104 E Elms Rd · Killeen, TX 76542

$139,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1983 0.58 ac lot $70/sqft · 36% below area Est $219k · 36% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom property presents excellent potential for those seeking extra space. There is one bedroom and bathroom with a shower on one side of the home with an extra room ideal for an office. The secondary bedrooms are on the other side of the home with a primary bedroom and on-suite bathroom. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and is open to the dining area. The backyard features privacy fencing that creates a secure, enclosed environment. A covered patio offers protected space for relaxation and entertaining, while mature shade trees provide natural comfort and established beauty to the yard. The location provides convenient access to Ellison High School & all other amenities. With desirable features already in place and prime educational proximity, this represents a compelling opportunity for investors or owner occupants ready to transform potential into value. Schedule your tour today to see this property!

Key facts

• 0.58 acre lot
• Built 1983
• Listed 93 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.9% in Killeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, employment D.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 643 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.09%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,250
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -36.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
506 Turtle Back Cv	0.60mi	4/2.5	1,998 (+0%)	10mo	$265,000	$133	62
307 E Little Dipper	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,885 (-5%)	4mo	$230,000	$122	55
306 E Libra Dr	0.70mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,974 (-1%)	5mo	$260,000	$132	53
403 W Little Dipper Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,940 (-3%)	23mo	$264,999	$137	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-16,968
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-19,974
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76542

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 643
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,721 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$402 /mo · $4,822/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,511

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
303 Carly Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1515	$1,700	$1.12	13d	1	0.14mi
502 Sladecek Dr Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,275	$0.98	43d	1	0.23mi
601 Sladecek Dr Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,500	$1.12	43d	1	0.26mi
601 Sladecek Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,200	$0.90	43d	1	0.26mi
4702 Ronald Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,800	$1.41	43d	1	0.31mi
701 Sladecek Dr Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,350	$1.03	13d	1	0.32mi
4801 Addie Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1883	$1,700	$0.90	43d	1	0.35mi
5001 Addie Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,500	$1.07	23d	1	0.47mi
5211 James Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,550	$1.07	43d	1	0.51mi
5007 Chad Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,495	$1.03	13d	1	0.58mi
3312 Cantabrian Dr Unit D Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	2016	$1,050	$0.52	43d	1	0.59mi
104 W Little Dipper Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$1,750	$1.07	13d	1	0.62mi
507 W Little Dipper Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1657	$1,800	$1.09	13d	1	0.62mi
402 W Little Dipper Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1554	$1,800	$1.16	43d	1	0.62mi
405 E Libra Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1646	$1,850	$1.12	23d	1	0.67mi
300 W Libra Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	2070	$1,900	$0.92	23d	1	0.67mi
102 W Libra Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,800	$0.96	43d	1	0.67mi
304 W Libra Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	2033	$1,850	$0.91	23d	1	0.67mi
5010 James Loop Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1609	$1,695	$1.05	23d	1	0.68mi
1107 Carlsberg Dr Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,445	$1.14	13d	1	0.69mi
1108 Carlsberg Dr Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,400	$1.10	23d	1	0.69mi
500 W Libra Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.5	2106	$1,900	$0.90	23d	1	0.69mi
502 E Libra Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.5	2490	$1,945	$0.78	23d	1	0.72mi
505 W Vega Ln Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,550	$0.96	13d	1	0.72mi
806 James Loop Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,695	$1.07	43d	1	0.73mi
3210 Toledo Dr Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	2234	$1,150	$0.51	43d	1	0.73mi
211 W Orion Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	3.0	2506	$2,095	$0.84	23d	1	0.75mi
5704 Capricorn Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,425	$1.01	23d	1	0.76mi
709 W Vega Ln Killeen, TX	4.0	2.5	2106	$2,100	$1.00	23d	1	0.78mi
5701 Capricorn Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,450	$1.02	43d	1	0.78mi
2809 Leroy Cir Unit D Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$975	$0.75	23d	1	0.79mi
107 W Gemini Ln Killeen, TX	3.0	3.0	1856	$1,575	$0.85	43d	1	0.81mi
1111 Cinch Dr Unit A Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,200	$0.93	23d	1	0.83mi
108 W Gemini Ln Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	1856	$1,900	$1.02	23d	1	0.83mi
1101 Grace Point Dr Apt B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,550	$0.89	13d	1	0.83mi
702 W Orion Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$1,825	$1.00	21d	1	0.84mi
807 Bass Cir Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	2162	$1,800	$0.83	23d	1	0.86mi
1100 Clairidge Ave Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1451	$1,545	$1.06	23d	1	0.87mi
411 Taurus Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.5	2452	$1,895	$0.77	43d	1	0.89mi
4200 Ivory Ln Unit B Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,350	$1.04	43d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $139,900 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $144,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $144,900 Active 74 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    price $144,900 951-char remark

    Show marketing remark (951 chars)

    This 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom property presents excellent potential for those seeking extra space. There is one bedroom and bathroom with a shower on one side of the home with an extra room ideal for an office. The secondary bedrooms are on the other side of the home with a primary bedroom and on-suite bathroom. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and is open to the dining area. The backyard features privacy fencing that creates a secure, enclosed environment. A covered patio offers protected space for relaxation and entertaining, while mature shade trees provide natural comfort and established beauty to the yard. The location provides convenient access to Ellison High School & all other amenities. With desirable features already in place and prime educational proximity, this represents a compelling opportunity for investors or owner occupants ready to transform potential into value. Schedule your tour today to see this property!

19. 2026-04-09
    price $149,900 951-char remark

    Show marketing remark (951 chars)

    This 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom property presents excellent potential for those seeking extra space. There is one bedroom and bathroom with a shower on one side of the home with an extra room ideal for an office. The secondary bedrooms are on the other side of the home with a primary bedroom and on-suite bathroom. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and is open to the dining area. The backyard features privacy fencing that creates a secure, enclosed environment. A covered patio offers protected space for relaxation and entertaining, while mature shade trees provide natural comfort and established beauty to the yard. The location provides convenient access to Ellison High School & all other amenities. With desirable features already in place and prime educational proximity, this represents a compelling opportunity for investors or owner occupants ready to transform potential into value. Schedule your tour today to see this property!

20. 2026-03-17
    listed $154,900 Active 951-char remark

    Show marketing remark (951 chars)

    This 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom property presents excellent potential for those seeking extra space. There is one bedroom and bathroom with a shower on one side of the home with an extra room ideal for an office. The secondary bedrooms are on the other side of the home with a primary bedroom and on-suite bathroom. The kitchen provides ample cabinet space and is open to the dining area. The backyard features privacy fencing that creates a secure, enclosed environment. A covered patio offers protected space for relaxation and entertaining, while mature shade trees provide natural comfort and established beauty to the yard. The location provides convenient access to Ellison High School & all other amenities. With desirable features already in place and prime educational proximity, this represents a compelling opportunity for investors or owner occupants ready to transform potential into value. Schedule your tour today to see this property!

21. 2022-11-21
    soldstatus
22. 2022-06-21
    soldstatus
23. 2008-07-25
    soldstatus
24. 2005-01-18
    soldstatus
25. 1983-11-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,822 · $402/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,822 · $402/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$4,822
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,653
• − Management: −$1,653
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$76
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$18
• After-tax cash flow: $2,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

Livability — Killeen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #853
• US rank: #15359

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Killeen, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 163,398
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,892
• Household income: $74,055
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1167.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.94%
• Current HPI: 158.4385
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $144,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $149,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $154,900 CTXMLS
• 2022-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-01-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1983-11-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,822 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.