
22406 Pleasant Morning Dr	0.03mi	5/2.5	2,896 (0%)	1mo	$427,837	$148	98
22169 Calisto Way	0.28mi	5/2.5	2,896 (0%)	5mo	$464,900	$161	83
22083 Blazing Star Run	0.32mi	5/2.5	2,896 (0%)	3mo	$445,000	$154	82
22522 Blazing Star Run	0.10mi	6/4.0 (+1)	2,580 (-11%)	0mo	$420,400	$163	66
22361 Blazing Star Run	0.06mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,326 (+15%)	5mo	$464,900	$140	62
7610 Painted Sky Pl	0.27mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (-11%)	2mo	$415,400	$161	60
9157 Shadyside Ln	0.65mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,947 (+2%)	3mo	$520,000	$176	59
7690 Painted Sky Pl	0.32mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (-11%)	4mo	$404,900	$157	57
21813 Briske Morning Ave	0.67mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,738 (-6%)	2mo	$589,900	$215	51
21827 Southern Charm Dr	0.59mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,110 (+7%)	2mo	$665,000	$214	49
21931 Woodshadow Way	0.48mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,198 (+10%)	5mo	$865,000	$270	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-50,008
• Equity at exit: $88,691

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-31,684
• Equity at exit: $84,441

Cash invested: $115,077 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 93 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.9 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $489,900 ($167/sqft)
• Median days on market: 45 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 503
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,412 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,155
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$514 /mo · $6,165/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $-145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,595

Max offer price $390,025

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $-3	+0% $-145	+5% $-287	+10% $-429
Rent	-10% $-414	-5% $-280	+0% $-145	+5% $-10	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $-40	base $-145	+0.5pp $-251	+1.0pp $-360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,748
• Closing costs: $12,330
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22430 Blazing Star Run Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,550	$1.32	85d	1	0.06mi
22164 Calisto Way Land O Lakes, FL	6.0	3.0	3092	$3,100	$1.00	45d	1	0.28mi
21816 Crest Meadow Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2061	$3,200	$1.55	109d	1	0.69mi
21648 Southern Charm Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.0	2560	$3,000	$1.17	10d	1	0.74mi
8355 Swiss Chard Cir Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	4.0	3522	$4,650	$1.32	10d	1	0.87mi
21286 Wistful Yearn Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.5	2492	$3,400	$1.36	28d	1	1.09mi
21286 Wistful Yearn Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.5	2492	$3,400	$1.36	29d	1	1.09mi
8692 Little Bluestem Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2640	$3,400	$1.29	139d	1	1.29mi
7843 Foxgrove Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1985	$2,050	$1.03	55d	1	1.31mi
7843 Foxgrove Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1985	$2,050	$1.03	46d	1	1.31mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $422,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Raleigh plan)Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2896Address: 22438 Pleasant Morning Dr, Land O' Lakes, FL 34637

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Raleigh plan)

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-07-26
   days on market $410,990 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-07-24
   days on market $410,990 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-07-23
   days on market $410,990 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-07-22
   days on market $410,990 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-07-21
   days on market $410,990 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-07-20
   days on market $410,990 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-07-18
   days on market $410,990 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-07-16
   days on market $410,990 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-07-15
   days on market $410,990 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-07-13
    days on market $410,990 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-07-13
    days on market $410,990 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $410,990 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-07-10
    days on market $410,490 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-07-10
    price $410,490 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $413,990 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-07-07
    days on market $433,990 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-07-06
    days on market $433,990 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-07-06
    pricedays on market $433,990 Active 28 DOM
19. 2026-07-05
    days on market $433,490 Active 27 DOM
20. 2026-07-03
    days on market $433,490 Active 26 DOM
21. 2026-07-03
    days on market $433,490 Active 25 DOM
22. 2026-07-01
    days on market $433,490 Active 24 DOM
23. 2026-06-30
    price $433,490 Active 23 DOM
24. 2026-06-30
    days on market $429,990 Active 23 DOM
25. 2026-06-29
    price $429,990 Active 22 DOM
26. 2026-06-29
    days on market $427,990 Active 22 DOM
27. 2026-06-28
    price $427,990 Active 21 DOM
28. 2026-06-28
    days on market $426,990 Active 21 DOM
29. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $426,990 Active 20 DOM
30. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $425,490 Active 19 DOM
31. 2026-06-24
    days on market $424,990 Active 17 DOM
32. 2026-06-18
    days on market $424,990 Active 11 DOM
33. 2026-06-18
    price $424,990 Active 10 DOM
34. 2026-06-17
    days on market $424,490 Active 10 DOM
35. 2026-06-16
    days on market $424,490 Active 9 DOM
36. 2026-06-15
    price $424,490 Active 8 DOM
37. 2026-06-15
    days on market $423,990 Active 8 DOM
38. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $423,990 Active 6 DOM
39. 2026-06-09
    days on market $423,490 Active 2 DOM
40. 2026-06-08
    price $423,490 Active 1 DOM
41. 2026-06-08
    remarks 366-char remark
42. 2026-06-08
    listed $422,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,022
• − Property taxes: −$6,165
• − Insurance: −$2,055
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,275
• − Management: −$3,275
• − Depreciation: −$11,956
• Taxable loss: −$8,806
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,113
• After-tax cash flow: $375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,480–$43,440 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior siding and cleaning of the gutters to further enhance its curb appeal and property value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage to the exterior of the home. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Connerton Elementary School C- FL #976/2,144 Nat'l #11,114/41,679 Middle Pine View Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Land O' Lakes High School C+ FL #106/667 Nat'l #3,545/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $422,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Raleigh plan)Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2896Address: 22438 Pleasant Morning Dr, Land O' Lakes, FL 34637

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Raleigh plan)