2521 Jefferson Ave · Texarkana, AR 71854

$99,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 366 Days on market

Built 1985 6,969 sqft lot $80/sqft · 24% below area Est $130k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity! Three bedroom, 2 1/2 bath, all bedrooms upstairs.

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.5% in Texarkana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#177 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Texarkana School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #181 of 238 in AR (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 21 units permitted in Miller County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miller County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $99k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.54%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,774
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -23.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2122 Locust St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,232 (0%)	2mo	$102,200	$83	74
914 E 33rd St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-3%)	3mo	$92,350	$77	69
3502 Minden Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,242 (+1%)	1mo	$105,000	$85	61
7 N Hermitage Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,110 (-10%)	4mo	$93,500	$84	57
11 N Hermitage Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,377 (+12%)	6mo	$168,000	$122	53
2818 Beech St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (-7%)	3mo	$142,400	$124	52
3501 Central St	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,350 (+10%)	1mo	$135,000	$100	51
1902 Hickory Street St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+11%)	15mo	$170,000	$124	42
3303 Rice St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,328 (+8%)	24mo	$125,000	$94	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $6,808
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $35,328
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71854

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,263 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $943/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $809

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $415	-5% $387	+0% $359	+5% $331	+10% $303
Rent	-10% $259	-5% $309	+0% $359	+5% $409	+10% $459
Rate	-1.0pp $409	-0.5pp $384	base $359	+0.5pp $333	+1.0pp $307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2400 Brookridge Dr Texarkana, AR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,095	$1.09	44d	3	0.51mi
2101 Pecan St Texarkana, AR	3.0	1.0	1453	$1,125	$0.77	44d	1	0.51mi
1400 E 35th St Unit PS6-052 Texarkana, AR	2.0	2.0	1025	$899	$0.88	44d	1	0.65mi
1400 E 35th St Unit PS2-013 Texarkana, AR	2.0	1.0	980	$859	$0.88	44d	1	0.65mi
1400 E 35th St Unit PS16-142 Texarkana, AR	2.0	1.0	980	$809	$0.83	44d	1	0.65mi
3801 Magnolia St Unit MG01 Texarkana, TX	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,000	$0.83	44d	1	0.97mi
2301 Arkansas Blvd Texarkana, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	969	$1,245	$1.28	44d	35	1.25mi
722 W 34th St Texarkana, TX	2.0	1.0	1298	$1,300	$1.00	44d	1	1.26mi
4101 Olive St Texarkana, TX	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	44d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,000 Active 366 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 365 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 364 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 363 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 362 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 360 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 359 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 357 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 356 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 355 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 354 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 351 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 350 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 349 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 348 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 347 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 346 DOM
18. 2025-06-18
    listed $99,000 Active 79-char remark

    Show marketing remark (79 chars)

    Great investment opportunity! Three bedroom, 2 1/2 bath, all bedrooms upstairs.

19. 2006-10-04
    soldstatus $55,000
20. 2002-10-28
    soldstatus $43,000
21. 1995-10-03
    soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $943 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $943 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$943
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,213
• − Management: −$1,213
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,869
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$689
• After-tax cash flow: $3,618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Texarkana School District
• NCES district ID: 0513110
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,320
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8332
• State rank: #181 of 238 in AR

Livability — Texarkana

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #177
• US rank: #14514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texarkana, AR
• County: Miller County · 35,720 people
• City population: 35,720
• Metro: Texarkana, TX-AR
• Population (ZIP): 35,720
• Household income: $46,878
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1388.0

Population outlook (Miller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,197 people
• By 2030: 43,844 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 42,680 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 41,024 · -7.2%
• By 2075: 35,685 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 28,325 · -35.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Miller

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.1) · D 23.9% · R 74.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -51.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.1 2020: R+46.4 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+39.8 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.00%
• Current HPI: 196.7615
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Texarkana, TX-AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+130.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-18 Listed $99,000 TBOR
• 2006-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 1995-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $943 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.