45 Hillside Dr · Williamsville, NY 14221

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,335 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1950 9,900 sqft lot Est $283k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 45 Hillside Drive in Williamsville, NY—a solid brick ranch offering comfort, convenience, and great potential. This home features 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath, all on one level for easy living. The bright and inviting living space is perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Recent updates include newer replacement windows, adding energy efficiency and peace of mind. Additional features include a full basement with an existing wet bar, offering great potential for a spacious family or recreation room. With some moisture control improvements, the basement would provide excellent additional living space and become an ideal area for entertaining or relaxing. The home is

Key facts

• Full basement
• Forced air furnace
• Existing wet bar

Tags

• SOLID BRICK RANCH
• NEWER REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• FULL BASEMENT
• EXISTING WET BAR
• MOISTURE CONTROL IMPROVEMENTS
• FORCED AIR FURNACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story house; Brick construction; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Brick exterior; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 60 x 165)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Full, partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (9.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Williamsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#44 in NY, #693 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $180,311 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,020
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 N Forest Rd	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,392 (+4%)	6mo	$200,000	$144	70
170 Glen Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,198 (-10%)	6mo	$205,000	$171	67
66 Evans St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,375 (+3%)	3mo	$238,000	$173	60
58 Linwood Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,332 (-0%)	11mo	$290,000	$218	60
83 S Union Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,413 (+6%)	7mo	$300,000	$212	59
86 Pasadena Pl	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,374 (+3%)	10mo	$331,000	$241	59
144 Lafayette Blvd	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,358 (+2%)	8mo	$315,000	$232	56
230 N Harvest St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-2%)	9mo	$305,000	$234	54
31 N Ellicott St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,181 (-12%)	4mo	$180,000	$152	43
78 Evans St	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,218 (-9%)	3mo	$294,175	$242	42
158 Mill St	0.48mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,521 (+14%)	10mo	$320,500	$211	41
124 Evans St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,455 (+9%)	7mo	$260,000	$179	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,574
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-19,975
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 343
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,025 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$579 /mo · $6,947/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,159

Max offer price $180,311

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7	-5% $-49	+0% $-106	+5% $-162	+10% $-218
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-186	+0% $-106	+5% $-26	+10% $54
Rate	-1.0pp $-6	-0.5pp $-55	base $-106	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
61 Park Club Ln Unit C Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	5d	1	0.44mi
5712 Main St #220 Williamsville, NY	2.0	2.0	1015	$2,400	$2.36	46d	1	0.64mi
202 S Union Rd Unit 8 Amherst, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	26d	1	0.67mi
202 S Union Rd Unit 8 Amherst, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	5d	1	0.67mi
307 S Cayuga Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,500	$1.49	46d	1	0.81mi
255 Evans St Williamsville, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,350	$2.41	0d	12	0.83mi
5877 Main St Williamsville, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$2,650	$2.43	0d	1	0.95mi
239 Lehn Springs Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1700	$3,200	$1.88	5d	1	1.05mi
142 Ellen Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1612	$1,800	$1.12	46d	1	1.12mi
1035 Beach Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	46d	1	1.16mi
22 Matthew Ln Unit Left Cheektowaga, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	46d	1	1.26mi
455-495 Wehrle Dr Cheektowaga, NY	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,450	$1.43	0d	1	1.30mi
49 S Youngs Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,795	$1.28	26d	1	1.42mi
32 Bernhardt Dr #10 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1634	$2,200	$1.35	46d	1	1.45mi
1328 Cleveland Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1020	$2,200	$2.16	0d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,947 · $579/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,947 · $579/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$6,947
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,468
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,072
• After-tax cash flow: $-197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — Williamsville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #693

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Williamsville, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,255
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $199,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,947 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.