202 Waverly Loop · Lake Wales, FL 33859

$240,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,356 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1999 0.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious and Move-In Ready! Offering 2,356 heated square feet, this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home combines comfort, space, and convenience. The split bedroom floor plan features generously sized rooms, with walk-in closets in three bedrooms, providing abundant storage throughout. The remodeled kitchen is sure to impress with granite countertops, tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and an abundance of new cabinetry. The inviting living room features a fireplace, creating the perfect space to gather and unwind. Recent updates include double-pane windows, luxury vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas and bedrooms, a new roof (2026), new hot water heater (2026),

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is residentially zoned (RES); Lot approximately 0.37 acre (100 x 136); Asphalt/paved road access; Living area approx. 2,356 sq ft (public records)
• HOA & community: No HOA/association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking or carport
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured triple-wide home; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Deck; Wood fencing; Cleared, level lot in county

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone countertops
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Wood-burning fireplace
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments (drapes, double pane windows)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#535 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spook Hill Elementary School (math 28% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 584 students, 67% FRL); Mclaughlin Academy of Excellence (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #437 of 571 statewide, top 77%, 542 students, 68% FRL); Mulberry Senior High School (math 21% / reading 36%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,315 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,288 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.08%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-31,515
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-18,038
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33859

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,113 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,331/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,966

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $252	-5% $184	+0% $116	+5% $48	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-51	-5% $33	+0% $116	+5% $200	+10% $283
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $177	base $116	+0.5pp $54	+1.0pp $-9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
243 Brookshire Dr Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	2330	$1,971	$0.85	16d	1	0.71mi
474 Hennepin Loop Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,850	$1.16	25d	1	0.79mi
238 Dinner Lake Pl Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1913	$1,950	$1.02	25d	1	0.80mi
243 C F Kinney Rd Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,600	$1.62	23d	1	0.82mi
343 Dinner Lake Ct Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1801	$2,400	$1.33	16d	1	0.89mi
802 Ballantyne Dr Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1928	$2,100	$1.09	25d	1	0.90mi
199 Dinner Lake Loop Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1599	$1,800	$1.13	16d	1	1.05mi
1139 Amber Waves Ct Lake Wales, FL	5.0	2.0	1739	$1,795	$1.03	16d	1	1.06mi
346 Rustic Rail Dr Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,150	$1.17	16d	1	1.11mi
338 Rustic Rail Dr Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1841	$2,150	$1.17	16d	1	1.12mi
517 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.5	1897	$2,100	$1.11	16d	1	1.16mi
413 Singing Sands Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$1,950	$1.07	5d	1	1.16mi
645 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.5	1933	$2,000	$1.03	13d	1	1.21mi
626 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1931	$2,600	$1.35	25d	1	1.21mi
598 Bell Prairie Cir Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.5	1931	$2,100	$1.09	25d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $240,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $240,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,331 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,331 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$2,331
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,028
• − Management: −$2,028
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$2,659
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$638
• After-tax cash flow: $2,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Wales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 30,351
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,824
• Household income: $57,760
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 408.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.19%
• Current HPI: 267.4537
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,331 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.