415 Redbud St · Waldron, AR 72958

$39,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1960 0.71 ac lot $25/sqft · 70% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom / 2 bathroom Fixer Upper on a large flat lot with a couple of large shade trees. Home has a metal roof, and vinyl siding. Interior is in need of cleaning and work. Some soft areas in the flooring. Home is half crawl space and half slab. Kitchen cabinets are newer oak. Home could be setup as two separate living spaces. This one has potential. Unknown whether heating/cooling is gas or electric. Being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 0.71 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#42 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Waldron School District (rural): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #160 of 238 in AR (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($270 loan paydown + $967 appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Scott County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.25%
• DSCR: 4.13
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,422
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: -70.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1102 Mcentire St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,551 (-2%)	12mo	$199,000	$128	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.06×
• Total profit: $44,369
• Equity at exit: $16,406

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.37×
• Total profit: $102,267
• Equity at exit: $24,438

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72958

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $341

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-24
   price $39,000 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   3 bedroom / 2 bathroom Fixer Upper on a large flat lot with a couple of large shade trees. Home has a metal roof, and vinyl siding. Interior is in need of cleaning and work. Some soft areas in the flooring. Home is half crawl space and half slab. Kitchen cabinets are newer oak. Home could be setup as two separate living spaces. This one has potential. Unknown whether heating/cooling is gas or electric. Being sold as-is.

2. 2026-03-13
   price $44,000 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   3 bedroom / 2 bathroom Fixer Upper on a large flat lot with a couple of large shade trees. Home has a metal roof, and vinyl siding. Interior is in need of cleaning and work. Some soft areas in the flooring. Home is half crawl space and half slab. Kitchen cabinets are newer oak. Home could be setup as two separate living spaces. This one has potential. Unknown whether heating/cooling is gas or electric. Being sold as-is.

3. 2026-02-09
   listed $49,000 New Listing 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   3 bedroom / 2 bathroom Fixer Upper on a large flat lot with a couple of large shade trees. Home has a metal roof, and vinyl siding. Interior is in need of cleaning and work. Some soft areas in the flooring. Home is half crawl space and half slab. Kitchen cabinets are newer oak. Home could be setup as two separate living spaces. This one has potential. Unknown whether heating/cooling is gas or electric. Being sold as-is.

4. 2004-07-12
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $7,497
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,799
• After-tax cash flow: $5,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waldron School District
• NCES district ID: 0513680
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $34,712
• Composite: 24.33/100
• National rank: #7699
• State rank: #160 of 238 in AR

Livability — Waldron

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #7095

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waldron, AR
• Population (ZIP): 6,566

Population outlook (Scott County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,981 people
• By 2030: 8,188 · -8.8%
• By 2040: 6,675 · -25.7%
• By 2050: 5,228 · -41.8%
• By 2075: 2,745 · -69.4%
• By 2100: 1,302 · -85.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Scott

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.5) · D 12.6% · R 86.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -73.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.5 2020: R+69.8 2016: R+62.0 2012: R+47.7 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• Current HPI: 209.0849
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+30.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $39,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $44,000 CARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $49,000 CARMLS
• 2004-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $68 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.