12203 Blue Wing Dr · Carrollton, VA 23314

$38,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Other · 37 Days on market

Built 1989 Good condition ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Mobile home for sale!???? Jones Creek Landing Mobile home park 2bedrooms 1 bath - Huge yard - new roof - new windows -new siding - plumbing done 6 months ago -new cabinets -Has 2 car driveway with 1-2 car parking spaces on street. -good size shed with 2 lawnmowers included -All appliances will be included - laundry unit set still new 8 months old -built in 1989, 980sqft Lot rent each month will Be 675$ Asking 48,000$ or best offer FOR SALE ONLY???? No investors, No agents, No renting, No financing.

Key facts

• Huge yard
• Plumbing done
• New siding

Tags

• HUGE YARD
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW SIDING
• PLUMBING DONE
• NEW CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $38k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 44.0% vs local median 3.4% in Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#201 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Isle Of Wight County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #28 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 257 units permitted in Isle of Wight County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $263 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Isle of Wight County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $36,860 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 134.58%
• DSCR: 6.99
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.57×
• Total profit: $69,870
• Equity at exit: $5,666

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.93×
• Total profit: $158,816
• Equity at exit: $3,286

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23314

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $1,193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $332

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $38,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $38,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $38,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $38,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $38,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $38,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $38,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $38,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $38,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $38,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $38,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-13
    price $38,000 522-char remark
13. 2026-05-12
    listed $48,000 Active 522-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,769
• − Management: −$1,769
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $14,582
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,500
• After-tax cash flow: $10,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with recent renovations, including a new roof, siding, and cabinets. It's move-in ready with a good yard and shed, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace landscaping — Fresh landscaping improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances home's appeal and could increase rental price

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace landscaping — Fresh landscaping improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances home's appeal and could increase rental price ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Isle Of Wight County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102010
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,756
• Composite: 58.67/100
• National rank: #982
• State rank: #28 of 131 in VA

Livability — Carrollton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #201
• US rank: #6196

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Isle of Wight County · 10,099 people
• City population: 10,099
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,099
• Household income: $104,029
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 323.0

Population outlook (Isle of Wight County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,005 people
• By 2030: 40,089 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 41,703 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 42,745 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 47,222 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 47,810 · +22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 21% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Isle of Wight

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.6% · R 59.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.21%
• Current HPI: 267.9382
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $38,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $48,000 FSBO.com