Hickory Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$319,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,334 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Boasting an open-concept layout consisting of four large bedrooms, and 2.5 bathrooms, the Hickory home is nothing short of practical! Entering the home, you are greeted by the foyer area and convenient downstairs powder room. You are then led to the central area of the home featuring the combined kitchen and dining area. The kitchen includes plenty of countertop space with an island, granite countertops, designer light fixtures, and industry-leading appliances. Facing the kitchen & dining area is the spacious family room with access to the backyard - if you'd love to enjoy a cup of coffee outside in the morning, opt to include a covered patio! Completing the first floor is the large master suite. The attached master bathroom includes a super shower, cultured marble countertops, as well as a huge walk-in closet. Upstairs resides the game room, perfect for the kids, three additional bedrooms with walk-in closets, and another full bathroom. With enough room to sprawl out, the Hickory plan is perfectly sized to accommodate most any sized family!

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Foyer area
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FOYER AREA
• DOWNSTAIRS POWDER ROOM
• PLENTY OF COUNTERTOP SPACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• DESIGNER LIGHT FIXTURES

🏗️ New construction. The $319,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $394,186.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-468 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,856/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $281,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.09%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $394,186
• List price: $319,990
• Delta: -18.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2921 Mariner Island Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,081 (-11%)	1mo	$375,990	$181	70
3406 Bright Keel Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,582 (+11%)	0mo	$396,990	$154	67
3214 Bolt Rope Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,452 (+5%)	1mo	$339,990	$139	66
14121 Baikal Manor Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,214 (-5%)	1mo	$349,990	$158	64
2417 Arbor Edge Xing	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,204 (-6%)	0mo	$345,000	$157	61
3315 Hidden Mist Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,160 (-8%)	1mo	$344,990	$160	59
2221 Lake Mist Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,178 (-7%)	0mo	$326,900	$150	58
13009 Oleander Bay Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,040 (-13%)	0mo	$325,000	$159	55
2725 Arbor Edge Xing	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,174 (-7%)	0mo	$339,500	$156	55
14117 Baikal Manor Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,063 (-12%)	1mo	$312,990	$152	54
13602 Hartwell Bend Dr	0.34mi	4/4.0	2,679 (+15%)	1mo	$499,990	$187	53
2307 Sweet Bay Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,671 (+14%)	1mo	$309,900	$116	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-90,879
• Equity at exit: $58,774

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-105,809
• Equity at exit: $34,082

Cash invested: $110,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,856 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,067
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$493 /mo · $5,913/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $-468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,448

Max offer price $326,476

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,547
• Closing costs: $11,826
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	1d	1	0.55mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	22d	1	0.93mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	11d	1	1.10mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	5d	1	1.20mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	11d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,990 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,990 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,990 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,990 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,990 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,990 Active 434 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,990 Active 433 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,990 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $319,990 Active 429 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,990 Active 428 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,990 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,990 Active 426 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,990 Active 425 DOM
14. 2025-06-04
    price $319,990 1063-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1063 chars)

    Boasting an open-concept layout consisting of four large bedrooms, and 2.5 bathrooms, the Hickory home is nothing short of practical! Entering the home, you are greeted by the foyer area and convenient downstairs powder room. You are then led to the central area of the home featuring the combined kitchen and dining area. The kitchen includes plenty of countertop space with an island, granite countertops, designer light fixtures, and industry-leading appliances. Facing the kitchen & dining area is the spacious family room with access to the backyard - if you'd love to enjoy a cup of coffee outside in the morning, opt to include a covered patio! Completing the first floor is the large master suite. The attached master bathroom includes a super shower, cultured marble countertops, as well as a huge walk-in closet. Upstairs resides the game room, perfect for the kids, three additional bedrooms with walk-in closets, and another full bathroom. With enough room to sprawl out, the Hickory plan is perfectly sized to accommodate most any sized family!

15. 2025-04-01
    listed $322,990 Active 1063-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1063 chars)

    Boasting an open-concept layout consisting of four large bedrooms, and 2.5 bathrooms, the Hickory home is nothing short of practical! Entering the home, you are greeted by the foyer area and convenient downstairs powder room. You are then led to the central area of the home featuring the combined kitchen and dining area. The kitchen includes plenty of countertop space with an island, granite countertops, designer light fixtures, and industry-leading appliances. Facing the kitchen & dining area is the spacious family room with access to the backyard - if you'd love to enjoy a cup of coffee outside in the morning, opt to include a covered patio! Completing the first floor is the large master suite. The attached master bathroom includes a super shower, cultured marble countertops, as well as a huge walk-in closet. Upstairs resides the game room, perfect for the kids, three additional bedrooms with walk-in closets, and another full bathroom. With enough room to sprawl out, the Hickory plan is perfectly sized to accommodate most any sized family!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,081
• − Property taxes: −$5,913
• − Insurance: −$1,971
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,742
• − Management: −$2,742
• − Depreciation: −$11,467
• Taxable loss: −$12,644
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,034
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minimal repairs and maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be landscaping, upgrading light fixtures, and painting interior walls to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both upgrading light fixtures — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both painting interior walls — refreshes the interior and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both upgrading light fixtures — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both painting interior walls — refreshes the interior and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $319,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Listed $322,990 Zillow