1405 Northview Ln · Josephine, TX 75173

$379,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,036 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 9,017 sqft lot $187/sqft · 10% below area Est $424k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Holly is a functional and inviting floor plan, encompassing 2,036 square feet with four bedrooms and three bathrooms. Its open-concept family room and kitchen are filled with natural light, creating a cozy space for family gatherings and casual entertaining. The design is practical, ensuring comfortable living and efficient use of space. The primary suite includes a sizable bedroom and a walk-in closet with direct access to the laundry room, adding convenience to the layout. The additional three bedrooms offer flexibility for family, work, or guests. A key feature is the rear patio, providing a serene outdoor space for relaxation. Overall, The Holly is an ideal choice for those seeking a straightforward, comfortable home. Attached photos are representative of the floor plan and may show non-standard features and upgrades. Renderings may be photo-realistically enhanced for visualization. Please see New Home Sales Consultant for details.

Key facts

• 9,017 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder listing; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Financing accepted: Cash, Conventional, FHA, Texas Vet, USDA Loan, VA Loan
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; New construction (incomplete, built 2026)
• Construction: New construction (2026)
• Exterior features: Lot in Meadow Ridge Estates; Lot less than 0.5 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Additional/other appliance
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on one level); Primary bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; Double vanity; Walk-in closet(s); Six total rooms (including living, dining, bedrooms, office)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups likely present (standard for new construction)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-999 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (38.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (45.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $205,923 (45.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.27%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,787
• List price: $379,990
• Delta: -10.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
306 Timber Ridge Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,160 (+6%)	2mo	$419,900	$194	78
1700 Rolling Meadow Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,105 (+3%)	4mo	$364,995	$173	74
300 Concord Ct	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,095 (+3%)	2mo	$297,990	$142	69
1476 Meadowbrook Ln	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,007 (-1%)	13mo	$425,000	$212	63
819 Lexington	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,095 (+3%)	10mo	$273,990	$131	61
2010 Creekview Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,054 (+1%)	11mo	$425,000	$207	52
1785 Meadowbrook Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,000 (-2%)	24mo	$439,900	$220	49
1527 Meadowbrook Ln	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,272 (+12%)	13mo	$619,000	$272	48
900 Lexington Ln	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,827 (-10%)	17mo	$254,990	$140	33
2008 Meadowbrook Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,279 (+12%)	10mo	$474,990	$208	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $143,342
• Equity at exit: $342,325

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.44×
• Total profit: $472,229
• Equity at exit: $738,237

Cash invested: $106,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,059 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$475 /mo · $5,700/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-999

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,324

Max offer price $235,400

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-737	-5% $-868	+0% $-999	+5% $-1,131	+10% $-1,262
Rent	-10% $-1,162	-5% $-1,081	+0% $-999	+5% $-918	+10% $-837
Rate	-1.0pp $-808	-0.5pp $-903	base $-999	+0.5pp $-1,098	+1.0pp $-1,198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,998
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	11d	1	1.17mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	7d	1	1.23mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	16d	1	1.23mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	45d	1	1.26mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	25d	1	1.44mi
831 Lexington Ln Nevada, TX	4.0	2.5	2089	$2,095	$1.00	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $379,990 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,990 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,990 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,990 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,990 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,990 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,990 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,990 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,990 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,990 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $379,990 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,990 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,990 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,990 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,990 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $379,990 Active 953-char remark

    Show marketing remark (953 chars)

    The Holly is a functional and inviting floor plan, encompassing 2,036 square feet with four bedrooms and three bathrooms. Its open-concept family room and kitchen are filled with natural light, creating a cozy space for family gatherings and casual entertaining. The design is practical, ensuring comfortable living and efficient use of space. The primary suite includes a sizable bedroom and a walk-in closet with direct access to the laundry room, adding convenience to the layout. The additional three bedrooms offer flexibility for family, work, or guests. A key feature is the rear patio, providing a serene outdoor space for relaxation. Overall, The Holly is an ideal choice for those seeking a straightforward, comfortable home. Attached photos are representative of the floor plan and may show non-standard features and upgrades. Renderings may be photo-realistically enhanced for visualization. Please see New Home Sales Consultant for details.

17. 2026-05-07
    listed $379,990 Active 959-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,285
• − Property taxes: −$5,700
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,977
• − Management: −$1,977
• − Depreciation: −$11,054
• Taxable loss: −$19,182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,604
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $379,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Listed $379,990 NTREIS