1209 Shirley Rd · Lynchburg, VA 24502

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 742 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1947 7,161 sqft lot $202/sqft · 8% below area Est $163k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this opportunity! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for you to move in. Highlights include fresh paint throughout, new appliances, granite countertops, updated cabinetry, and a modern bathroom with a tile shower. Ideally located close to shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home combines convenience with charm. Perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking for a turnkey property in a great location!

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New appliances
• Updated cabinetry

Tags

• UPDATED CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• MODERN BATHROOM
• TILE SHOWER
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-371/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (23.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Perrymont Elementary (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 337 students, 95% FRL); Paul Laurence Dunbar Middle For Innovation (math 37% / reading 66%, grade C, #222 of 342 statewide, top 65%, 531 students, 95% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 61% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $150k implies a 1774% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,411 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,738
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -7.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
718 Kenbridge Rd	0.09mi	2/1.0	742 (0%)	3mo	$176,696	$238	94
612 Thomas Rd	0.21mi	2/1.0	742 (0%)	2mo	$105,000	$142	89
1117 Stratford Rd	0.15mi	2/1.0	750 (+1%)	13mo	$150,000	$200	80
1200 Brandon Rd	0.04mi	2/1.0	846 (+14%)	6mo	$169,900	$201	70
309 Newberne St	0.55mi	2/1.0	761 (+3%)	12mo	$180,000	$237	60
511 Blue Ridge St	0.67mi	2/1.0	695 (-6%)	2mo	$123,000	$177	57
507 Blue Ridge St	0.68mi	2/1.0	691 (-7%)	2mo	$136,000	$197	56
3508 Joel St	0.60mi	2/1.0	786 (+6%)	8mo	$190,000	$242	55
3400 College Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0	802 (+8%)	6mo	$169,900	$212	52
623 Hood St	0.72mi	2/1.0	775 (+4%)	9mo	$143,000	$185	52
4637 Fairmont Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	834 (+12%)	1mo	$148,000	$177	44
209 College Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	853 (+15%)	3mo	$154,900	$182	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-23,825
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-12,840
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,144 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,035/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,183

Max offer price $144,435

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $11	+0% $-31	+5% $-73	+10% $-116
Rent	-10% $-121	-5% $-76	+0% $-31	+5% $14	+10% $59
Rate	-1.0pp $45	-0.5pp $7	base $-31	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1218 Shirley Rd Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	742	$950	$1.28	23d	1	0.06mi
202 Macon St Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.0	645	$1,195	$1.85	45d	1	0.75mi
1501 Granville St Unit B Lynchburg, VA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,200	$2.40	15d	1	1.16mi
2245 Landover Pl Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	925	$870	$0.94	45d	2	1.38mi
2734 Fort Ave Lynchburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,450	$1.66	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-15
   price $149,900 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Don't miss this opportunity! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for you to move in. Highlights include fresh paint throughout, new appliances, granite countertops, updated cabinetry, and a modern bathroom with a tile shower. Ideally located close to shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home combines convenience with charm. Perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking for a turnkey property in a great location!

2. 2026-04-01
   price $159,900 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Don't miss this opportunity! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for you to move in. Highlights include fresh paint throughout, new appliances, granite countertops, updated cabinetry, and a modern bathroom with a tile shower. Ideally located close to shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home combines convenience with charm. Perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking for a turnkey property in a great location!

3. 2026-03-07
   price $164,000 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Don't miss this opportunity! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for you to move in. Highlights include fresh paint throughout, new appliances, granite countertops, updated cabinetry, and a modern bathroom with a tile shower. Ideally located close to shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home combines convenience with charm. Perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking for a turnkey property in a great location!

4. 2026-02-19
   price $165,000 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Don't miss this opportunity! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for you to move in. Highlights include fresh paint throughout, new appliances, granite countertops, updated cabinetry, and a modern bathroom with a tile shower. Ideally located close to shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home combines convenience with charm. Perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking for a turnkey property in a great location!

5. 2026-01-13
   price $167,900 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Don't miss this opportunity! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for you to move in. Highlights include fresh paint throughout, new appliances, granite countertops, updated cabinetry, and a modern bathroom with a tile shower. Ideally located close to shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home combines convenience with charm. Perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking for a turnkey property in a great location!

6. 2026-01-06
   price $168,900 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Don't miss this opportunity! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for you to move in. Highlights include fresh paint throughout, new appliances, granite countertops, updated cabinetry, and a modern bathroom with a tile shower. Ideally located close to shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home combines convenience with charm. Perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking for a turnkey property in a great location!

7. 2025-12-10
   listed $169,900 Active 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Don't miss this opportunity! This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for you to move in. Highlights include fresh paint throughout, new appliances, granite countertops, updated cabinetry, and a modern bathroom with a tile shower. Ideally located close to shopping, dining, and local amenities, this home combines convenience with charm. Perfect for first-time buyers or anyone looking for a turnkey property in a great location!

8. 1968-08-21
   soldstatus $8,000
9. 1960-09-03
   soldstatus $7,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,035 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,229 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$194/yr (+$16/mo · 18.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,035
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,098
• − Management: −$1,098
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,009
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$722
• After-tax cash flow: $351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1898.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $149,900 LMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $159,900 LMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $164,000 LMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $165,000 LMLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $167,900 LMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $168,900 LMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $169,900 LMLS
• 1968-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records
• 1960-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,035 · +52.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.