3864 Chesapeake Ln NW · Rochester, MN 55901

$350,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,745 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1987 8,146 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT TRI-LEVEL IN CONVIENT LOCATION WITH 3 LARGE BEDROOMS, OPEN FLOOR PLAN 2 WALK-OUT LEVELS AND MUCH MORE.

Key facts

• 8,146 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1987

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; 150 amp electrical service; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Three-level split
• Construction: Block and brick construction; Foundation area approximately 1,146 square feet
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Chain link and wood fencing; Medium tree coverage on lot; Lot dimensions approximately 72 x 113

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (includes upper-level full bath and full basement bath)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Finished basement with storage and egress window(s); Walkout basement; Tile floors; Water softener (rented)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John Marshall Senior High (math 37% / reading 58%, grade D, #162 of 471 statewide, top 35%, 1,573 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $228k; list at $350k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $251,192 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-78,618
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-102,418
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55901

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,770/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,906

Max offer price $295,057

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6251 Fairway Dr NW Rochester, MN	4.0	2.0	2212	$2,525	$1.14	44d	1	0.49mi
5441 Weatherstone Cir NW Rochester, MN	3.0	1.5	1202	$1,495	$1.24	21d	1	1.04mi
3955 Superior Dr NW Rochester, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	918	$3,699	$4.03	13d	141	1.17mi
6635 Lodge View DR NW Rochester, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1317	$2,889	$2.19	13d	37	1.31mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-06
   status Active
4. 2026-04-01
   historical Contingent - Inspection
5. 2026-03-28
   listed $350,000 Active
6. 2026-03-27
   historical $350,000
7. 2018-08-02
   soldstatus $228,000
8. 2002-05-01
   soldstatus $151,850 108-char remark

   Show marketing remark (108 chars)

   GREAT TRI-LEVEL IN CONVIENT LOCATION WITH 3 LARGE BEDROOMS, OPEN FLOOR PLAN 2 WALK-OUT LEVELS AND MUCH MORE.

9. 2002-05-01
   soldstatus $151,850

   Show marketing remark (108 chars)

   GREAT TRI-LEVEL IN CONVIENT LOCATION WITH 3 LARGE BEDROOMS, OPEN FLOOR PLAN 2 WALK-OUT LEVELS AND MUCH MORE.

10. 2002-04-09
    historical 108-char remark

    Show marketing remark (108 chars)

    GREAT TRI-LEVEL IN CONVIENT LOCATION WITH 3 LARGE BEDROOMS, OPEN FLOOR PLAN 2 WALK-OUT LEVELS AND MUCH MORE.

11. 2002-02-07
    listed $144,900 108-char remark

    Show marketing remark (108 chars)

    GREAT TRI-LEVEL IN CONVIENT LOCATION WITH 3 LARGE BEDROOMS, OPEN FLOOR PLAN 2 WALK-OUT LEVELS AND MUCH MORE.

12. 1999-06-15
    soldstatus $119,500
13. 1993-10-01
    soldstatus $98,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,770 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,845 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$75/yr (+$6/mo · 2.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$3,770
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,411
• − Management: −$2,411
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$9,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,397
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 58,495
• Household income: $94,607
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1651.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Asian 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.08%
• Current HPI: 253.7999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+253.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Listed $350,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Coming Soon $350,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $228,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $151,850 Public Records
• 2002-05-01 Sold (MLS) $151,850 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-04-09 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-02-07 Listed $144,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $119,500 Public Records
• 1993-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $98,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,770 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.