4307 Sconce · Williamsburg, VA 23188

$314,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,294 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2018 2,178 sqft lot Est $273k · 15% over $128/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Better than new 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, end unit townhomes! Open floorplan, overlooking 3 acre park! 1st home, downsize home or real estate investing, you pick! This one checks all the boxes!

Key facts

• $128 HOA
• Built 2018
• Listed 45 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Wooded view; Located in Village at Candle Station neighborhood
• HOA & community: Homeowners association: The Villages at Candle Station; HOA fee: $128 monthly; Ground maintenance, playgrounds, and trash pickup included

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Driveway space; Street parking
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Attached townhouse; End unit; Two stories; Two living levels; Slab foundation
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Patio; Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom with ensuite; Master bedroom with bath
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced hot air heating; Natural gas heat
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Scuttle access; Walk-in closet
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Utility closet; 220 V electrical outlet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-541/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 429 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in James City County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• James City County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,659 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,034
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4110 Votive Dr	0.10mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,280 (-1%)	24mo	$270,000	$211	69
103 Wilson Cir	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,400 (+8%)	8mo	$110,000	$79	51
102 Haradd Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,264 (-2%)	13mo	$330,000	$261	50
7436 Richmond Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-13%)	5mo	$320,000	$284	48
105 Peninsula St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,374 (+6%)	13mo	$212,000	$154	44
105 Peninsula St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,374 (+6%)	13mo	$212,000	$154	44
206 Nina Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+12%)	9mo	$350,000	$240	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-55,133
• Equity at exit: $46,953

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-56,719
• Equity at exit: $27,227

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23188

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 429
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,567 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,946/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$128
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $306,933

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $44	+0% $-45	+5% $-134	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-146	+0% $-45	+5% $56	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $35	base $-45	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7537 Luminary Dr Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,600	$1.48	3d	1	0.09mi
1603 Rustads Cir Williamsburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1376	$2,200	$1.60	4d	1	0.93mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $128 · $1,536/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $314,900 Under Contract 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $314,900 Active Under Contract 45 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $314,900 Active Under Contract 44 DOM
4. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Better than new 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, end unit townhomes! Open floorplan, overlooking 3 acre park! 1st home, downsize home or real estate investing, you pick! This one checks all the boxes!

5. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Better than new 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, end unit townhomes! Open floorplan, overlooking 3 acre park! 1st home, downsize home or real estate investing, you pick! This one checks all the boxes!

6. 2026-05-20
   historical Active Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Better than new 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, end unit townhomes! Open floorplan, overlooking 3 acre park! 1st home, downsize home or real estate investing, you pick! This one checks all the boxes!

7. 2026-05-15
   price $314,900

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Better than new 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, end unit townhomes! Open floorplan, overlooking 3 acre park! 1st home, downsize home or real estate investing, you pick! This one checks all the boxes!

8. 2026-05-15
   price $314,900 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Better than new 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, end unit townhomes! Open floorplan, overlooking 3 acre park! 1st home, downsize home or real estate investing, you pick! This one checks all the boxes!

9. 2026-05-15
   price $314,900 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   Better than new 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, end unit townhomes! Open floorplan, overlooking 3 acre park! 1st home, downsize home or real estate investing, you pick! This one checks all the boxes!

10. 2026-04-17
    price $319,900
11. 2026-04-16
    listed $319,900 Active 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    Better than new 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, end unit townhomes! Open floorplan, overlooking 3 acre park! 1st home, downsize home or real estate investing, you pick! This one checks all the boxes!

12. 2026-04-16
    listed $319,900 Active 190-char remark

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    Better than new 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, end unit townhomes! Open floorplan, overlooking 3 acre park! 1st home, downsize home or real estate investing, you pick! This one checks all the boxes!

13. 2026-04-16
    listed $319,899 Active

    Show marketing remark (190 chars)

    Better than new 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, end unit townhomes! Open floorplan, overlooking 3 acre park! 1st home, downsize home or real estate investing, you pick! This one checks all the boxes!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,946 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,582 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$637/yr (+$53/mo · 32.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$1,946
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,464
• − Management: −$2,464
• − HOA: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$5,985
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,436
• After-tax cash flow: $895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #734

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment B Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: James City County · 45,803 people
• City population: 101,073
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 45,803
• Household income: $103,160
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1353.0

Population outlook (James City County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,286 people
• By 2030: 89,687 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 99,580 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 108,487 · +28.7%
• By 2075: 128,950 · +53.0%
• By 2100: 138,702 · +64.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · James City

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.2) · D 52.5% · R 46.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.5pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: 6.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.2 2020: D+4.8 2016: R+5.1 2012: R+12.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -213.65%
• Current HPI: 226.2192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — CBRAR
• 2026-05-20 Pending — WMLS
• 2026-05-20 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $314,900 REINMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $314,900 CBRAR
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $314,900 WMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $319,900 REINMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $319,899 REINMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $319,900 WMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $319,900 CBRAR

Property tax history

+22.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,946 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.