866 Ridge Trl · Mentor, MI 48647

$49,900

3 bd · None ba · 642 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

0.88 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the outdoors with this rustic cabin situated on 0.88 acres. This partially finished cabin offers a great opportunity to create your own hunting retreat, weekend getaway, or recreational base camp. The property has electrical wiring run throughout the cabin, but service will need to be reconnected. Heating is provided by a wood stove, creating a cozy atmosphere after a day spent outdoors. This rustic property does have an outhouse located on the property. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate the convenient location near the beautiful Au Sable River, offering excellent opportunities for fishing, tubing, kayaking, and canoeing. The property is also close to local ORV trails, providing

Key facts

• Local orv trails
• Electrical wiring
• Wood stove

Tags

• 0.88 ACRES
• ELECTRICAL WIRING
• WOOD STOVE
• OUTHOUSE
• AU SABLE RIVER
• LOCAL ORV TRAILS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: No public water source; Other sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Dirt and gravel road access; 0.88-acre lot

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Wood heating; Wood stove
• Interior features: Wood burning stove
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hook-ups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $430 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($935 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mio-Ausable Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #351 of 540 in MI (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Oscoda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oscoda County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $49,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.95%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $19,305
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $52,057
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48647

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $935 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $308/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $390

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $458	-5% $444	+0% $430	+5% $416	+10% $402
Rent	-10% $356	-5% $393	+0% $430	+5% $467	+10% $504
Rate	-1.0pp $455	-0.5pp $443	base $430	+0.5pp $417	+1.0pp $404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,900 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $49,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $308 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $538 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: +$230/yr (+$19/mo · 74.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,215
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$308
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$897
• − Management: −$897
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $4,616
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,108
• After-tax cash flow: $4,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mio-Ausable Schools
• NCES district ID: 2624000
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,216
• Composite: 26.35/100
• National rank: #7236
• State rank: #351 of 540 in MI

Livability — Mentor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,044

Population outlook (Oscoda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,410 people
• By 2030: 6,884 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 5,853 · -21.0%
• By 2050: 5,055 · -31.8%
• By 2075: 3,832 · -48.3%
• By 2100: 2,863 · -61.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · German/W. Germanic 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oscoda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.3) · D 27.2% · R 71.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: -10.0pp · 2024: -44.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.3 2020: R+43.6 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.34%
• Current HPI: 176.2398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $49,900 WWMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $308 · -21.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.