10931 Roberts Rd N · Maple Forest, MI 49733

$219,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 2008 26 ac lot $191/sqft · 18% below area Est $270k · 18% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Cash flow +3.4/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME TO THE MAPLE FOREST LODGE! THIS IS THE PLACE YOU ENVISION WHEN THINKING OF A DREAM COTTAGE. YOU DONT WANT TO MISS OUT ON THE ALL-YEAR-ROUND MOVE-IN READY CABIN. THIS GEM IS A UNIQUE PIECE OF NORTHERN PROPERTY THAT SITS WITHIN 26.5 SHARED ACRES OF PRIME HUNTING LANDS. FEATURES FOR THE MAPLE FOREST ASSOCIATION INCLUED A GUN RANGE, BEACH AND FISHING BOAT LAUNCH ACCESS TO PARTIALLY STATE OWNED BLUE GILL LAKE (5 MINUTE WALKING DIASTANCE), ATV/SNOWMOBILE TRAILS, AND 26.5 ACRES OF HUNTING LANDS. LARGE GARAGE STORAGE FOR ATV, SNOWMOBILE OR BOAT! THIS PLACE PERFECT FOR WEEKENDS WITH FAMILY OR FRIENDS ALL YEAR ROUND THANKS TO NEAR BY GOLFING, FISHING, SKIIING, SNOWBOARDING, SNOWMOBILE, DIRT BIKE, OR BOATING FUN! HOME WAS COMPLETELY REBUILT IN 2008 AND SITS ON A FULL CEMENT FLOOR WITH A 3FT CRAWLSPACE. HOME IS BEING SOLD FULLY FURNISHED. (EXCLUDING MOUNTS AND A FEW PERSONAL ITEMS. ) THIS CABIN IS 1 OF 4 CABINS THAT HAVE OWNERSHIP IN A SHARED NONPROFIT CORPORATION. THE CABIN, GARAGE AND INDIVIDUAL PARCEL ARE FOR SALE. TAXES FOR ALL CABINS AND SHARED LANDS ARE EQUALLY SPLIT AND PAID THROUGH THE ASSOCIATION. COME SEE HOW AMAZING THIS PLACE IS IN PERSON BECAUSE YOU WON'T BE DISAPPOINTED. CASH ONLY SALE. ALL INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR CAMERAS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN SALE.

Key facts

• Snowmobile trails
• Beach access
• Atv trails

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• BEACH ACCESS
• FISHING BOAT LAUNCH
• ATV TRAILS
• SNOWMOBILE TRAILS
• FULLY FURNISHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as residential single family
• Financial info: Annual tax information available

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built with a crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Metal roof; Dirt road access; Lot approximately 26.5 acres (dimensions: 143 x 133 x 141 x 133)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-677 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (44.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (51.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (51.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crawford Ausable Schools (town): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #140 of 540 in MI (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grayling Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #547 of 1,397 statewide, top 41%, 638 students, 66% FRL); Grayling Middle School (math 48% / reading 52%, grade C, #117 of 493 statewide, top 25%, 461 students, 57% FRL); Grayling High School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #80 of 713 statewide, top 12%, 452 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 75 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $106,756 (51.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.19%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 17.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,650
• List price: $219,999
• Delta: -18.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5012 Green Acre Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,314 (+14%)	12mo	$350,000	$266	60
4916 Villas Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (+2%)	4mo	$280,000	$237	59
5188 Green Acre Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,052 (-9%)	12mo	$320,000	$304	55
5238 Green Acre Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-12%)	15mo	$255,000	$253	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $76,715
• Equity at exit: $198,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $259,854
• Equity at exit: $427,410

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49733

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 17.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,068 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-677

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $122,037

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-525	-5% $-601	+0% $-677	+5% $-753	+10% $-829
Rent	-10% $-761	-5% $-719	+0% $-677	+5% $-635	+10% $-593
Rate	-1.0pp $-566	-0.5pp $-621	base $-677	+0.5pp $-734	+1.0pp $-792

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,999 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,999 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,999 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,999 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,999 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,999 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,999 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $219,999 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,999 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,999 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,999 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,999 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,999 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,999 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,999 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,999 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,999 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $229,999 Active 1275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1275 chars)

    WELCOME TO THE MAPLE FOREST LODGE! THIS IS THE PLACE YOU ENVISION WHEN THINKING OF A DREAM COTTAGE. YOU DONT WANT TO MISS OUT ON THE ALL-YEAR-ROUND MOVE-IN READY CABIN. THIS GEM IS A UNIQUE PIECE OF NORTHERN PROPERTY THAT SITS WITHIN 26.5 SHARED ACRES OF PRIME HUNTING LANDS. FEATURES FOR THE MAPLE FOREST ASSOCIATION INCLUED A GUN RANGE, BEACH AND FISHING BOAT LAUNCH ACCESS TO PARTIALLY STATE OWNED BLUE GILL LAKE (5 MINUTE WALKING DIASTANCE), ATV/SNOWMOBILE TRAILS, AND 26.5 ACRES OF HUNTING LANDS. LARGE GARAGE STORAGE FOR ATV, SNOWMOBILE OR BOAT! THIS PLACE PERFECT FOR WEEKENDS WITH FAMILY OR FRIENDS ALL YEAR ROUND THANKS TO NEAR BY GOLFING, FISHING, SKIIING, SNOWBOARDING, SNOWMOBILE, DIRT BIKE, OR BOATING FUN! HOME WAS COMPLETELY REBUILT IN 2008 AND SITS ON A FULL CEMENT FLOOR WITH A 3FT CRAWLSPACE. HOME IS BEING SOLD FULLY FURNISHED. (EXCLUDING MOUNTS AND A FEW PERSONAL ITEMS. ) THIS CABIN IS 1 OF 4 CABINS THAT HAVE OWNERSHIP IN A SHARED NONPROFIT CORPORATION. THE CABIN, GARAGE AND INDIVIDUAL PARCEL ARE FOR SALE. TAXES FOR ALL CABINS AND SHARED LANDS ARE EQUALLY SPLIT AND PAID THROUGH THE ASSOCIATION. COME SEE HOW AMAZING THIS PLACE IS IN PERSON BECAUSE YOU WON'T BE DISAPPOINTED. CASH ONLY SALE. ALL INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR CAMERAS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN SALE.

19. 2026-05-12
    listed $229,999 Active 1275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1275 chars)

    WELCOME TO THE MAPLE FOREST LODGE! THIS IS THE PLACE YOU ENVISION WHEN THINKING OF A DREAM COTTAGE. YOU DONT WANT TO MISS OUT ON THE ALL-YEAR-ROUND MOVE-IN READY CABIN. THIS GEM IS A UNIQUE PIECE OF NORTHERN PROPERTY THAT SITS WITHIN 26.5 SHARED ACRES OF PRIME HUNTING LANDS. FEATURES FOR THE MAPLE FOREST ASSOCIATION INCLUED A GUN RANGE, BEACH AND FISHING BOAT LAUNCH ACCESS TO PARTIALLY STATE OWNED BLUE GILL LAKE (5 MINUTE WALKING DIASTANCE), ATV/SNOWMOBILE TRAILS, AND 26.5 ACRES OF HUNTING LANDS. LARGE GARAGE STORAGE FOR ATV, SNOWMOBILE OR BOAT! THIS PLACE PERFECT FOR WEEKENDS WITH FAMILY OR FRIENDS ALL YEAR ROUND THANKS TO NEAR BY GOLFING, FISHING, SKIIING, SNOWBOARDING, SNOWMOBILE, DIRT BIKE, OR BOATING FUN! HOME WAS COMPLETELY REBUILT IN 2008 AND SITS ON A FULL CEMENT FLOOR WITH A 3FT CRAWLSPACE. HOME IS BEING SOLD FULLY FURNISHED. (EXCLUDING MOUNTS AND A FEW PERSONAL ITEMS. ) THIS CABIN IS 1 OF 4 CABINS THAT HAVE OWNERSHIP IN A SHARED NONPROFIT CORPORATION. THE CABIN, GARAGE AND INDIVIDUAL PARCEL ARE FOR SALE. TAXES FOR ALL CABINS AND SHARED LANDS ARE EQUALLY SPLIT AND PAID THROUGH THE ASSOCIATION. COME SEE HOW AMAZING THIS PLACE IS IN PERSON BECAUSE YOU WON'T BE DISAPPOINTED. CASH ONLY SALE. ALL INTERIOR AND EXTERIOR CAMERAS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN SALE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,025
• − Management: −$1,025
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$12,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,967
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crawford Ausable Schools
• NCES district ID: 2611030
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,396
• Composite: 38.94/100
• National rank: #4086
• State rank: #140 of 540 in MI

Livability — Maple Forest

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,910

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,042 people
• By 2030: 12,520 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 11,292 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 10,157 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 8,338 · -36.1%
• By 2100: 6,765 · -48.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.5% · R 66.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.7pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+32.8 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.47%
• Current HPI: 291.6348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $219,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $219,999 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Listed $229,999 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Listed $229,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS