300 Robins Dr · Roswell, NM 88203

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1970 6,448 sqft lot ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home with investment potential. Has large living room. Plenty of dining space with Eat-In Kitchen and Formal Dining. Includes covered patio and 2 storage buildings. 3rd storage on west side of back yard excluded. Seller not real savvy with email. Please allow plenty of time to respond to an offer.

Key facts

• Formal dining
• Large living room
• Covered patio

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• DINING SPACE
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING
• COVERED PATIO
• STORAGE BUILDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#8 in NM, #4,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Roswell Independent Schools (town): math 11% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 29 in NM (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 88 units permitted in Chaves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,635/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 995% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,550 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.24%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $23,904
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $73,442
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88203

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $654/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $821

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2703 S Onyx Dr Roswell, NM	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	44d	1	0.92mi
2614 Palomar Pl Roswell, NM	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,400	$1.10	44d	1	0.97mi
1915 S Pennsylvania Ave Roswell, NM	4.0	2.0	1757	$1,800	$1.02	44d	1	1.34mi
1049 W Poe St Roswell, NM	2.0	1.5	1413	$1,200	$0.85	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Great starter home with investment potential. Has large living room. Plenty of dining space with Eat-In Kitchen and Formal Dining. Includes covered patio and 2 storage buildings. 3rd storage on west side of back yard excluded. Seller not real savvy with email. Please allow plenty of time to respond to an offer.

2. 2026-04-17
   price $105,000 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Great starter home with investment potential. Has large living room. Plenty of dining space with Eat-In Kitchen and Formal Dining. Includes covered patio and 2 storage buildings. 3rd storage on west side of back yard excluded. Seller not real savvy with email. Please allow plenty of time to respond to an offer.

3. 2026-02-25
   price $115,000 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Great starter home with investment potential. Has large living room. Plenty of dining space with Eat-In Kitchen and Formal Dining. Includes covered patio and 2 storage buildings. 3rd storage on west side of back yard excluded. Seller not real savvy with email. Please allow plenty of time to respond to an offer.

4. 2026-02-10
   price $125,000 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Great starter home with investment potential. Has large living room. Plenty of dining space with Eat-In Kitchen and Formal Dining. Includes covered patio and 2 storage buildings. 3rd storage on west side of back yard excluded. Seller not real savvy with email. Please allow plenty of time to respond to an offer.

5. 2026-01-13
   listed $130,000 Active 312-char remark

   Show marketing remark (312 chars)

   Great starter home with investment potential. Has large living room. Plenty of dining space with Eat-In Kitchen and Formal Dining. Includes covered patio and 2 storage buildings. 3rd storage on west side of back yard excluded. Seller not real savvy with email. Please allow plenty of time to respond to an offer.

6. 2007-03-16
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $654 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $840 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: +$186/yr (+$16/mo · 28.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$654
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $6,366
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,528
• After-tax cash flow: $6,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roswell Independent Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502250
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 23.00%
• Median HH income: $38,848
• Composite: 26.21/100
• National rank: #7262
• State rank: #16 of 29 in NM

Livability — Roswell

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #4339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roswell, NM
• County: Chaves County · 56,277 people
• City population: 56,277
• Metro: Roswell, NM
• Population (ZIP): 28,753
• Household income: $42,207
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 995.0

Population outlook (Chaves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,122 people
• By 2030: 66,351 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 66,818 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 66,928 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 65,474 · -1.0%
• By 2100: 58,943 · -10.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 65% White 31% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 38%

Political lean MEDSL · Chaves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.8) · D 26.8% · R 71.6% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -44.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.8 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+32.4 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.30%
• Current HPI: 151.1401
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Roswell, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-19.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $105,000 NMMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $115,000 NMMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $125,000 NMMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $130,000 NMMLS
• 2007-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $654 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.