4021 Lowell Ln · Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 756 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1974 0.60 ac lot Est $132k · 16% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to peaceful country-style living in the beautiful city of Zephyrhills! This charming single-wide mobile home sits on a spacious . 60-acre lot in a quiet area with plenty of room to spread out and enjoy. Bring your boats, RVs, trailers, and all your toys there’s ample space with no lot rent because you own the land! Conveniently located near restaurants, shopping, schools, and hospitals, while offering an easy commute to the Tampa and Orlando areas. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, seasonal getaway, or investment opportunity, this property offers comfort, convenience, and freedom with room to grow.

Key facts

• No lot rent
• Spacious lot
• Own the land

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• AMPLE SPACE
• NO LOT RENT
• OWN THE LAND
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.6 acre (0.5 to less than 1 acre)
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces east; Entry at ground level
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a single wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Wall/window unit air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Other laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $542 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.13%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $131,544
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37124 Pepper Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (+14%)	19mo	$150,000	$174	45
36801 Judee Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (+14%)	1mo	$159,900	$185	38
37706 March Ln	0.67mi	2/1.5 (-1)	672 (-11%)	9mo	$80,000	$119	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $11,930
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $36,354
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,643 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,597/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $542

Break-even live

Break-even rent $957

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37819 Alissa Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	18d	1	0.74mi
38031 Meyer Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	24d	1	0.81mi
37925 Date Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.5	720	$1,300	$1.81	24d	1	0.84mi
4639 Coral St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	24d	1	0.87mi
38236 Fir Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	24d	1	1.01mi
4833 Royal Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,090	$1.62	24d	1	1.06mi
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	22d	1	1.19mi
37902 7th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,775	$1.97	24d	1	1.30mi
4940 4th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	24d	1	1.41mi
5237 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$1,700	$1.76	24d	1	1.42mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $110,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $115,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,597 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,597 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,597
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $5,056
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,213
• After-tax cash flow: $5,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills West, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,597 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.