2809 Kirkwood Cir · Valdosta, GA 31602

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1983 7,405 sqft lot Est $130k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Solid 910 sq ft home with major capital improvements already completed new roof, new HVAC, and new water heater. Lower maintenance costs and strong rental potential make this a smart addition to any portfolio. Affordable, efficient, and ready to perform.

Key facts

• New hvac
• New water heater
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• NEW WATER HEATER
• LOWER MAINTENANCE COSTS
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($876/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.3% in Valdosta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Valdosta City (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #149 of 174 in GA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: W.G. Nunn Elementary (math 14% / reading 17%, grade F, #973 of 1,228 statewide, top 80%, 901 students, 93% FRL); Newbern Middle School (math 10% / reading 18%, grade F, #405 of 470 statewide, top 86%, 806 students, 95% FRL); Valdosta High School (math 7% / reading 24%, grade F, #290 of 424 statewide, top 69%, 2,381 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 74% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,258 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.43%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,130
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2809 Kirkwood Cir	0.00mi	2/1.0	910 (0%)	2mo	$129,900	$143	99
2804 Kirkwood Cir	0.06mi	2/1.0	912 (+0%)	11mo	$80,000	$88	88

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-14,975
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,672
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31602

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,093 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $719/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,000

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $110	+0% $73	+5% $37	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-13	-5% $30	+0% $73	+5% $116	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $138	-0.5pp $106	base $73	+0.5pp $40	+1.0pp $6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Crestwood Cir Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.5	1032	$925	$0.90	45d	1	0.05mi
2201 Houston Ave Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,375	$1.26	23d	1	0.20mi
3106 Sundance Cir Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	891	$750	$0.84	45d	1	0.46mi
2709 Pineview Dr Unit A Valdosta, GA	2.0	2.5	1000	$995	$0.99	45d	1	0.69mi
2314 Pineview Dr Apt A Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	940	$900	$0.96	45d	1	0.93mi
2324 Sterling Pl Valdosta, GA	3.0	1.0	1124	$1,095	$0.97	23d	1	1.00mi
1632 Lexington Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,395	$1.26	45d	1	1.02mi
141 Blue Pool Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,200	$1.08	23d	1	1.32mi
1005 Langdale Dr Unit B Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	879	$700	$0.80	23d	1	1.38mi
611 Pineview Dr Valdosta, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1204	$1,300	$1.08	23d	3	1.43mi
1425 E Park Ave Valdosta, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,095	$1.19	23d	2	1.44mi
2305 Bemiss Rd Unit T16 Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.5	896	$850	$0.95	45d	1	1.46mi
522 Heritage Pl Valdosta, GA	2.0	1.0	979	$1,050	$1.07	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   listed $129,000 Active
3. 2026-02-23
   soldstatus $1,755,000
4. 2026-02-19
   historical $975
5. 2026-02-04
   listed $975
6. 2024-05-23
   historical $850
7. 2024-05-11
   listed $850
8. 2024-05-11
   historical $850
9. 2024-05-10
   listed $850
10. 2022-04-22
    soldstatus $240,000
11. 1996-11-20
    soldstatus $36,000
12. 1995-12-14
    soldstatus $35,000
13. 1984-04-26
    soldstatus $42,500
14. 1983-05-09
    soldstatus $7,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $719 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$468/yr (+$39/mo · 65.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$719
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,049
• − Management: −$1,049
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$1,329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$319
• After-tax cash flow: $1,195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valdosta City
• NCES district ID: 1305310
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,634
• Composite: 14.79/100
• National rank: #9388
• State rank: #149 of 174 in GA

Livability — Valdosta

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #19544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valdosta, GA
• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 91,859
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 35,728
• Household income: $56,939
• Rent vs Own: 56.4% rent · 43.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2034.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.60%
• Current HPI: 188.2012
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.19%
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1667.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $129,000 SGMLS
• 2026-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $1,755,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-19 Rental Removed $975 RENTEC
• 2026-02-04 Listed for Rent $975 RENTEC
• 2024-05-23 Rental Removed $850 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-05-11 Listed for Rent $850 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-05-11 Rental Removed $850 RENTEC
• 2024-05-10 Listed for Rent $850 RENTEC
• 2022-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 1996-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 1995-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1984-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records
• 1983-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $7,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $719 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.