596 Mill St · Conneaut, OH 44030

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1900 4,356 sqft lot Est $129k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and well maintained two bedroom colonial in the heart of Conneaut! This adorable home offers the perfect blend of character and comfort with newer appliances that stay, a newer furnace and hot water tank, and a cozy layout that feels like home the moment you walk in. The main floor bonus room/den provides flexible space and could easily be used as a potential third bedroom, office, or playroom. Enjoy relaxing on the cute back porch overlooking the yard, perfect for morning coffee or summer evenings. Whether you’re looking for your first home, downsizing, or adding to your investment portfolio, this one checks all the boxes. Conveniently located near local shops, restaurants,

Key facts

• Near restaurants
• Near local shops
• Back porch

Tags

• MAIN FLOOR BONUS ROOM
• BACK PORCH
• NEAR LOCAL SHOPS
• NEAR RESTAURANTS
• NEAR PARKS
• MINUTES FROM LAKE ERIE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported (tax year 2025)

Exterior

• Parking: Shared driveway
• Utilities: Public water service; Public sewer service
• Home design: 2-story home; Vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Construction: Built (year per public records); Vinyl siding construction; Asphalt/Fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Public water; Public sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedrooms included within room count)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($998 rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.6% in Conneaut — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#808 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety D.
• Conneaut Area City (town): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #527 of 656 in OH (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.88%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,260
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
470 Mill St	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,092 (-3%)	14mo	$105,000	$96	71
425 Beaver	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,124 (0%)	16mo	$20,000	$18	69
530 Shackson St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-0%)	12mo	$129,000	$115	68
474 Sherman St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,116 (-1%)	3mo	$144,000	$129	65
395 Buffalo St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,159 (+3%)	12mo	$89,900	$78	65
535 Blair St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,210 (+8%)	9mo	$85,000	$70	64
179 Hayward Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,182 (+5%)	7mo	$80,000	$68	63
703 Sandusky St	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,070 (-5%)	8mo	$240,000	$224	63
733 Lake Erie St	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,132 (+1%)	9mo	$175,000	$155	56
659 White St	0.68mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,107 (-2%)	9mo	$170,000	$154	51
859 Sandusky St	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,014 (-10%)	6mo	$155,000	$153	51
159 14th St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,245 (+11%)	17mo	$142,000	$114	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $4,706
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $26,801
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44030

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $709/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $647

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $709 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $978 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$269/yr (+$22/mo · 37.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$709
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$958
• − Management: −$958
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,155
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$517
• After-tax cash flow: $2,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conneaut Area City
• NCES district ID: 3904381
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,064
• Composite: 35.37/100
• National rank: #4953
• State rank: #527 of 656 in OH

Livability — Conneaut

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #808
• US rank: #14907

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conneaut, OH
• County: Ashtabula · 97,617 people
• City population: 16,317
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 16,317
• Household income: $57,264
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 11.2

Population outlook (Ashtabula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,950 people
• By 2030: 89,146 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 80,715 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 72,270 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 55,780 · -40.0%
• By 2100: 40,928 · -56.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashtabula

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.9pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.21%
• Current HPI: 265.5019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-08 Listed $79,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $709 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.