688 NW Palm Dr · Lake City, FL 32055

$184,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 316 Days on market

Built 1959 10,759 sqft lot Est $206k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The home is currently occupied by a tenant through January 2027. Three-bedroom, one-bath home conveniently located to municipal services. The interior features a remodeled bathroom and kitchen. The kitchen has solid-surface countertops and new stainless appliances. The flooring is original hardwood and ceramic tile. Mostly newer windows, wood baseboards, and chair rail. The hallway has wood wainscot and chair rail. Den has tongue-in-groove wood walls and ceiling. Brand new water heater. Roof cover was replaced less than 15 years ago. Rear yard has an outdoor theatre, a fence, patio, and lanai for gathering with guests. Ample storage areas in carport and attached workshop.

Key facts

• Remodeled bathroom
• Remodeled kitchen
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• REMODELED BATHROOM
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• SOLID-SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Single-story residence; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Wood fencing; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Microwave; Central heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($620/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 316 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $185k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,400 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 316 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,632
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
606 NW Palm Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,457 (-4%)	2mo	$207,750	$143	85
723 NW Palm Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-12%)	1mo	$234,500	$176	73
176 NW Lake Jeffery Rd	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,605 (+6%)	9mo	$215,000	$134	72
1126 NW Ashley St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-4%)	4mo	$194,000	$134	66
559 NW Gwen Lake Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+8%)	10mo	$222,000	$136	59
536 NW Shelby Ter	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,670 (+10%)	6mo	$165,000	$99	59
294 SW Columbia Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+1%)	2mo	$225,000	$147	59
325 NW Burk Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,684 (+11%)	15mo	$159,000	$94	53
664 NW Ridgewood Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-7%)	14mo	$279,900	$200	49
822 NW Springdale Gln	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-7%)	16mo	$205,000	$146	40
773 SW Bali Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+14%)	13mo	$235,000	$136	40
361 NW Jefferson St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-12%)	15mo	$117,463	$88	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $103,947
• Equity at exit: $166,573

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.86×
• Total profit: $303,432
• Equity at exit: $359,220

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32055

• Home prices YoY: 24.1%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,544 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,457/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,479

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $104	+0% $52	+5% $-1	+10% $-53
Rent	-10% $-70	-5% $-9	+0% $52	+5% $113	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $99	base $52	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $184,900 Active 316 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 315 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 314 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 313 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 312 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $184,900 Active 310 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $184,900 Active 309 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 306 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,900 Active 305 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,900 Active 304 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $184,900 Active 301 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 300 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 299 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 298 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 297 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $184,900 Active 296 DOM
17. 2026-04-12
    historical
18. 2026-03-10
    price $184,900
19. 2026-02-04
    price $184,900
20. 2025-11-18
    listed $189,000 Active
21. 2025-10-08
    price $189,000
22. 2025-10-01
    listed $189,000 Active
23. 2025-08-07
    listed $199,000 Active
24. 2023-12-28
    price $204,900
25. 2023-11-18
    listed $215,000 Active
26. 2012-10-01
    soldstatus $74,000
27. 1985-11-01
    soldstatus $37,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,457 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,535 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$77/yr (+$6/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$1,457
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,482
• − Management: −$1,482
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$2,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$613
• After-tax cash flow: $1,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• City population: 40,507
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,559
• Household income: $61,111
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 391.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 29% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 67.79%
• Current HPI: 348.8923
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+393.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $184,900 DGLMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $184,900 NFMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $189,000 DGLMLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $189,000 NFMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $189,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $199,000 NFMLS
• 2023-12-28 Price Changed $204,900 NFMLS
• 2023-11-18 Listed $215,000 NFMLS
• 2012-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 1985-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,457 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.