9967 Sterling Place Dr · Conroe, TX 77303

$240,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2011 6,525 sqft lot $122/sqft · at area comps Est $234k · at est. $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to 9967 Sterling, situated in the charming Sterling Place community in Conroe, Texas, and zoned to Conroe ISD. This inviting two-story residence offers 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 1 half bath, a convenient 2-car garage, and a spacious backyard complete with an oversized covered patio. This home features an open-concept layout with a bright living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and breakfast room—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find a generously sized primary suite with a large walk-in closet and a roomy ensuite bath, along with three additional well-sized secondary bedrooms. Spend your weekends relaxing or hosting gatherings on th

Key facts

• New appliances
• Large walk-in closet
• No back neighbors

Tags

• OVERSIZED COVERED PATIO
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• NEW APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Sterling Place homeowners association; Annual association fee of $462

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces southwest; Built in 2011; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fenced backyard; Located in a subdivision; Has additional parcel(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (approx. 14x13); Three additional bedrooms on second level (approx. 12x10, 11x10, 11x10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Low emissivity windows; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room on first level (approx. 8x5)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $241k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-391/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patterson El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 977 students, 74% FRL); Bozman Int (math 44% / reading 40%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 988 students, 68% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 34% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,367 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,072
• List price: $240,990
• Delta: 2.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9807 Gulfstream Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,838 (-7%)	19mo	$257,300	$140	63
10028 Sterling Place Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,821 (-8%)	20mo	$250,000	$137	62
9794 Gulfstream Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,692 (-14%)	14mo	$223,900	$132	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-47,582
• Equity at exit: $35,932

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-69,031
• Equity at exit: $20,836

Cash invested: $67,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,244 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,264
• Tax from tax record: −$402 /mo · $4,823/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,285

Max offer price $235,233

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $36	+0% $-33	+5% $-101	+10% $-169
Rent	-10% $-210	-5% $-121	+0% $-33	+5% $56	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $29	base $-33	+0.5pp $-95	+1.0pp $-159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,248
• Closing costs: $7,230
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10005 Sterling Place Dr Conroe, TX	5.0	2.5	2305	$2,250	$0.98	3d	1	0.06mi
11085 Pine Acre Trails Blvd Conroe, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1458	$1,799	$1.23	6d	1	1.04mi
10594 Rustling Oaks Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	2560	$2,350	$0.92	45d	1	1.12mi
994 Arbor Xing Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,890	$1.17	14d	1	1.31mi
10726 Sunlit St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,100	$0.79	18d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,990 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,990 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,990 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,990 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,990 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,990 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,990 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,990 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,990 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,990 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,990 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,990 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,990 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,990 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    listed $240,990 Active 1006-char remark
16. 2026-04-21
    historical
17. 2026-03-18
    price $245,900
18. 2026-03-09
    listed $249,990 Active
19. 2026-03-09
    historical
20. 2025-12-20
    listed $249,990 Active
21. 2025-09-13
    historical
22. 2025-08-05
    listed $265,000 Active
23. 2025-08-05
    historical
24. 2025-03-07
    status Active
25. 2025-03-03
    status Option Pending
26. 2025-02-01
    listed $270,000 Active
27. 2025-01-30
    historical
28. 2024-07-30
    listed $260,960 Active
29. 2021-09-16
    soldstatus
30. 2021-09-13
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2021-07-18
    status Pending
32. 2021-07-09
    status Option Pending
33. 2021-07-08
    historical
34. 2021-07-08
    listed $239,900 Active
35. 2021-06-27
    listed $239,900 Active
36. 2021-06-27
    historical
37. 2021-06-24
    listed $244,900 Active
38. 2020-06-12
    soldstatus
39. 2020-06-11
    soldstatus Sold
40. 2020-05-09
    status Pending
41. 2020-04-28
    status Option Pending
42. 2020-03-22
    listed $205,000 Active
43. 2010-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,823 · $402/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,823 · $402/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,499
• − Property taxes: −$4,823
• − Insurance: −$1,205
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,154
• − Management: −$2,154
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$7,011
• Taxable loss: −$4,389
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,053
• After-tax cash flow: $662/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+17.6% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $240,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $245,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-20 Listed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2025-09-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-03-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-02-01 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-30 Listed $260,960 HARMLS
• 2021-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-07-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-08 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2021-07-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-06-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-06-27 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2021-06-24 Listed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2020-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-06-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-05-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-22 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2010-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,823 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.