238 Emerling Dr · Cool Valley, MO 63121

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,037 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1953 6,499 sqft lot $96/sqft · 20% below area Est $124k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment opportunity located in Cool Valley. Entering through the front door you will see beautiful hardwoods in the large living room. 2 bedrooms are located on the main floor along with the main bathroom. Nice white kitchen with refrigerator, stove, and dishwasher. Dining room has potential to be converted to bedroom #3. Partially finished basement with two separate rooms for offices/storage and a large common room perfect for entertainment. The full bathroom in the basement is a bonus. Previously rented at $825/month

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• Built 1953
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (other)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; House structure
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $345 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#116 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mccluer High (math 0% / reading 17%, grade F, #511 of 521 statewide, top 98%, 1,181 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 23 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $100k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.80%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,594
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -19.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
238 Emerling Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,032 (-0%)	0mo	$99,900	$97	99
242 Emerling Dr	0.01mi	3/1.0	1,037 (0%)	1mo	$129,900	$125	94
246 Emerling Dr	0.02mi	3/1.0	1,037 (0%)	5mo	$149,999	$145	91
8408 Hill Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+0%)	3mo	$95,000	$91	83
4723 N Hills Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	965 (-7%)	0mo	$85,000	$88	81
4815 Barbara Dr	0.23mi	3/1.5	988 (-5%)	5mo	$98,500	$100	75
120 Bernhardt Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,002 (-3%)	1mo	$74,900	$75	64
5150 Wallingford Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,118 (+8%)	3mo	$154,900	$139	61
8350 Hill Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	912 (-12%)	1mo	$94,900	$104	60
5547 Holborn Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-0%)	3mo	$69,900	$68	60
5520 Holborn Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,032 (-0%)	3mo	$124,000	$120	58
5616 Parchester Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,102 (+6%)	1mo	$84,900	$77	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $8,723
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $48,498
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63121

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,288 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,288/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $852

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8408 Hill Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,550	$1.49	23d	1	0.33mi
204 Hawkesbury Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	849	$1,250	$1.47	4d	1	0.52mi
5300 Grove Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	23d	1	0.62mi
7808 Winward Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1434	$1,425	$0.99	21d	1	0.63mi
806 Marvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	726	$1,100	$1.52	43d	1	0.69mi
5925 Brand Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	951	$1,200	$1.26	43d	1	0.71mi
801 Thomas Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	43d	1	0.74mi
7816 Dartmoor Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	43d	1	0.76mi
5900 Sheriton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,050	$1.22	23d	1	0.79mi
846 Elsworth Pl Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1352	$1,600	$1.18	4d	1	0.81mi
709 Suburban Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$1,400	$1.44	43d	1	0.83mi
450 S Dade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	23d	1	0.85mi
5500 Mable Ave Unit 5530 B1 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	850	$915	$1.08	43d	1	0.86mi
5500 Mable Ave Unit 5518 B4 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$835	$1.11	43d	1	0.86mi
223 Wiegel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,560	$1.81	12d	1	0.88mi
422 Plaza Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	7d	1	0.93mi
5830 Bermuda Dr Unit 34C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$895	$1.05	43d	1	0.94mi
5830 Bermuda Dr Unit 30B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	23d	1	0.94mi
519 Graf Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	887	$1,297	$1.46	20d	1	0.95mi
360 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	936	$925	$0.99	43d	1	0.98mi
617 Tesmore Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	877	$1,200	$1.37	43d	1	0.98mi
26 Arbor Village Ct Ferguson, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	714	$950	$1.33	23d	1	1.02mi
222 Randolph Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	7d	1	1.07mi
12 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	832	$1,080	$1.30	7d	1	1.08mi
265 S Harvey Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,350	$1.09	43d	1	1.09mi
246 Louisa Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,600	$1.54	43d	1	1.11mi
419 S Florissant Rd Ferguson, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	1.15mi
6170 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,500	$1.17	14d	1	1.18mi
6170 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,425	$1.11	2d	1	1.18mi
110 Paul Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	875	$1,050	$1.20	7d	1	1.19mi
6180 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	729	$1,300	$1.78	43d	1	1.20mi
6188 Dupree Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	972	$1,300	$1.34	43d	1	1.23mi
338 Saint Louis Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	1.30mi
9316 Koenig Cir Berkeley, MO	2.0	1.0	720	$1,150	$1.60	4d	5	1.33mi
601 Carson Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	743	$950	$1.28	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 435-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $99,900 Active 435-char remark
3. 2019-07-08
   soldstatus $48,250
4. 2019-06-07
   soldstatus Closed 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   Excellent investment opportunity located in Cool Valley. Entering through the front door you will see beautiful hardwoods in the large living room. 2 bedrooms are located on the main floor along with the main bathroom. Nice white kitchen with refrigerator, stove, and dishwasher. Dining room has potential to be converted to bedroom #3. Partially finished basement with two separate rooms for offices/storage and a large common room perfect for entertainment. The full bathroom in the basement is a bonus. Previously rented at $825/month

5. 2019-05-23
   status Pending 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   Excellent investment opportunity located in Cool Valley. Entering through the front door you will see beautiful hardwoods in the large living room. 2 bedrooms are located on the main floor along with the main bathroom. Nice white kitchen with refrigerator, stove, and dishwasher. Dining room has potential to be converted to bedroom #3. Partially finished basement with two separate rooms for offices/storage and a large common room perfect for entertainment. The full bathroom in the basement is a bonus. Previously rented at $825/month

6. 2019-05-20
   listed $52,000 Active 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   Excellent investment opportunity located in Cool Valley. Entering through the front door you will see beautiful hardwoods in the large living room. 2 bedrooms are located on the main floor along with the main bathroom. Nice white kitchen with refrigerator, stove, and dishwasher. Dining room has potential to be converted to bedroom #3. Partially finished basement with two separate rooms for offices/storage and a large common room perfect for entertainment. The full bathroom in the basement is a bonus. Previously rented at $825/month

7. 2015-04-07
   soldstatus $34,000
8. 2014-12-22
   soldstatus $16,500
9. 2014-11-14
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (133 chars)

   Home for sale in AS IS condition, please put on special sales contract. Wow! Great home at a great price, priced to sell! Show today!

10. 2014-09-15
    listed $17,000

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    Home for sale in AS IS condition, please put on special sales contract. Wow! Great home at a great price, priced to sell! Show today!

11. 2014-04-17
    soldstatus $10,000
12. 2007-07-24
    soldstatus $95,000
13. 2007-06-20
    soldstatus $64,000
14. 1992-09-30
    soldstatus
15. 1992-05-28
    soldstatus $32,000
16. 1990-04-01
    soldstatus
17. 1990-04-01
    soldstatus $44,640

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,288 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,288 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,288
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,237
• − Management: −$1,237
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,698
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$647
• After-tax cash flow: $3,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Cool Valley

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #7242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cool Valley, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 25,008
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 25,008
• Household income: $42,701
• Rent vs Own: 48.4% rent · 51.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1611.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 80% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.84%
• Current HPI: 100.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+123.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $48,250 Public Records
• 2019-06-07 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-23 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-20 Listed $52,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2014-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records
• 2014-11-14 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-15 Listed $17,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 2007-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2007-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1992-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 1990-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,640 Public Records
• 1990-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,288 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.