221 Faith Ln · Tioga, TX 76271

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,677 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 0.33 ac lot $188/sqft · 21% below area Est $384k · 18% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BUILDER IS OFFERING 4% INTEREST, SPECIAL PROVISIONS APPLY. Welcome to this charming, single-story Craftsman home, nestled in the heart of Tioga with easy access to Tioga schools. Inside, you'll find an open and airy floor plan, perfect for today’s lifestyle. The primary suite is a tranquil retreat, featuring an ensuite bathroom with dual sinks, a walk-in shower, linen storage, and a spacious walk-in closet. Any chef will love the kitchen, complete with a central island, sleek granite countertops, and a walk-in pantry. A dedicated utility room adds extra convenience. The cozy living room invites relaxation and is ideal for gatherings. Additional features include a 2-car garage, a covered rear patio, energy-efficient windows and appliances, and a beautifully landscaped yard with a sprinkler system and rain gutters. This home is truly a blend of comfort, style, and a fantastic location—an exceptional opportunity!

Key facts

• Central island
• Walk-in closet
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY CRAFTSMAN HOME
• OPEN AND AIRY FLOOR PLAN
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-332 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.2% in Tioga — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#656 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Tioga ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #226 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $256,402 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,363
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -18.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
713 Arapaho Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,667 (-1%)	2mo	$275,000	$165	88
615 N Lamar St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+4%)	3mo	$400,000	$230	86
603 Mohawk Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-0%)	7mo	$445,000	$266	76
714 Mohawk Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+2%)	8mo	$439,900	$257	75
504 N Texas St	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,661 (-1%)	1mo	$525,000	$316	69
1207 Mary Ann Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,762 (+5%)	2mo	$349,000	$198	67
404 N Florence St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-8%)	0mo	$342,500	$223	66
304 Bradley St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+7%)	1mo	$390,000	$218	63
1008 N Main St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-4%)	8mo	$349,900	$218	53
402 E Main St	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,529 (-9%)	1mo	$299,999	$196	52
1206 Cutler St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,885 (+12%)	6mo	$345,000	$183	47
401 Cutler St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,476 (-12%)	9mo	$229,000	$155	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $98,242
• Equity at exit: $228,025

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $301,154
• Equity at exit: $442,266

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76271

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$682 /mo · $8,179/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,120

Max offer price $256,402

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
618 Kyle Dr Tioga, TX	4.0	2.0	1741	$2,700	$1.55	43d	1	0.18mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-02-04
   listed $315,000 Active 935-char remark

   Show marketing remark (935 chars)

   BUILDER IS OFFERING 4% INTEREST, SPECIAL PROVISIONS APPLY. Welcome to this charming, single-story Craftsman home, nestled in the heart of Tioga with easy access to Tioga schools. Inside, you'll find an open and airy floor plan, perfect for today’s lifestyle. The primary suite is a tranquil retreat, featuring an ensuite bathroom with dual sinks, a walk-in shower, linen storage, and a spacious walk-in closet. Any chef will love the kitchen, complete with a central island, sleek granite countertops, and a walk-in pantry. A dedicated utility room adds extra convenience. The cozy living room invites relaxation and is ideal for gatherings. Additional features include a 2-car garage, a covered rear patio, energy-efficient windows and appliances, and a beautifully landscaped yard with a sprinkler system and rain gutters. This home is truly a blend of comfort, style, and a fantastic location—an exceptional opportunity!

2. 2026-01-02
   historical
3. 2025-02-14
   price $338,000
4. 2024-10-25
   listed $358,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,179 · $682/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,179 · $682/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$8,179
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$9,346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,243
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming Craftsman home in Tioga is in good condition with a good ROI potential for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home look newer
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home look newer ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tioga ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842870
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,096
• Composite: 40.38/100
• National rank: #3735
• State rank: #226 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tioga

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #656
• US rank: #12339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tioga, TX
• City population: 1,864
• Population (ZIP): 1,864

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.47%
• Current HPI: 297.1567
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Listed $315,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $338,000 NTREIS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $358,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+295.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,179 · +295.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.