13051 Ritz Carlton Highlands · Tahoe Vista, CA 96161

$99,999

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,516 sqft · Condo public records · 878 Days on market

Built 2000

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ritz Carlton 1/12 deed fractional ownership of 3 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms in Lake Tahoe, Northstar resort. 2 prime summer weeks + 1 floating week. You can exchange the weeks to different weeks or exchange to 4 other Ritz Carlton clubs such as San Francisco, St. Thomas, Vail or Aspen. Please note, there is a yearly due around $28,000.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2000

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $854 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 1.8% in Tahoe Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,011 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($132k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 878 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 878 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.60%
• DSCR: 2.63
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $55,535
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.95×
• Total profit: $194,602
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96161

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,312 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$1,861
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$905
• Net cashflow: $854

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,230

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $923	-5% $889	+0% $854	+5% $820	+10% $785
Rent	-10% $513	-5% $684	+0% $854	+5% $1,024	+10% $1,195
Rate	-1.0pp $904	-0.5pp $879	base $854	+0.5pp $828	+1.0pp $802

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,999 Active 878 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,999 Active 877 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,999 Active 876 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,999 Active 875 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,999 Active 873 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,999 Active 870 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,999 Active 869 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,999 Active 868 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,999 Active 867 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,999 Active 864 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,999 Active 863 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,999 Active 862 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,999 Active 861 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,999 Active 860 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,999 Active 859 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    soldstatus $1,800,000
17. 2024-05-21
    price $99,999 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Ritz Carlton 1/12 deed fractional ownership of 3 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms in Lake Tahoe, Northstar resort. 2 prime summer weeks + 1 floating week. You can exchange the weeks to different weeks or exchange to 4 other Ritz Carlton clubs such as San Francisco, St. Thomas, Vail or Aspen. Please note, there is a yearly due around $28,000.

18. 2024-01-22
    listed $125,000 Active 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Ritz Carlton 1/12 deed fractional ownership of 3 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms in Lake Tahoe, Northstar resort. 2 prime summer weeks + 1 floating week. You can exchange the weeks to different weeks or exchange to 4 other Ritz Carlton clubs such as San Francisco, St. Thomas, Vail or Aspen. Please note, there is a yearly due around $28,000.

19. 2024-01-22
    listed $99,999 Active 337-char remark

    Show marketing remark (337 chars)

    Ritz Carlton 1/12 deed fractional ownership of 3 bedrooms and 3.5 bathrooms in Lake Tahoe, Northstar resort. 2 prime summer weeks + 1 floating week. You can exchange the weeks to different weeks or exchange to 4 other Ritz Carlton clubs such as San Francisco, St. Thomas, Vail or Aspen. Please note, there is a yearly due around $28,000.

20. 2014-10-15
    historical
21. 2013-11-22
    soldstatus $1,175,000
22. 2013-01-10
    soldstatus $945,000 Closed
23. 2012-12-22
    status Pending
24. 2012-06-01
    listed $995,000 Active
25. 2012-04-28
    listed $1,415,000
26. 2012-04-28
    listed $945,000
27. 2012-03-27
    listed $2,149,000
28. 2011-10-27
    soldstatus $13,500,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥82°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,739
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,139
• − Management: −$4,139
• − HOA: −$22,332
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $10,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,548
• After-tax cash flow: $7,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoe-Truckee Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,136
• Composite: 44.38/100
• National rank: #2816
• State rank: #136 of 517 in CA

Livability — Tahoe Vista

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1011
• US rank: #24918

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• City population: 462
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,634
• Household income: $131,702
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.87%
• Current HPI: 336.9632
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-86.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,800,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-21 Price Changed $99,999 MLSListings
• 2024-01-22 Listed $125,000 MLSListings
• 2024-01-22 Listed $99,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-10-15 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2013-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $1,175,000 Public Records
• 2013-01-10 Sold (MLS) $945,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2012-12-22 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2012-06-01 Listed $995,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2012-04-28 Listed $945,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2012-04-28 Listed $1,415,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2012-03-27 Listed $2,149,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2011-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $13,500,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $22,922 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.