9810 State Ave #16 · Marysville, WA 98270

$90,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1998 $97/sqft · 31% below area Est $131k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy comfortable, affordable living in this well-kept 1998 manufactured home featuring a spacious layout and a generous yard in a park with no age restrictions. The home offers two large bedrooms, a bright kitchen with a breakfast bar and dedicated eating space, and great natural flow throughout. A storage shed in the backyard provides extra room for tools, hobbies, or seasonal items. Space rent includes water, sewer, and garbage, adding convenience and value. Park approval required.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Generous yard
• Storage shed

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• GENEROUS YARD
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• DEDICATED EATING SPACE
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 3.0% in Marysville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#43 in WA, #768 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Marysville School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #177 of 291 in WA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 430 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $90k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.61%
• DSCR: 3.47
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,530
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -31.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $56,913
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $133,824
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98270

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 430
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,145 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $208/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $1,168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $667

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9114 44th Dr NE #1 Marysville, WA	2.0	1.0	1006	$2,095	$2.08	24d	1	0.47mi
10021 54th Dr NE Marysville, WA	2.0	1.5	922	$1,200	$1.30	4d	1	0.74mi
11508 51st Ave NE Unit C Marysville, WA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,595	$2.36	43d	1	1.08mi
5828 93rd Pl NE Marysville, WA	3.0	1.0	912	$2,000	$2.19	24d	1	1.11mi
4521 80th St NE Marysville, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	881	$2,150	$2.44	4d	3	1.11mi
4602 80th St NE Marysville, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	777	$1,975	$2.54	4d	3	1.22mi
12115 State Ave Marysville, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,106	$2.39	4d	1	1.31mi
4817 76th St NE Marysville, WA	2.0	1.5	995	$1,895	$1.90	43d	1	1.37mi
1345 Beach Ave Unit B Marysville, WA	3.0	2.5	1125	$2,100	$1.87	43d	1	1.38mi
1310 Cedar Ave Marysville, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	778	$2,055	$2.64	43d	7	1.43mi
4000 76th St NE #42 Marysville, WA	2.0	1.0	540	$1,850	$3.43	4d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $90,000 Active
3. 2009-10-19
   soldstatus $15,000 Sold
4. 2009-09-28
   status Pending
5. 2009-09-15
   status Pending Inspection
6. 2009-09-12
   price $17,000
7. 2009-08-24
   listed $19,000 Active
8. 2008-07-10
   soldstatus $21,000
9. 2008-07-01
   historical
10. 2008-06-12
    listed $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $208 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $882 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$674/yr (+$56/mo · 323.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$208
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,059
• − Management: −$2,059
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $13,305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,193
• After-tax cash flow: $10,820/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marysville School District
• NCES district ID: 5304860
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,461
• Composite: 41.31/100
• National rank: #7367
• State rank: #177 of 291 in WA

Livability — Marysville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #768

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marysville, WA
• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• City population: 85,887
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 55,049
• Household income: $108,147
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1150.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 8% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -673.52%
• Current HPI: 321.1535
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.66%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+275.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $90,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-19 Sold (MLS) $15,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-28 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-12 Price Changed $17,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-24 Listed $19,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-10 Sold (MLS) $21,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-01 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-12 Listed $24,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $208 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.