🏷️ Likely Rental
9000 N Palafox St #25 · Ensley, FL
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
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- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
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- Est. flood insurance / yr
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Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
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Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
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- Hot days in 30 yrs
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Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
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Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
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- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
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Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +22.5/30.0
- 1% rule +7.5/10.0
- DSCR +7.5/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +3.4/5.0
- Schools +3.1/10.0
- Appreciation +2.5/10.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -5.0
$39,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Very well kept 2018 14x66 3/2 singlewide mobile home. It sits in Palafox Mobile Estates so you can keep it there or move it. But if you keep it there you will have to pay lot rent $500 per month and also be 55+ years of age and get approved with the management office before purchase. Sometimes they are willing to let seniors ages 50 and up get approved if they have good enough credit. Price is $39,900 AS-IS but if you want new LVP flooring owner is willing to have it installed before closing and up the price to $45,000. This is one you can move right into and don't have to do anything. All appliances stay and are newer!
Key facts
- New lvp flooring
- Quiet community
- 4,356 sq ft lot
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $649 ($8k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
- Recommended offer: $38k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 26.3% vs local median 5.1% in Ensley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 79/100 on livability (#133 in FL, #1,996 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D.
- Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Ensley Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,037 of 2,144 statewide, top 96%, 465 students, 67% FRL); Pine Forest High School (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 1,870 students, 62% FRL).
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Escambia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Questions for the listing agent
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.98% ✓
- Cap rate
- 26.25%
- Cash-on-cash
- 71.29%
- DSCR
- 4.17
- GRM
- 2.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $101,597
- List price
- $39,000
- Delta
- -61.61%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 2 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 134 Detroit Blvd | 0.67mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 896 (-0%) | 4mo | $40,000 | $45 | 60 |
| 524 Mapleleaf Cir | 0.81mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 882 (-2%) | 13mo | $47,000 | $53 | 46 |
| 9603 Mapleleaf Ln | 0.86mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 924 (+3%) | 15mo | $77,500 | $84 | 43 |
| 462 Mapleleaf Cir | 0.84mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 840 (-7%) | 13mo | $26,000 | $31 | 34 |
| 681 Lengo St | 1.09mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 728 (-19%) | 10mo | $115,000 | $158 | 23 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.63% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 71.6%
- Equity multiple
- 4.27×
- Total profit
- $35,756
- Equity at exit
- $5,815
- IRR
- 75.7%
- Equity multiple
- 9.01×
- Total profit
- $87,489
- Equity at exit
- $3,372
Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 32534
- Home prices YoY
- -19.1%
- Rents YoY
- 3.6%
- Active inventory
- 152
- Price-to-rent
- 2.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,162 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$205
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$49 /mo · $585/yr
- Insurance
- −$16
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$244
- Net cashflow
- $649
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $676 | -5% $662 | +0% $649 | +5% $635 | +10% $622 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $557 | -5% $603 | +0% $649 | +5% $695 | +10% $741 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $668 | -0.5pp $659 | base $649 | +0.5pp $639 | +1.0pp $628 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $9,750
- Closing costs
- $1,170
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 7 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 130 E 9 Mile Rd #5 Pensacola, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 925 | $1,095 | $1.18 | 72d | 1 | 0.35mi |
| 50 E Ensley St Unit A Pensacola, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 840 | $1,150 | $1.37 | 63d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 415 W Hannah St Unit B Pensacola, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $1,175 | $1.47 | 15d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 8660 Figland Ave Pensacola, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1106 | $1,550 | $1.40 | 63d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 416 Robin Rd Pensacola, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 960 | $1,500 | $1.56 | 15d | 3 | 0.84mi |
| 1106 Fretz St Unit A Pensacola, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1092 | $1,350 | $1.24 | 15d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 1000 Sable Dr Unit a Pensacola, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 962 | $1,350 | $1.40 | 15d | 1 | 1.47mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Lot approximately 0.1 acre (40 x 80)
- HOA & community
- No homeowners associationCommunity is 55+ / senior community
Exterior
- Parking
- 2 spaces per unit
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerCopper wiring with circuit breakers
- Home design
- Mobile/manufactured or modular homeOne storyResale (not new construction)
- Construction
- Shingle roofOff-grade foundation
- Exterior features
- Covered deckYard buildingPaved road accessPublic maintained roadCentral access
Interior
- Kitchen
- RefrigeratorSelf-cleaning ovenENERGY STAR qualified refrigerator and appliancesElectric water heater
- Bedrooms
- Master bedroom on the first level
- Flooring
- VinylLaminate
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central heatingCentral airCeiling fansENERGY STAR qualified equipment
- Interior features
- Double-pane windowsVinyl and laminate flooring
- Laundry & utility
- Electric water heater
Listing history 15 events
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2026-07-06days on market $39,000 Active 17 DOM
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2026-07-05days on market $39,000 Active 16 DOM
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2026-07-04days on market $39,000 Active 15 DOM
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2026-07-03days on market $39,000 Active 14 DOM
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2026-07-02days on market $39,000 Active 13 DOM
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2026-07-01days on market $39,000 Active 12 DOM
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2026-06-30days on market $39,000 Active 11 DOM
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2026-06-29days on market $39,000 Active 10 DOM
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2026-06-28days on market $39,000 Active 9 DOM
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2026-06-28days on market $39,000 Active 8 DOM
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2026-06-27days on market $39,000 Active 7 DOM
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2026-06-25days on market $39,000 Active 5 DOM
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2026-06-23days on market $39,000 Active 3 DOM
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2026-06-21remarks 699-char remark
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2026-06-21$39,000 Active 2 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $13,948
- − Mortgage interest
- −$2,185
- − Property taxes
- −$585
- − Insurance
- −$195
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,116
- − Management
- −$1,116
- − Depreciation
- −$1,135
- Taxable income
- $7,617
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,828
- After-tax cash flow
- $5,956/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
This 2018 singlewide mobile home is in good condition with modern appliances and updated fixtures. It is move-in ready and located in a well-maintained community.
Value-add opportunities
- Both install new LVP flooring — improves appearance and adds value ↑
- Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Escambia
- NCES district ID
- 1200510
- Math proficiency
- 40% ▼ -9.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 45% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $44,649
- Composite
- 36.04/100
- National rank
- #4773
- State rank
- #56 of 73 in FL
Livability — Ensley
- Score
- 79/100
- State rank
- #133
- US rank
- #1996
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Ensley, FL
- County
- Escambia County · 334,637 people
- City population
- 15,879
- Metro
- Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 17,104
- Household income
- $58,992
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 13% of renters
Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 334,637 people
- By 2030
- 345,779 · +3.3%
- By 2040
- 364,828 · +9.0%
- By 2050
- 378,514 · +13.1%
- By 2075
- 403,220 · +20.5%
- By 2100
- 386,125 · +15.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 51% Black 30% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 5%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Serbian 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
- Foreign-born
- 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Escambia
- 2024 margin
- R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -60.23%
- Current HPI
- 255.7617
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 3.63%
- Metro
- Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
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| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Price history
2 events — show timeline
- 2026-07-06 Listing Removed — PARMLS
- 2026-06-19 Listed $39,000 PARMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…