3859 153rd St · Midlothian, IL 60445

$265,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,277 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1959 Est $223k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home full of character and potential! Features include a deep driveway with gated access to the 2-car garage, ceiling fans in all bedrooms. Inside, you'll find carpet throughout with original hardwood floors underneath waiting to be brought back to life. Spacious rooms and a functional layout provide a great opportunity for updates and personal touches to make this home your own. Conveniently located and being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Ceiling fans
• Cozy fireplace
• Functional layout

Tags

• DEEP DRIVEWAY
• COZY FIREPLACE
• CEILING FANS
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership: Fee simple
• HOA & community: No master association fees required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Asphalt driveway; Two parking spaces total
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story
• Construction: Stone exterior; Built approximately 61–70 years ago; Built before 1978
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.25 acre; School bus service, commuter bus and train access, interstate access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (13 x 15); Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (14 x 16); Bedroom on main level (11 x 14); Bedroom on main level (11 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet in living room and bedrooms; Laminate flooring in kitchen
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Crawl space basement; Electric fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (11 x 14); Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($547/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.0% in Midlothian — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#133 in IL, #2,433 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-.
• Bremen Chsd 228 (suburban): math 15% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #468 of 620 in IL (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Central Park Elem School (math 4% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,611 of 2,056 statewide, top 79%, 646 students, 0% FRL); Bremen High School (math 8% / reading 11%, grade F, #577 of 693 statewide, top 84%, 1,497 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $243,686 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.74%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,475
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15222 Hamlin Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,412 (+11%)	3mo	$235,000	$166	66
15043 Tripp Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,269 (-1%)	4mo	$240,000	$189	65
15435 Hamlin Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,107 (-13%)	3mo	$155,000	$140	65
15235 Lawndale Ave	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,394 (+9%)	7mo	$175,000	$126	62
15215 Hamlin Ave	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,405 (+10%)	7mo	$239,000	$170	61
15120 Springfield Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,127 (-12%)	1mo	$236,000	$209	58
15053 Lawndale Ave	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,379 (+8%)	7mo	$247,500	$179	55
15450 Millard Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,435 (+12%)	5mo	$245,000	$171	54
15100 Avers Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,123 (-12%)	6mo	$242,000	$215	52
14903 Terrace Ln	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,400 (+10%)	2mo	$245,000	$175	50
14949 Avers Ave	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,436 (+12%)	5mo	$141,000	$98	42
4326 151st St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,158 (-9%)	6mo	$235,000	$203	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-39,973
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-30,800
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60445

• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,437 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$379 /mo · $4,553/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,379

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $196	-5% $121	+0% $46	+5% $-29	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-147	-5% $-51	+0% $46	+5% $142	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $113	base $46	+0.5pp $-23	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3952 153rd St Midlothian, IL	4.0	2.0	1677	$2,396	$1.43	0d	1	0.10mi
15544 Kilpatrick Ave Oak Forest, IL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1630	$3,195	$1.96	0d	2	1.01mi
14547 Keystone Ave #12 Midlothian, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	1d	1	1.09mi
4800 W 157th St Oak Forest, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1151	$2,660	$2.31	0d	3	1.19mi
4800 157th St Oak Forest, IL	2.0	2.0	1031	$2,660	$2.58	0d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $265,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,553 · $379/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,284 · $440/mo
• Expected delta: +$731/yr (+$61/mo · 16.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$4,553
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,339
• − Management: −$2,339
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$3,868
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$928
• After-tax cash flow: $1,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bremen Chsd 228
• NCES district ID: 1707050
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,625
• Composite: 15.32/100
• National rank: #9327
• State rank: #468 of 620 in IL

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #2433

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, IL
• City population: 14,445
• Population (ZIP): 14,445

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.69%
• Current HPI: 197.4879
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $265,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $4,553 · +863.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.