2744 S Raven -- · Mesa, AZ 85209

$435,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,544 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1995 5,240 sqft lot $282/sqft · 10% below area Est $481k · 10% under $55/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms located in Superstition Springs neighborhood. Property has been updated, painted and shows fantastic! The kitchen island and pantry make for cooking meals a dream. Wonderful neighborhood with community park in a Super location!

Key facts

• Community park
• Kitchen island
• 5,240 sq ft lot

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• COMMUNITY PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-630 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (25.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (42.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (42.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 165 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 15718% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,256 (42.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.21%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $481,154
• List price: $435,000
• Delta: -9.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7417 E Naranja Ave	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,544 (0%)	3mo	$430,000	$278	94
7506 E Navarro Ave	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,544 (0%)	1mo	$440,000	$285	89
7533 E Navarro Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+4%)	3mo	$410,000	$255	76
2950 S Mesita --	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,438 (-7%)	1mo	$430,000	$299	58
7522 E Lobo Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-9%)	3mo	$388,900	$276	57
7246 E Lomita Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+6%)	1mo	$440,000	$270	56
7344 E Medina Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (+11%)	3mo	$445,000	$259	50
7836 E Neville Ave	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (+7%)	1mo	$425,000	$257	50
7726 E Navarro Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,331 (-14%)	2mo	$327,500	$246	47
3041 S Aletta --	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,751 (+13%)	3mo	$505,000	$288	44
7805 E Neville Ave	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,345 (-13%)	2mo	$349,900	$260	44
7866 E Neville Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (+7%)	3mo	$440,000	$265	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-28,838
• Equity at exit: $158,550

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-7,852
• Equity at exit: $218,700

Cash invested: $121,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,523 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,265/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-630

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,320

Max offer price $323,704

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,750
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7323 E Navarro Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2212	$2,266	$1.02	22d	1	0.13mi
2728 S Sawyer Cir Mesa, AZ	3.0	3.0	2241	$2,595	$1.16	43d	1	0.14mi
7306 E Naranja Ave Mesa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	43d	1	0.16mi
7246 E Naranja Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,495	$1.46	3d	1	0.20mi
7414 E Onza Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1637	$2,630	$1.61	2d	1	0.22mi
7515 E Laguna Azul Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	3.0	2169	$4,500	$2.07	43d	1	0.49mi
7515 E Laguna Azul Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	3.0	2169	$4,500	$2.07	5d	1	0.49mi
7521 E Laguna Azul Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1544	$2,315	$1.50	43d	1	0.49mi
7251 E Lakeview Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2058	$2,550	$1.24	15d	1	0.65mi
7064 E Lobo Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1980	$2,440	$1.23	22d	1	0.68mi
6910 E Madero Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,050	$1.27	12d	1	0.75mi
7253 E Kiva Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1521	$2,100	$1.38	2d	1	0.76mi
3922 E Lobo Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1691	$2,200	$1.30	22d	1	0.82mi
668 N Sparrow Ct Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2226	$2,800	$1.26	24d	1	0.82mi
4754 E Olive Ave Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	2058	$2,500	$1.21	43d	1	0.82mi
4737 E Barbarita Ave Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2226	$2,900	$1.30	18d	1	0.82mi
4752 E Laurel Ave Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1262	$2,850	$2.26	43d	1	0.86mi
692 N Blackbird Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2226	$2,350	$1.06	20d	1	0.87mi
497 N Ranger Trl Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2028	$1,200	$0.59	12d	1	0.88mi
4776 E Guadalupe Rd Gilbert, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,025	$1.76	2d	12	0.89mi
4714 E Laurel Ave Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1262	$1,925	$1.53	43d	1	0.91mi
6959 E Kessler Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,150	$1.40	24d	1	0.91mi
4649 E Towne Ln Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2189	$2,845	$1.30	43d	1	0.91mi
2990 S Power Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1129	$1,596	$1.41	5d	19	0.92mi
7052 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,195	$1.43	43d	1	0.92mi
7007 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1533	$4,000	$2.61	24d	1	0.93mi
2047 S Jefferson Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,495	$1.84	43d	1	0.94mi
4685 E Laurel Ave Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1262	$1,895	$1.50	43d	1	0.94mi
2058 S Longwood Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1408	$1,750	$1.24	43d	1	0.95mi
7014 E Kiva Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,185	$1.43	43d	1	0.97mi
2311 S Farnsworth Dr #85 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1332	$3,300	$2.48	3d	1	1.01mi
4526 E Towne Ln Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,595	$1.42	5d	1	1.09mi
8240 E Obispo Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1655	$2,200	$1.33	18d	1	1.14mi
907 N Falcon Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,995	$1.53	5d	1	1.14mi
7950 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1228	$1,995	$1.62	24d	1	1.17mi
3315 S Lotus Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1744	$2,400	$1.38	43d	1	1.21mi
3336 S Lotus Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1744	$2,350	$1.35	24d	1	1.23mi
4401 E Stanford Ave Unit 1545846P Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1517	$3,102	$2.04	16d	1	1.27mi
8020 E Keats Ave #299 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1679	$2,600	$1.55	43d	1	1.27mi
8433 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$4,045	$4.32	1d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $435,000 Pending 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $435,000 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $435,000 Active 149 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $435,000 Active 148 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $435,000 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $435,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-04-24
   price $435,000 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms located in Superstition Springs neighborhood. Property has been updated, painted and shows fantastic! The kitchen island and pantry make for cooking meals a dream. Wonderful neighborhood with community park in a Super location!

8. 2026-03-23
   price $439,900 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms located in Superstition Springs neighborhood. Property has been updated, painted and shows fantastic! The kitchen island and pantry make for cooking meals a dream. Wonderful neighborhood with community park in a Super location!

9. 2026-02-12
   price $444,900 256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (256 chars)

   3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms located in Superstition Springs neighborhood. Property has been updated, painted and shows fantastic! The kitchen island and pantry make for cooking meals a dream. Wonderful neighborhood with community park in a Super location!

10. 2026-02-07
    price $2,600
11. 2026-01-23
    price $2,695
12. 2026-01-16
    listed $2,750
13. 2026-01-05
    listed $449,900 Active 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms located in Superstition Springs neighborhood. Property has been updated, painted and shows fantastic! The kitchen island and pantry make for cooking meals a dream. Wonderful neighborhood with community park in a Super location!

14. 2024-11-07
    soldstatus $400,000
15. 2024-11-05
    soldstatus $400,000 Closed 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Two-story home with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms located in desirable Superstition Springs neighborhood. Property has carpet and tile flooring, as well as laminate flooring in the kitchen and family room. Kitchen has center island and pantry. Wonderful neighborhood with community park! Great location!

16. 2024-10-30
    soldstatus $7,272,000
17. 2024-09-25
    status Pending 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Two-story home with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms located in desirable Superstition Springs neighborhood. Property has carpet and tile flooring, as well as laminate flooring in the kitchen and family room. Kitchen has center island and pantry. Wonderful neighborhood with community park! Great location!

18. 2024-09-13
    price $399,950 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Two-story home with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms located in desirable Superstition Springs neighborhood. Property has carpet and tile flooring, as well as laminate flooring in the kitchen and family room. Kitchen has center island and pantry. Wonderful neighborhood with community park! Great location!

19. 2024-08-16
    listed $425,000 Active 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Two-story home with 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms located in desirable Superstition Springs neighborhood. Property has carpet and tile flooring, as well as laminate flooring in the kitchen and family room. Kitchen has center island and pantry. Wonderful neighborhood with community park! Great location!

20. 2023-11-21
    historical $2,045
21. 2023-11-15
    price $2,045
22. 2023-11-03
    listed $2,075
23. 2019-07-01
    soldstatus $236,000
24. 2019-06-04
    soldstatus $243,656
25. 2008-09-22
    soldstatus $173,000
26. 2008-08-01
    historical
27. 2008-07-23
    listed $159,000
28. 2008-03-07
    historical
29. 2007-09-20
    listed $160,000
30. 1995-10-03
    soldstatus $126,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,265 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,871 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,606/yr (+$134/mo · 127.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,367
• − Property taxes: −$1,265
• − Insurance: −$2,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,422
• − Management: −$2,422
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$12,655
• Taxable loss: −$15,694
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,767
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+245.2% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $435,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $439,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $444,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $2,600 ARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $2,695 ARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed for Rent $2,750 ARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $449,900 ARMLS
• 2024-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $400,000 Public Records
• 2024-11-05 Sold (MLS) $400,000 ARMLS
• 2024-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $7,272,000 Public Records
• 2024-09-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-09-13 Price Changed $399,950 ARMLS
• 2024-08-16 Listed $425,000 ARMLS
• 2023-11-21 Rental Removed $2,045 RENTLY
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $2,045 RENTLY
• 2023-11-03 Listed for Rent $2,075 RENTLY
• 2019-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $236,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $243,656 Public Records
• 2008-09-22 Sold (MLS) $173,000 ARMLS
• 2008-08-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-07-23 Listed $159,000 ARMLS
• 2008-03-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-09-20 Listed $160,000 ARMLS
• 1995-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,265 · -14.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.