1003 44th Avenue Dr E · Ellenton, FL 34222

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1970 5,227 sqft lot Est $141k · 6% over $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

You're going to love living in Tidevue Estates, a land-owned active 55+ community! Situated on a desirable corner lot, this move-in-ready, turnkey-furnished home offers comfortable Florida living with numerous updates, including a new A/C in 2024 and updated windows throughout. Inside, you'll find laminate flooring throughout the home, ceiling fan/light fixtures in every room, and the convenience of an inside laundry room. The galley kitchen opens seamlessly to the dining area, creating a functional space for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious living room flows into the Florida room, featuring laminate flooring, a window A/C unit, and direct access to the outdoors—perfect

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Galley kitchen
• Updated windows

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEW A/C
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM
• GALLEY KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey / furnished; Total building area ~1887 sq ft (public records); living area from public records noted; Unit listed as double wide mobile home
• Financial info: Lease restrictions in effect
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly $50 / annual $600) — Sharon/Trista association; approval required; Association amenities: pool, fitness center, laundry, park, recreation facilities, pickleball courts, shuffleboard court; Senior community; Pets not allowed; Deed restrictions; buyer approval required; street lights; golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); Multi/split levels; Faces northeast
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on 0 to less than 1/4 acre (approx. 0.12 acres)
• Exterior features: Awnings; Private mailbox; Corner lot; Asphalt road (public maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window treatments (drapes)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $934 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,515/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 313% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $150k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.72%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,312
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1206 45th Avenue Dr E	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-4%)	2mo	$135,000	$128	81
4207 13th St E	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-4%)	3mo	$123,000	$116	78
4214 15th St E	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+4%)	1mo	$220,000	$191	76
1210 44th Avenue Dr E	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-9%)	2mo	$130,000	$129	75
4508 14th St E	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-4%)	3mo	$110,000	$104	74
1208 45th Avenue Dr E	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-9%)	5mo	$65,000	$64	71
4314 12th Street Ct E	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (+8%)	2mo	$105,000	$88	70
1005 45th Ave E	0.04mi	2/2.0	960 (-13%)	4mo	$100,000	$104	69
4547 12th Street Ct E	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,176 (+6%)	6mo	$61,000	$52	67
4212 13th St E	0.16mi	2/2.0	960 (-13%)	2mo	$175,000	$182	65
1432 41st Ave E	0.34mi	2/1.5	1,000 (-9%)	3mo	$189,000	$189	64
1224 41st Avenue Dr E	0.25mi	2/2.0	963 (-13%)	4mo	$125,000	$130	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $35,272
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $107,543
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,515 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,845/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $934

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,332

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,019	-5% $977	+0% $934	+5% $892	+10% $850
Rent	-10% $736	-5% $835	+0% $934	+5% $1,034	+10% $1,133
Rate	-1.0pp $1,010	-0.5pp $973	base $934	+0.5pp $896	+1.0pp $856

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4612 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1210	$3,000	$2.48	25d	1	0.23mi
4711 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1350	$2,100	$1.56	25d	1	0.28mi
4403 7th St E #4 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$2,700	$2.50	25d	1	0.35mi
5021 US Highway 301 N Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.5	861	$3,900	$4.53	4d	1	0.42mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	4d	15	0.54mi
1651 36th Ave E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,397	$1.74	4d	13	0.75mi
850 Tidewater Shores Loop #402 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1151	$2,650	$2.30	25d	1	1.12mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	3d	67	1.23mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,234	$1.94	4d	37	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,845
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,414
• − Management: −$2,414
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $9,398
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,255
• After-tax cash flow: $8,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+202.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 1991-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,845 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.