19 Groveland Ave · East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,788,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,617 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1996 0.92 ac lot $42/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedrooom 3 Bath Expanded Ranch In Pinesfield With Beach Rights And South Of The Hwy..2 Fireplaces. Inground Pool With Master Suite And Family Room Access...A Must See!!!!, Additional information: Separate Hotwater Heater:Elec

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• Garage
• Pool

Tags

• GUNITE IN GROUND POOL
• COUNTRY CLUB BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Annual association fee of $500; Association amenities include playground and other community features

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Driveway; Oversized parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Phone available and connected; Trash collection (private); Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated / remodeled
• Construction: Cedar, frame and shake siding construction
• Exterior features: Private pool; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate; Wood
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Marble counters; Open floor plan; Dining area
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15k ($181k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($33k rent vs $1.79M).
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 10.6% in East Quogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $54k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $501k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $630k; list at $1.79M implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,788,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.14%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,162,623
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Whiting Rd	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,538 (-5%)	2mo	$775,000	$504	67
30 Bonita Rd	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-1%)	9mo	$1,150,000	$719	66
6 Sanderling Ln	0.28mi	3/3.0	1,462 (-10%)	9mo	$1,375,000	$940	63
30 Tarpon Rd	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+6%)	6mo	$1,495,000	$871	60
20 Sandpiper Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,682 (+4%)	23mo	$1,100,000	$654	56
13 Marlin Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,758 (+9%)	16mo	$1,270,000	$722	55
8 Foxboro Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-8%)	4mo	$951,000	$636	48
4 Beechnut Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+11%)	10mo	$1,160,000	$644	44
17 Marlin Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,850 (+14%)	18mo	$1,390,850	$752	42
14 Fairview Rd	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,763 (+9%)	6mo	$885,000	$502	41
16 Squires Ave	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,840 (+14%)	5mo	$1,060,000	$576	40
44 Head Of Lots Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,811 (+12%)	21mo	$1,479,000	$817	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $670,126
• Equity at exit: $266,597

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $1,818,481
• Equity at exit: $154,594

Cash invested: $500,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $32,941 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,376
• Tax from tax record: −$783 /mo · $9,400/yr
• Insurance: −$745
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,918
• Net cashflow: $15,076

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,857

Max offer price $1,788,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16,089	-5% $15,583	+0% $15,076	+5% $14,570	+10% $14,064
Rent	-10% $12,474	-5% $13,775	+0% $15,076	+5% $16,378	+10% $17,679
Rate	-1.0pp $15,977	-0.5pp $15,531	base $15,076	+0.5pp $14,613	+1.0pp $14,142

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $447,000
• Closing costs: $53,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13 Beachland Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2028	$38,000	$18.74	22d	1	0.09mi
20 Marlin Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$10,000	$5.00	44d	1	0.30mi
10 Skyes Neck Ct East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2249	$80,000	$35.57	25d	1	0.70mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	18d	1	0.83mi
15 Birchwood Ln East Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1635	$5,000	$3.06	44d	1	0.87mi
4 Bennett Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2144	$11,000	$5.13	6d	1	0.99mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	0d	1	1.04mi
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	44d	1	1.20mi
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1260	$38,500	$30.56	25d	1	1.28mi
22 W End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1368	$16,000	$11.70	6d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,788,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 427-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $1,788,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,400 · $783/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,809 · $1,651/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,409/yr (+$867/mo · 110.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $395,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,156
• − Property taxes: −$9,400
• − Insurance: −$8,940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$31,623
• − Management: −$31,623
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$52,015
• Taxable income: $161,029
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$38,647
• After-tax cash flow: $142,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+164.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $1,788,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $630,000 Public Records
• 2012-04-17 Sold (MLS) $630,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-02 Listed $675,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $9,400 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.