11443 Cay Spruce Way · San Antonio, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 109°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 26 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +7.8/15.0
- Cash flow +6.2/30.0
- Schools +4.3/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Appreciation +3.8/10.0
- Livability +3.5/5.0
- 1% rule +3.1/10.0
- Rent growth +2.6/5.0
- DSCR +0.6/10.0
$289,999
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Virtually Staged. * MOTIVATED SELLER * Welcome to your Staycation! This spacious 3 bedroom 2.5 bathroom Townhome is conveniently located in the Lagoon Community of Mirada, nestled within the up and coming city of San Antonio, FL. This home features an open floor plan with luxury finishes including a decorative glass entry door, Quartz countertops throughout, as well as water and scratch-resistant vinyl flooring. Upon entering, you are met with a generous, bright and airy space that combines the kitchen, living, and dining areas.
Key facts
- Quartz countertops
- Conservation views
- Screened lanai
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-523 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (31.8% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (18.8% below list).
- Recommended offer: $198k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 69/100 on livability (#454 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
- Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: San Antonio Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 573 students, 50% FRL); Pasco Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 903 students, 73% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents flat; 426 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.81% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.13%
- Cash-on-cash
- -7.73%
- DSCR
- 0.66
- GRM
- 10.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $292,073
- List price
- $289,999
- Delta
- -0.71%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31451 Spanish Mission Rd | 0.54mi | 3/2.5 | 1,788 (-4%) | 4mo | $360,489 | $202 | 63 |
| 31546 Azure Beach Dr | 0.66mi | 3/2.5 | 1,788 (-4%) | 0mo | $398,990 | $223 | 61 |
| 31530 Azure Beach Dr | 0.65mi | 3/2.5 | 1,788 (-4%) | 3mo | $426,602 | $239 | 60 |
| 31536 Azure Beach Dr | 0.65mi | 3/2.5 | 1,788 (-4%) | 3mo | $427,693 | $239 | 59 |
| 31387 Spanish Mission Rd | 0.49mi | 3/2.5 | 1,674 (-10%) | 1mo | $302,390 | $181 | 58 |
| 31552 Azure Beach Dr | 0.67mi | 3/2.5 | 1,995 (+8%) | 2mo | $511,670 | $256 | 52 |
| 31509 Azure Beach Dr | 0.61mi | 3/2.5 | 1,674 (-10%) | 1mo | $257,990 | $154 | 52 |
| 31513 Azure Beach Dr | 0.62mi | 3/2.5 | 1,674 (-10%) | 2mo | $258,990 | $155 | 51 |
| 31551 Azure Beach Dr | 0.66mi | 3/2.5 | 1,674 (-10%) | 1mo | $270,000 | $161 | 50 |
| 31524 Azure Beach Dr | 0.64mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,995 (+8%) | 2mo | $469,295 | $235 | 48 |
| 31799 Kestrel Calling Dr | 0.74mi | 3/2.5 | 1,602 (-14%) | 0mo | $260,900 | $163 | 41 |
| 31785 Kestrel Calling Dr | 0.74mi | 3/2.5 | 1,602 (-14%) | 0mo | $260,990 | $163 | 40 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-2.32% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -27.0%
- Equity multiple
- 0.04×
- Total profit
- $-77,749
- Equity at exit
- $52,110
- IRR
- -30.2%
- Equity multiple
- -0.55×
- Total profit
- $-125,798
- Equity at exit
- $40,580
Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 27 active · 19 under contract
- Months of supply
- 8.5 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $284,990 ($175/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 87 d
- This list price
- 59% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -10.1% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 33576
- Home prices YoY
- -0.8%
- Rents YoY
- 0.4%
- Active inventory
- 426
- Price-to-rent
- 10.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,354 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,521
- Tax from tax record
- −$409 /mo · $4,903/yr
- Insurance
- −$121
- HOA
- −$332
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$494
- Net cashflow
- $-523
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-359 | -5% $-441 | +0% $-523 | +5% $-605 | +10% $-687 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-709 | -5% $-616 | +0% $-523 | +5% $-430 | +10% $-337 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-377 | -0.5pp $-449 | base $-523 | +0.5pp $-598 | +1.0pp $-674 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $72,500
- Closing costs
- $8,700
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11360 Cay Spruce Way Zephyrhills, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1615 | $2,000 | $1.24 | 23d | 1 | 0.07mi |
| 11317 Cay Spruce Way San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2017 | $2,250 | $1.12 | 12d | 1 | 0.09mi |
| 11322 Cay Spruce Way Unit n/a Zephyrhills, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2003 | $2,420 | $1.21 | 73d | 1 | 0.10mi |
| 11232 Cay Spruce Way Zephyrhills, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1615 | $1,955 | $1.21 | 17d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 11232 Cay Spruce Way San Antonio, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1615 | $1,955 | $1.21 | 13d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 11212 Cay Spruce Way San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1856 | $2,200 | $1.19 | 26d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 11813 June Briar Loop San Antonio, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2161 | $2,495 | $1.15 | 7d | 1 | 0.39mi |
| 10864 Penny Gale Loop Zephyrhills, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1504 | $2,299 | $1.53 | 37d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 11126 Tidepool Ct Unit Na San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1788 | $3,200 | $1.79 | 69d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 11126 Tidepool Ct San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1788 | $3,200 | $1.79 | 71d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 10797 Penny Gale Loop San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1961 | $2,200 | $1.12 | 18d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 10797 Penny Gale Loop Zephyrhills, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1961 | $2,300 | $1.17 | 37d | 1 | 0.64mi |
| 31530 Azure Beach Dr San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1788 | $2,500 | $1.40 | 16d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 31536 Azure Beach Dr San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1788 | $2,500 | $1.40 | 16d | 1 | 0.66mi |
| 31478 Ocean Ave San Antonio, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.5 | 1119 | $2,399 | $2.14 | 13d | 46 | 0.76mi |
| 31825 Kestrel Calling Dr San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1602 | $2,100 | $1.31 | 38d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 11608 Ascend Mirada Blvd San Antonio, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1178 | $2,284 | $1.94 | 7d | 21 | 0.83mi |
| 31524 Magna Gulf Loop San Antonio, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1405 | $2,000 | $1.42 | 27d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 31493 Cannon Rush Dr Wesley Chapel, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1968 | $2,750 | $1.40 | 23d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 31700 Cannon Rush Dr Zephyrhills, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1959 | $2,500 | $1.28 | 29d | 1 | 1.12mi |
| 10462 Weldon Cork Way San Antonio, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1747 | $2,200 | $1.26 | 64d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 32100 Pop Ash Pl San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2319 | $2,450 | $1.06 | 73d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 10225 Fieldstone Myrtle Way San Antonio, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1985 | $2,800 | $1.41 | 59d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 32094 Hawthorne Cottage Pl San Antonio, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1936 | $2,795 | $1.44 | 73d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 11210 Linden Depot Rd San Antonio, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1936 | $2,550 | $1.32 | 54d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 11672 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1870 | $2,495 | $1.33 | 64d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1694 | $2,250 | $1.33 | 73d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1694 | $2,250 | $1.33 | 51d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 11629 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1448 | $2,100 | $1.45 | 9d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 11629 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1448 | $2,145 | $1.48 | 41d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 32067 Eastern Redbud Br San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1639 | $2,250 | $1.37 | 73d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 10765 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1674 | $2,300 | $1.37 | 38d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 32079 Eastern Redbud Br San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1639 | $2,200 | $1.34 | 18d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 11545 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1451 | $2,250 | $1.55 | 73d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 10715 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1681 | $2,050 | $1.22 | 64d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 10708 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1600 | $2,100 | $1.31 | 67d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 10583 Tupper Cay Dr San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1770 | $2,950 | $1.67 | 53d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 32123 Pond Apple Bnd San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1708 | $2,025 | $1.19 | 9d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 10647 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1712 | $2,400 | $1.40 | 73d | 1 | 1.39mi |
| 32108 Pond Apple Bnd San Antonio, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1694 | $2,200 | $1.30 | 18d | 1 | 1.39mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- CDD presentUnfurnishedDirections: From I-75 take exit 282 east on SR 52, right on Miraa Blvd., right on Setter Palm Rd., right on Cay Spruce Way; home on the left.
- Financial info
- Other annual assessment: $1,312Total annual taxes reported for 2024: $4,707Total monthly association fees combined approx. $332.67 (annual $3,992)
- HOA & community
- HOA required (Cay Spruce Townhomes / Breeze Home)Monthly HOA fee $171; additional quarterly fee $367HOA covers cable TV, internet, and grounds maintenanceCommunity features: deed restrictions, playground, golf carts allowedPets allowed
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached garage (1 car)
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerPublic utilities
- Home design
- Residential townhouseTwo storiesEast-facingEntry on main level
- Construction
- Stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt on a 0.07-acre lot (approx. 275 m²)
- Exterior features
- Covered, screened patio/porchSidewalkVinyl fencingIrrigation equipment
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorStone counters
- Bedrooms
- 3 bedrooms
- Flooring
- Carpet
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Central heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Ceiling fansIn-wall pest control systemOpen floorplan with living/dining area comboStone countersWalk-in closet(s)
- Laundry & utility
- Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupLaundry room (upper level, inside)
HOA detail $332/mo · $3,984/yr
- Likely covers
- water
Listing history 29 events
-
2026-07-03days on market $289,999 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $289,999 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $289,999 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $289,999 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $289,999 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $289,999 Active 30 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $289,999 Active 29 DOM
-
2026-06-26days on market $289,999 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-06-24days on market $289,999 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $289,999 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $289,999 Active 23 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $289,999 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $289,999 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $289,999 Active 18 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $289,999 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $289,999 Active 15 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $289,999 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-06-08pricedays on market $289,999 Active 10 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $295,000 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $295,000 Active 6 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $295,000 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $295,000 Active 4 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $295,000 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $295,000 Active 2 DOM
-
2026-04-05$295,000 Active
-
2025-07-31historical
-
2025-07-22status Active
-
2025-07-18status Active
-
2025-04-16$319,900 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $4,903 · $409/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $4,903 · $409/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $28,245
- − Mortgage interest
- −$16,244
- − Property taxes
- −$4,903
- − Insurance
- −$1,450
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,260
- − Management
- −$2,260
- − HOA
- −$3,984
- − Depreciation
- −$8,436
- Taxable loss
- −$11,292
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,710
- After-tax cash flow
- $-3,563/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This spacious 3-bedroom townhome in Mirada, San Antonio, FL, is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with potential for further value enhancement through landscaping and smart home upgrades.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhance curb appeal and increase property value ↑
- Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in curb appeal and value ↑
- Resale Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers ↑
- Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Pasco
- NCES district ID
- 1201530
- Math proficiency
- 50% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 52% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $45,039
- Composite
- 43.14/100
- National rank
- #3074
- State rank
- #32 of 73 in FL
Livability — San Antonio
- Score
- 69/100
- State rank
- #454
- US rank
- #8221
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Pasco County · 570,045 people
- City population
- 6,273
- Metro
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 6,273
- Household income
- $76,388
- Rent vs Own
Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 570,045 people
- By 2030
- 605,844 · +6.3%
- By 2040
- 674,806 · +18.4%
- By 2050
- 736,022 · +29.1%
- By 2075
- 862,900 · +51.4%
- By 2100
- 906,364 · +59.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (81%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Black 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 7% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Pasco
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -2.32%
- Current HPI
- 281.7138
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 0.37%
- Metro
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
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Price history
-9.3% since first listed8 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-08 Price Changed $289,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-05-29 Listed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-05-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-04-05 Listed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-07-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-07-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-04-16 Listed $319,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Property tax history
+31.0%/yrLatest (2025): $4,903 · -7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…