222 Liberty Blvd · Machesney Park, IL 61115

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 1971 10,454 sqft lot Est $252k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you’re looking for space, updates, and a convenient location outside of the flood zone, look no further! This Machesney Park ranch sits on a large corner lot with a fenced yard and a finished garage, offering numerous recent updates throughout. The main level features brand-new flooring, trim, and light fixtures, a completely updated bathroom, a bright and refreshed kitchen, some updated plumbing, and a brand-new garage door, with the roof replaced around 2017 for added peace of mind. The finished lower level provides additional living space and includes a true full bathroom, while the fully screened-in deck leads to a spacious fenced backyard overlooking Marquette Elementary, complete with stone pathways and sidewalks leading to the garage. The garage itself is a standout, featuring a wood-burning stove, built-in workspaces, and generous attic access. All of this is conveniently located just minutes from the Rock River, Harlem schools, and easy access to IL-173. Cinch Home Warranty included. Open House Sunday 2/8/26 from 11:00–1:00 & 2:00–4:00.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Large corner lot
• Fenced yard

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• FENCED YARD
• FINISHED GARAGE
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• UPDATED PLUMBING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.8% in Machesney Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, schools F, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,501 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.31%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,288
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8326 Shore Dr	0.47mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,773 (+3%)	7mo	$64,050	$36	61
8325 Ravere St	0.65mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,746 (+1%)	5mo	$255,000	$146	57
5309 Browns Beach Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,769 (+2%)	7mo	$350,000	$198	55
440 Wilshire Dr	0.38mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,666 (-4%)	23mo	$179,000	$107	50
1509 Ferncliff Blvd	0.71mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,663 (-4%)	11mo	$285,000	$171	44
9508 Shore Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,842 (+7%)	18mo	$367,000	$199	43
323 Wilson Ave	0.35mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,979 (+14%)	18mo	$142,500	$72	37
7832 Shore Dr	0.53mi	2/1.5	1,500 (-13%)	18mo	$215,000	$143	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,839
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $10,149
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61115

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,776 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,147/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $326	-5% $281	+0% $236	+5% $190	+10% $145
Rent	-10% $95	-5% $165	+0% $236	+5% $306	+10% $376
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $276	base $236	+0.5pp $194	+1.0pp $152

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1028 Minns Dr Unit 1028-D Machesney Park, IL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,850	$1.51	22d	1	1.18mi
1051 Minns Dr Unit 1051-3 Machesney Park, IL	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,700	$1.41	14d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $159,900 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-03-24
   soldstatus $155,000
3. 2026-02-26
   status Pending 1088-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

   If you’re looking for space, updates, and a convenient location outside of the flood zone, look no further! This Machesney Park ranch sits on a large corner lot with a fenced yard and a finished garage, offering numerous recent updates throughout. The main level features brand-new flooring, trim, and light fixtures, a completely updated bathroom, a bright and refreshed kitchen, some updated plumbing, and a brand-new garage door, with the roof replaced around 2017 for added peace of mind. The finished lower level provides additional living space and includes a true full bathroom, while the fully screened-in deck leads to a spacious fenced backyard overlooking Marquette Elementary, complete with stone pathways and sidewalks leading to the garage. The garage itself is a standout, featuring a wood-burning stove, built-in workspaces, and generous attic access. All of this is conveniently located just minutes from the Rock River, Harlem schools, and easy access to IL-173. Cinch Home Warranty included. Open House Sunday 2/8/26 from 11:00–1:00 & 2:00–4:00.

4. 2026-02-26
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

   If you’re looking for space, updates, and a convenient location outside of the flood zone, look no further! This Machesney Park ranch sits on a large corner lot with a fenced yard and a finished garage, offering numerous recent updates throughout. The main level features brand-new flooring, trim, and light fixtures, a completely updated bathroom, a bright and refreshed kitchen, some updated plumbing, and a brand-new garage door, with the roof replaced around 2017 for added peace of mind. The finished lower level provides additional living space and includes a true full bathroom, while the fully screened-in deck leads to a spacious fenced backyard overlooking Marquette Elementary, complete with stone pathways and sidewalks leading to the garage. The garage itself is a standout, featuring a wood-burning stove, built-in workspaces, and generous attic access. All of this is conveniently located just minutes from the Rock River, Harlem schools, and easy access to IL-173. Cinch Home Warranty included. Open House Sunday 2/8/26 from 11:00–1:00 & 2:00–4:00.

5. 2026-02-18
   status Active
6. 2026-02-04
   listed $159,900 Active 1088-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

   If you’re looking for space, updates, and a convenient location outside of the flood zone, look no further! This Machesney Park ranch sits on a large corner lot with a fenced yard and a finished garage, offering numerous recent updates throughout. The main level features brand-new flooring, trim, and light fixtures, a completely updated bathroom, a bright and refreshed kitchen, some updated plumbing, and a brand-new garage door, with the roof replaced around 2017 for added peace of mind. The finished lower level provides additional living space and includes a true full bathroom, while the fully screened-in deck leads to a spacious fenced backyard overlooking Marquette Elementary, complete with stone pathways and sidewalks leading to the garage. The garage itself is a standout, featuring a wood-burning stove, built-in workspaces, and generous attic access. All of this is conveniently located just minutes from the Rock River, Harlem schools, and easy access to IL-173. Cinch Home Warranty included. Open House Sunday 2/8/26 from 11:00–1:00 & 2:00–4:00.

7. 2026-02-04
   listed $159,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (1088 chars)

   If you’re looking for space, updates, and a convenient location outside of the flood zone, look no further! This Machesney Park ranch sits on a large corner lot with a fenced yard and a finished garage, offering numerous recent updates throughout. The main level features brand-new flooring, trim, and light fixtures, a completely updated bathroom, a bright and refreshed kitchen, some updated plumbing, and a brand-new garage door, with the roof replaced around 2017 for added peace of mind. The finished lower level provides additional living space and includes a true full bathroom, while the fully screened-in deck leads to a spacious fenced backyard overlooking Marquette Elementary, complete with stone pathways and sidewalks leading to the garage. The garage itself is a standout, featuring a wood-burning stove, built-in workspaces, and generous attic access. All of this is conveniently located just minutes from the Rock River, Harlem schools, and easy access to IL-173. Cinch Home Warranty included. Open House Sunday 2/8/26 from 11:00–1:00 & 2:00–4:00.

8. 2024-08-13
   soldstatus $115,000
9. 2024-08-12
   soldstatus $115,000 Closed 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   TWO BEDROOM RANCH, TWO BATH, TWO CAR GARAGE. ROOF 2017 WITH 90+ GAS FORCED AIR FURNACE. BASEMENT PARTIALLY FINISHED. HARLEM SCHOOLS SHED AND ALL APPLIANCES STAY

10. 2024-07-11
    status Pending 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    TWO BEDROOM RANCH, TWO BATH, TWO CAR GARAGE. ROOF 2017 WITH 90+ GAS FORCED AIR FURNACE. BASEMENT PARTIALLY FINISHED. HARLEM SCHOOLS SHED AND ALL APPLIANCES STAY

11. 2024-07-09
    listed $119,000 Active 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    TWO BEDROOM RANCH, TWO BATH, TWO CAR GARAGE. ROOF 2017 WITH 90+ GAS FORCED AIR FURNACE. BASEMENT PARTIALLY FINISHED. HARLEM SCHOOLS SHED AND ALL APPLIANCES STAY

12. 2018-04-03
    soldstatus $84,000
13. 2018-03-30
    soldstatus $84,000
14. 2017-10-10
    listed $89,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,147 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,388 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$241/yr (+$20/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$3,147
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,705
• − Management: −$1,705
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $347
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$83
• After-tax cash flow: $2,744/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Machesney Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #4425

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machesney Park, IL
• City population: 22,424
• Population (ZIP): 22,424

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.28%
• Current HPI: 272.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+73.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-26 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-02-26 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Listed $159,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Listed $159,900 NWIAR
• 2024-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-12 Sold (MLS) $115,000 NWIAR
• 2024-07-11 Pending — NWIAR
• 2024-07-09 Listed $119,000 NWIAR
• 2018-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-30 Sold (MLS) $84,000 NWIAR
• 2017-10-10 Listed $89,500 NWIAR

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,147 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.