22438 Pleasant Morning Dr · Connerton, FL 34637

$424,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,896 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $533k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This single-family home boasts five bedrooms across two stories. A versatile flex room sits off the foyer and a modern open-concept design brightens the kitchen, dining room and family room. The sprawling owner's suite enjoys privacy on the ground floor with a full-sized bathroom and walk-in closet, while the remaining four bedrooms and spacious loft are upstairs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $422,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Raleigh plan); Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2896; Address: 22438 Pleasant Morning Dr, Land O' Lakes, FL 34637

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Raleigh plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $400k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $350k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $350,238 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $532,864
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22169 Calisto Way	0.28mi	5/2.5	2,896 (0%)	0mo	$464,900	$161	87
22413 Nebula Way	0.09mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,092 (+7%)	7mo	$488,690	$158	72
7961 Painted Sky Pl	0.50mi	5/2.5	2,896 (0%)	9mo	$469,900	$162	69
22361 Blazing Star Run	0.06mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,326 (+15%)	0mo	$464,900	$140	65
8027 Ehren Cutoff	0.50mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,770 (-4%)	3mo	$755,000	$273	60
22540 Nebula Way	0.13mi	6/4.0 (+1)	3,326 (+15%)	3mo	$463,590	$139	55
21931 Woodshadow Way	0.48mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,198 (+10%)	0mo	$865,000	$270	49
22011 Emory Oak Pl	0.49mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,163 (+9%)	6mo	$860,000	$272	46
8578 Gibbons Grove Loop	0.44mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,198 (+10%)	9mo	$850,000	$266	43
7776 Painted Sky Pl	0.39mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,326 (+15%)	10mo	$488,390	$147	42
8747 Flourish Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,529 (-13%)	10mo	$465,000	$184	39
21804 Briske Morning Ave	0.70mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,300 (+14%)	1mo	$815,000	$247	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-53,005
• Equity at exit: $91,712

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-35,558
• Equity at exit: $87,317

Cash invested: $118,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,502 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$531 /mo · $6,375/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,718

Max offer price $400,372

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $-23	+0% $-170	+5% $-317	+10% $-464
Rent	-10% $-447	-5% $-308	+0% $-170	+5% $-32	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-62	base $-170	+0.5pp $-280	+1.0pp $-392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,248
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8692 Little Bluestem Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2640	$3,400	$1.29	0d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $424,990 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $424,990 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $424,490 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $424,490 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $424,490 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $423,990 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $423,990 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $423,490 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   price $423,490 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    remarks 366-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    listed $422,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,029
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,806
• − Property taxes: −$6,375
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,362
• − Management: −$3,362
• − Depreciation: −$12,363
• Taxable loss: −$9,365
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,248
• After-tax cash flow: $206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 96.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B