125 Pin Oak Trl · Milledgeville, GA 31061

$159,900

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2024 0.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New construction townhome in Milledgeville, GA! Located at 125 Pin Oak Trail, this 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath Colonial-style townhouse offers modern finishes and USDA 100% financing eligibility for qualified buyers - making homeownership more attainable than ever. Built in 2025, the home features granite countertops in the kitchen and full baths, stainless steel appliances, 36" cabinetry, a spacious kitchen island, and durable LVP flooring throughout the main level. Upstairs bedrooms are carpeted for comfort. An energy-efficient HVAC system and smart thermostat help reduce monthly utility costs. Enjoy true low-maintenance living in a convenient location just minutes from Kroger Marketplace, d

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• New construction
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• LVP FLOORING
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT HVAC

🏗️ New construction. The $159,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $263,640.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.9% in Milledgeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#134 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (town): math 13% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #152 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Primary (835 students, 89% FRL); Oak Hill Ms (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #372 of 470 statewide, top 80%, 986 students, 89% FRL); Baldwin High School (math 10% / reading 21%, grade F, #290 of 424 statewide, top 69%, 1,311 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 72% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 202 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $126k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,640
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 Oakwood Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,538 (-1%)	10mo	$260,000	$169	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-60,467
• Equity at exit: $39,310

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-70,501
• Equity at exit: $22,795

Cash invested: $73,819 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31061

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,690 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,383
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,784/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,077

Max offer price $209,651

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,910
• Closing costs: $7,909
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
302 Oakwood Dr NW Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1538	$1,684	$1.09	44d	1	0.05mi
274 Oakwood Dr NW Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1538	$1,734	$1.13	44d	1	0.08mi
425 Oakwood Dr NW Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1538	$1,684	$1.09	44d	1	0.08mi
454 Oakwood Dr NW Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1538	$1,950	$1.27	44d	1	0.10mi
261 Oakwood Dr NW Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1538	$1,684	$1.09	44d	1	0.11mi
146 Cypress Oak Trl NW Milledgeville, GA	2.0	2.0	1351	$1,595	$1.18	44d	1	0.22mi
180 Milledge Commons Dr NE Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1381	$1,800	$1.30	44d	1	0.92mi
162 Milledge Commons Dr NE Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1381	$1,800	$1.30	44d	1	0.94mi
109 Milledge Commons Dr Milledgeville, GA	3.0	2.5	1895	$2,100	$1.11	44d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-18
   price $159,900
3. 2026-02-23
   listed $184,500 New
4. 2024-09-05
   soldstatus $126,000
5. 2022-05-17
   soldstatus $1,397,500
6. 2022-05-17
   soldstatus $2,015,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,768
• − Property taxes: −$1,784
• − Insurance: −$1,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,623
• − Management: −$1,623
• − Depreciation: −$7,670
• Taxable loss: −$8,500
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,040
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 1300210
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,615
• Composite: 13.61/100
• National rank: #9508
• State rank: #152 of 174 in GA

Livability — Milledgeville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #9206

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 41,764 people
• City population: 41,764
• Metro: Milledgeville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,764
• Household income: $54,263
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1630.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,602 people
• By 2030: 45,481 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 44,310 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 42,129 · -7.6%
• By 2075: 36,819 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 29,320 · -35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 43% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.8pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+1.3 2016: D+1.7 2012: D+5.5 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.16%
• Current HPI: 241.3758
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Milledgeville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-88.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $159,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $184,500 GAMLS
• 2024-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $2,015,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $1,397,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+46.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,784 · +1891.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.