40 Scrimshaw Dr · North Sea, NY 11968

$1,875,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,642 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 240 Days on market

Built 1979 0.78 ac lot Est $1655k · 13% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in a highly sought-after beach community on the Peconic Bay, this lovely, bright, and cheerful home features three bedrooms, two and a half baths, an open kitchen with a dining area, and a two-story living room. Additionally, there is a loft that is well-suited for an office, library/lounge, or space for extra overnight guests. The primary suite on the main floor includes a recently updated bath. The outdoor area is designed for entertaining. An expansive two-level deck surrounds the 18 x 40 heated pool; mature landscaping adds privacy. Other extras include new kitchen appliances, a garage, a generator, and an outdoor hot and cold shower. This home provides enormous potential for in

Key facts

• Outdoor area
• Mature landscaping
• Two level deck

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• TWO STORY LIVING ROOM
• OUTDOOR AREA
• TWO LEVEL DECK
• HEATED POOL
• MATURE LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.88M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($47k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.88M).
• Recommended offer: $1.65M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 6.5% in North Sea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,063 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $18,842/mo this rent would consume 145% of the median local household income ($156k/yr) (locally 274% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $56k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $525k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.65M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,650,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.03%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,655,136
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40 Scrimshaw Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,642 (0%)	1mo	$1,655,000	$1,008	98
34 Scrimshaw Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+0%)	13mo	$1,395,000	$846	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $46,402
• Equity at exit: $279,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $813,725
• Equity at exit: $162,116

Cash invested: $525,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11968

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 14.6%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,842 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,833
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,852/yr
• Insurance: −$781
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,957
• Net cashflow: $3,951

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,842

Max offer price $1,875,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,012	-5% $4,481	+0% $3,951	+5% $1,280	+10% $632
Rent	-10% $2,462	-5% $3,206	+0% $3,951	+5% $4,695	+10% $5,439
Rate	-1.0pp $4,895	-0.5pp $4,427	base $3,951	+0.5pp $3,465	+1.0pp $2,970

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $468,750
• Closing costs: $56,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2723 Deerfield Rd Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$15,000	$7.50	45d	1	0.65mi
9 Pine Tree Rd Southampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2000	$7,000	$3.50	45d	1	0.76mi
76 Peconic Hills Dr Southampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2060	$38,000	$18.45	25d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-17
   price $1,875,000
3. 2025-10-17
   status Active
4. 2025-05-01
   listed $1,925,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,852 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,770 · $1,481/mo
• Expected delta: +$13,918/yr (+$1,160/mo · 361.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $226,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$105,029
• − Property taxes: −$3,852
• − Insurance: −$9,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,089
• − Management: −$18,089
• − Depreciation: −$54,545
• Taxable income: $17,130
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,111
• After-tax cash flow: $43,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Sea

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1063
• US rank: #21178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Sea, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,312
• Household income: $156,219
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 274.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 9% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -184.86%
• Current HPI: 461.1144
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.62%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $1,875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listed $1,925,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,852 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.